The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Trae Young vs. New York Knicks – $10,400 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel
Young will return to Madison Square Garden, where he dazzled last season in the playoffs. He wasn’t active for the Hawks’ Christmas Day game at MSG, but he enjoyed the two games the two sides played in Atlanta. Young was able to eclipse 45 fantasy points in both contests, and our model sets his ceiling for this one around 65 points.
Top Value: Alex Caruso vs. Milwaukee Bucks – $4,100 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel
Caruso got a rare starting nod on Monday night, and he sure made the most of it. Playing over 32 minutes, Caruso hit 5X value with over 20 fantasy points. His price has not budged on DraftKings and has actually come down $300 on FanDuel, making it easy to capitalize on his newfound playing time.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: DeMar DeRozan vs. Milwaukee Bucks – $8,600 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel
There’s absolutely no positional agreement between DraftKings and FanDuel, so we’ll slot DeRozan in here, where he’s eligible on the latter. He and Zach LaVine should be in great spots according to our model, even on the second night of a back-to-back, with DeRozan possessing a ceiling over 60 fantasy points. Milwaukee will be in a tough spot on the wings with Kris Middleton out.
Top Value: RJ Hampton vs. Golden State Warriors – $3,900 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel
Hampton has seen 27 or more minutes in four of his last six games and remains a very solid value play no matter when he suits up. He will meet the Warriors — who rank just 15th in defense since the break — with a solid 20% Usage Projection, and our model has him set as a 6X play on Tuesday.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: RJ Barrett vs. Atlanta Hawks – $7,600 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel
It’s time to fire up Barrett in wake of the injury to Julius Randle. The young forward has seen a 6.8% increase in Usage Rate with Randle off the floor this year, and scoring 0.3 more fantasy points per minute. He should be afforded plenty of the ball here, and with that, we have his ceiling set over 50 fantasy points.
Top Value: Javonte Green vs. Milwaukee Bucks – $3,500 DraftKings, $3,500 FanDuel
Don’t be fooled by their 8-3 record, it hasn’t been very easy for the Bucks since the All-Star break on the defensive end. They rank 21st in the NBA, making for a great DFS target. We have already highlighted some good Bulls to target, but Green could be the sneakiest of all, coming off a near-30 minute outing. We have him set for more than enough minutes to hit value, and our model projects he should be a solid 5X play.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Chicago Bulls – $12,100 DraftKings, $11,200 FanDuel
Yes, it is indeed a Giannis slate today — and it could be a big one for the Greek. We have his ceiling set right around 75 fantasy points against a Chicago team entering the second night of a back-to-back and one allowing 47.8% shooting in the paint since the All-Star break. Antetokounmpo — assuming he plays with the probable tag — is one of the two highest-upside options on the slate.
Top Value: Obi Toppin vs. Atlanta Hawks – $3,200 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel
With the Knicks missing Randle and still without Nerlens Noel, Toppin is expected to take on the lion’s share of minutes at power forward as the team tries to get its youngsters some run in what’s turned into a lost season. Toppin’s projection at this salary could make him an 8X play on tonight’s short slate, meaning he’ll be a must-roster.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $12,400 DraftKings, $11,500 FanDuel
According to our numbers, Jokic actually edges out Antetokounmpo in the ceiling department, though both are right up there around 80 fantasy points. The big man isn’t in the best matchup in the world, but given his Usage Projection — which sits around 30% — he should have more than enough of the ball to go off on Tuesday night.
Top Value: Jericho Sims vs. Atlanta Hawks – $3,100 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel
Well, this is what happens on a short slate. One injury can drive up the value of several players, and Sims should be one of them without the minutes and Usage that Randle is normally afforded. While he’s not going to boom like Barrett and Toppin may, Sims is a rare center under $4K who should bring home 5X value. As a better rebounder than Toppin, he should be able to clean up on the glass without Randle there to steal his boards.
