The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Trae Young at Utah Jazz – $9,700 DraftKings
Currently second in projected ceiling despite being the fifth-most expensive player on the slate is Hawks point guard Trae Young. He is the only playing in the league averaging double-digit assists with a career-high 12 per game. Over his last four games, Young has been much more aggressive offensively, with three 30-point games while still averaging double-digit assists. During that four-game stretch, he is averaging 52.8 DraftKings points per game. His double-double odds on DraftKings sportsbook are -425 tonight.
Young will look to continue his excellent play in a favorable matchup against the Jazz, who have the worst defensive rating in the league at 118.3 this season. Jalen Johnson remains out, which will put more pressure on Young to deliver offensively. This game environment is the best on the slate, with a 236.5-point total. The Hawks are 6.5-point road favorites implied for a slate-high 121.75 points. Play Young.
Top Value: Isaiah Collier vs. Atlanta Hawks – $4,200 DraftKings
Sticking in the same game environment, Jazz rookie Isaiah Collier is expected to draw his fourth start of the season. The Jazz are playing without Jordan Clarkson, Keyonte George, and John Collins, while Lauri Markkanen is listed as questionable with a back injury. With those three off the floor this season, Collier has led the Jazz with a team-high 169 minutes, and his usage rate has increased by +4.06% (per our Trends tool).
Projected to play 30 minutes tonight, Collier has the third-highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate at his cheap $4,200 price tag. The Hawks are a strong matchup for opposing guards. They rank second in the league in both pace and assists allowed at 28.8 per game. In Collier’s three starts this year, he is averaging 21.4 DraftKings points per game. In this spot, expect an impactful game from the cheap Jazz point guard.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Anthony Edwards at New Orleans Pelicans – $8,400 DraftKings
It has been back-to-back ceiling performances from Anthony Edwards and we are going right back to the well again tonight. The electric shooting guard has averaged 45 points, 6.5 rebounds, and five assists per game while shooting 50% from the field and 57.1% from behind the arc, with a 39.7% usage rate in his last two games. Edwards exceeded 60 DraftKings points in both games and is set up for another ceiling game.
The Timberwolves are 5.5-point road favorites against the Pelicans, who have the second-worst defensive rating this season. They have been torched on the perimeter allowing 14.1 3-pointers made per game. That suits Edwards perfectly who is averaging a career-high 4.2 3-pointers made while shooting 42.2% from distance. He is simply on a heater and taking matters into his own hand,s and we need exposure.
Top Value: Collin Sexton vs. Atlanta Hawks – $6,000 DraftKings
Another Jazz backcourt player to target is Collin Sexton. He leads all players in projected Plus/Minus and is projected for a slate-high 45% ownership. Sexton has been one of the best value guards over the last nine games. Over that time, he has a positive Plus/Minus in eight games while averaging 37.6 DraftKings points per game. He has at least 30 DraftKings points in each of those games displaying his consistency.
With Jordan Clarkson, Keyonte George, and John Collins off the floor this season, Sexton has posted a +9.25 DraftKings Plus/Minus. Sexton is by far the best value play on the slate, and every cash game lineup needs to start with him. Most of Sexton’s fantasy production has come from scoring the ball, but he has averaged six assists in his last nine games with one double-double. However, with a 29.1% usage rate Sexton is filling up the scoreboard with 21.7 points per game over that time. Do not get cute; play Sexton.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum at Denver Nuggets – $10,000 DraftKings
At the small forward position, Jayson Tatum is the clearcut top pay-up option. He has a projected ceiling of nearly 15 fantasy points more than the next closest small forward. The Celtics are fully healthy, but they are still run through Tatum. He leads the team in points, rebounds, and assists per game this season while averaging nearly a points and rebounds double-double. He also leads the Celtics with a 30.8% usage rate.
This matchup against the Nuggets features the last two NBA Champions, who are still at the top of the league. This game has the second-highest total on the slate at 235.5 points, with the Celtics being 5.5-point road favorites. Even with the Celtics healthy and being priced at $10,000, Tatum is still drawing over 20% projected ownership. There is plenty of value to play him and another stud on this seven-game slate.
