The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic vs. Los Angeles Lakers – $12,000 DraftKings, $10,800 FanDuel
Despite a couple of disappointing games in a row, we still make Doncic, the highest-ceiling player on the slate at point guard, given his great matchup with a soft Lakers defense led by Russell Westbrook. We have his upside set near 75 points, which is far greater than the other options on this slate.
Top Value: Patrick Beverley vs. Golden State Warriors – $5,000 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel
Beverley has been seeing good run for the Timberwolves, and despite the return of Malik Beasley on Monday, he still saw over 29 minutes. Given his consistent production from a DFS standpoint and his minutes projection which sits around 30, it’s no surprise he once again grades out as a projected 6X play.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Jaylen Brown vs. Atlanta Hawks – $8,700 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel
Brown has combined for 50 points, seven rebounds, and eight assists in his last two games and will once again meet a bad defense in Atlanta, who allowed 114.1 points per 100 possessions in the month of February, ranking 19th in the league during that time. His upside is in the 50-point range, which doesn’t come anywhere near to the top of the slate but will do just fine at a thin position.
Top Value: Austin Raves vs. Dallas Mavericks – $3,200 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel
Reaves is a must-play on DraftKings as a projected 6X option and still a decent option at under $4K on FanDuel. He’s taken on a starting role and made the most of it, out-performing his projections in three straight before a flop on Sunday against an improved Pelicans defense. This should be a better matchup for him, and should he see the 28 minutes he’s projected for; he should do more than enough to hit salary.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Lebron James vs. Dallas Mavericks – $11,200 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel
The Lakers have been losing lately, but it’s no fault of James, who has been seeing a heavy dose of run and usage and producing for L.A. in the last few weeks. Our model makes his ceiling close to 60 fantasy points in a game which should mean everything to the Lakers.
Top Value: Moses Moody vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – $3,000 DraftKings, $3,500 FanDuel
The Warriors are without Klay Thompson, Andre Iguodala, and potentially Nemanja Bjelica here, which should leave the door open for more Moody minutes. He saw 25 against the Mavericks on Sunday and produced around 12 fantasy points, which would be the bare minimum you’re looking for at $3K. Our model thinks he should be a solidly 5X play with the potential for more.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Pascal Siakam vs. Brooklyn Nets – $8,900 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel
Siakam has the benefit of going against one of the worst defenses in the NBA at the moment in the Brooklyn Nets, who ranked second-worst in efficiency on that end in the month of February. While he managed just 30.75 DraftKings points on Monday against this same team, he did so in 30 minutes and with just two made field goals in 14 tries. His upside here is apparent with that kind of efficiency, and our model has his ceiling set around 60 fantasy points.
Top Value: Carmelo Anthony vs. Dallas Mavericks – $4,800 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel
With Anthony Davis out, Anthony may be the second-best player on the Lakers, or at least their second-best option on offense. He’s seen over 28 minutes in his first two games back from injury, and there’s no reason to think he would see less than that. Our model sets him as a 5-6X play with a hefty 20.7% Usage Projection.
Center
Top Ceiling: Karl-Anthony Towns vs. Golden State Warriors – $10,100 DraftKings, $9,300 FanDuel
The Warriors will be vulnerable inside as long as Draymond Green remains out, and that should open the door for Towns to have a big game against Golden State on Tuesday. Without big names like Jokic and Embiid on the slate, Towns is your highest-ceiling player with upside in the 60-point range, which comes with a hefty 28% Usage Projection.
Top Value: Daniel Gafford vs. Detroit Pistons – $3,600 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel
Gafford should do well to hit 6X here and could even push towards 8X on DraftKings given his recent outings. He’s out-performed his projected total in two straight games by an average of 13 points, seeing 24+ minutes in each and anywhere from 16-30% Usage. With Kristaps Porzingis still out and Vernon Carey, Jr. still questionable, Gafford should be afforded run and usage again here, a combination which is valuable in this price range.