Top Value: Amen Thompson at Washington Wizards – $6,600 DraftKings
Second-year-pro Amen Thompson has turned into one of the best two-way players in the league since joining the Rockets starting lineup. Over his last five games, Thompson has three points and rebounds double-doubles with nine blocks and one steal in every game. During that stretch, he is averaging 15.2 points, 10.6 rebounds, and 38.5 DraftKings points per game. He is a phenomenal value play in all formats.
The 23-12 Rockets are the only team on the slate that is favored by double-digit points. It helps they are playing on the road against the Wizards who are a league-worst 6-27 this season, while ranking 28th in defensive rating. They also rank 26th in rebounding percentage at 48.3%, making this a great spot for Thompson. He has an opportunity to record another double-double, which will easily pay off his salary.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: LeBron James at Dallas Mavericks – $9,800 DraftKings
LeBron James and Anthony Davis are two of the best contrarian pay-up options on the slate. They are both drawing less than 10% ownership. When deciding between the two, my lean is with James, who is $700 cheaper and has enough left in the tank to provide a ceiling performance. James is coming off a near triple-double last game with 21 points, 13 rebounds, and nine assists for 55.25 DraftKings points.
The Lakers are seven-point road favorites against the Mavericks, who are reeling right now. They have lost five straight games and are still playing without Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. The Mavericks continue to struggle defending the paint, which will benefit James in this matchup. He is projected to have a 30+% usage rate and will likely flirt with another triple-double. He is a fantastic pay-up option in tournaments.
Top Value: Brice Sensabaugh vs. Atlanta Hawks – $4,200 DraftKings
Back to another Jazz value player with power forward Brice Sensabaugh. The last two games have been a coming-out party for Sensabaugh. Despite coming off the bench in back-to-back games, Sensabaugh is averaging a ridiculous 30.5 points per game while shooting 62.2% from the field and 70.6% from behind the arc. He has posted a 32.7% usage rate and is averaging 42.3 DraftKings points per game in that span.
Sensabaugh is projected to play 26 minutes again tonight off the bench but was added to the injury report with an illness. Keep an eye on his status closer to lock, but if he is able to suit up, Sensabaugh is one of the best values on the slate, given his recent play. His ownership is less than 20%, which feels like a steal in this matchup. Sensabaugh is simply playing too well to ignore if he is able to play in this game.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic vs. Boston Celtics – $12,500 DraftKings
The ultimate leverage play on this seven-game slate is Nuggets’ superstar Nikola Jokic. His price tag has risen to $12,500, which may be a strong factor in his less than 5% projected ownership. However, Jokic has been dominant recently. He has posted a double-digit DraftKings Plus/Minus in five of his last six games, which is incredible at his price tag. During that stretch, Jokic is averaging a triple-double with 35 points, 14.8 rebounds, 11 assists, and 77.7 DraftKings points per game. He is an elite play in any matchup.
The Celtics, on paper, may seem like a difficult matchup with the sixth-best defensive rating in the league. However, they are allowing 48.3 points per game in the paint this season, which is below league average defensively. Jokic may be the key to tournaments, especially with how much value is on this slate tonight.
Top Value: Dereck Lively vs. Los Angeles Lakers – $5,100 DraftKings
Ranking second on the slate in projected Plus/Minus is Mavericks’ center Dereck Lively. Not only are Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving unable to play, but starting center Daniel Gafford is also expected to be out after an ankle injury last game. Gafford was forced to leave after playing only eight minutes, and Lively took over finishing with a 14-point, 12-rebound double-double with three blocks in a season-high 33 minutes.
Despite having Anthony Davis, the Lakers’ interior defense has been non-existent this season. They are allowing 52.4 points per game in the paint, which is the third-highest in the league. The Lakers also rank 25th in rebounding percentage. Lively who is projected to play over 30 minutes, will have more than enough time to pay off his $5,100 salary and has a great opportunity to record another double-double.
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