The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features an eight-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Studs
It’s an absolutely loaded slate tonight and it all starts at point guard, where Luka Doncic is the headliner.
Doncic remains a massive bargain at $11,000 on FanDuel — and yeah, you say “just” for a guy averaging 1.76 fantasy points per minute on the season. This is a hammer spot for Doncic against the Suns, a team that passed on him with the No. 1 pick and then fired his former Slovenian coach.
All the better that you get a +3.3 pace differential in your favor and might miss a tough Ricky Rubio matchup too (he’s questionable). Doncic has a huge +7.42 Projected Plus/Minus at FanDuel and is still playable at over +2 at DraftKings.
Trae Young looks like an outstanding option, too. Young is over +4.1 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites and comes with 13 Pro Trends tonight. He has a tough matchup in Toronto, but his upside is almost as high as Doncic’s, so Young makes for an interesting high-leverage pivot play on a slate with a lot of options.
Value
On the opposite end of the salary spectrum, De’Anthony Melton should be an outstanding bargain option. Melton has hit double-digit points in six of eight games and is starting to fill up the box score and earn regular minutes, but he’s still well short of $5,000. Melton is over +5.8 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites and leads all point guards at +8.95 at FanDuel.
Fast Break
Collin Sexton has been a strong fantasy play all season, and tonight is one of his best matchups of the year against a Pelicans team that plays at hyper pace and doesn’t play much defense. Sexton is over +4.5 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites.
Ish Smith continues to get a majority of the point guard minutes for Washington. He’s up to 0.97 fantasy points per minute over the last month, so he’s worth a play if he keeps getting solid minutes, and the numbers say the Bucks are actually a positive fantasy matchup for point guards. He’s at least +5.1 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites.
Shooting Guard
Studs
Shooting guard might be your key lineup decision tonight with a cluster of moderately-price stars giving you the chance to really distinguish your lineup. Devin Booker is the priciest option, and he’s not the strongest play because of it. The Dallas matchup is in his favor and he’s a slightly positive play, but the numbers suggest there are better options.
Issac Baldizon/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Bradley Beal (3) of the Washington Wizards.
Bradley Beal is one such option. Guards can score on Milwaukee so don’t be afraid to play Beal in what should be a high-paced game with plenty of scoring. He gets a little boost with Jordan McRae out, too. Beal is the preferred stud at the position at over +5.4 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites.
Value
Our models love Delon Wright, who’s exceeded expectations in five of his last six. He’s finally found steady minutes over the past three games and the numbers have followed with at least 9 points, 8 rebounds and 4 assists in at least 27 minutes each game. There’s not a huge ceiling here, but Wright is a sure thing bargain and rates as the top shooting guard Projected Plus/Minus at both sites with at least +8.0 on each.
Fast Break
Fred VanVleet has gone over expectations in six straight at FanDuel and is a good bet to do so again in a tasty matchup against the Hawks. He has a 96% Bargain Rating at FanDuel and a huge +8.62 Projected Plus/Minus there.
Jrue Holiday is another good FanDuel bargain option. His scoring can be uneven but the numbers should come easy against Cleveland, and it could be a nice spot for him to rack up some high-value steals against a young back court. He has a +8.41 Projected Plus/Minus there.
Small Forward
Studs
Giannis Antetokounmpo towers over all the other forward options tonight. You know he’s going to be in a lot of lineups against a high-scoring Wizards team that has no real matchup for Giannis. That could mean a chance to fade the Greek Freak, especially considering his fantasy points per minute has dropped from 1.97 on the season to 1.78 over the past month, but he still looks like a positive play. He’s a far better option at FanDuel at +5.89 Projected Plus/Minus.
Value
It looks like Jayson Tatum is out again, so that makes Jaylen Brown one of the better options here. Brown is in a negative matchup against the Heat but that could give you a spot to grab him in a leverage bargain spot. He’s over +6.2 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites and has a higher than usual ceiling with Tatum out.
Fast Break
The top small forward option at FanDuel tonight is Pascal Siakam, who continues to be a bargain as he works his way back to top production after that long injury absence. Siakam had his best game since the injury his last time out with 35 points, and a game against the Hawks is another chance for a big game.
Ronald Cortes/Getty Images. Pictured: Pascal Siakam
Grab him while his salary is still reasonably low. He’s at +8.63 Projected Plus/Minus at FanDuel.
Mikal Bridges remains a strong bargain play at a minimal price. He doesn’t have much of a ceiling since he doesn’t shoot much, but the steals can be a nice bonus and he rates over +4.8 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites.
Power Forward
Studs
Julius Randle is the most expensive stud power forward option at DraftKings, but he’s a far better FanDuel play because of it. Randle benefits from a +1.3 Opponent Plus/Minus against Charlotte and has a pretty nice ceiling. He is a far better FanDuel play at 98% Bargain Rating and +6.42 Projected Plus/Minus.
Bam Adebayo is in a similar spot, in that he’s a better FanDuel. His price and scoring range is similar to Randle’s and our model has them at similar numbers, but Bam is in a much tougher matchup against Boston, so I’d prefer Randle tonight.
Value
Jaren Jackson Jr. is in a great spot against the Nuggets, who have struggled against power forwards all season and offers a +2.98 Opponent Plus/Minus at the position. JJJ is over +3.1 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites and has exceeded expectations in 61% of his games this month, so he’s in a great spot to do so again.
Fast Break
Daniel Theis has the top power forward Projected Plus/Minus at FanDuel at +7.73. Theis should start at center with Enes Kanter out and our model projects him just shy of 30 minutes. Theis has a super tough matchup against Miami but the playing time alone makes him an excellent bargain option at only $5,200.
Personally, I’m playing Zion Williamson until his price tag catches up to his production. Our models are somewhat tepid on Zion. He’s a straight-up avoid at DraftKings at -4.72 Projected Plus/Minus, but at only $6,300 on FanDuel, I’m playing him. That’s an implied 27.68 score, and Zion has gone over that number in all three games with an average +8.66. A matchup against Cleveland leaves no real reason to think Zion slows down tonight.
Center
Studs
Finally, at long last, Nikola Jokic is producing big time fantasy numbers again. Jokic is in a killer spot against the Grizzlies with their +2.34 Opponent Plus/Minus to centers plus a +5.8 pace differential in his favor. Jokic has exceeded expectations in five of six games with double-digit rebounds in each one, plus a pair of triple-doubles. He looks worth the investment tonight at over +3.5 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites.
Joel Embiid is questionable to return from that hand injury. Our model likes Embiid as a bargain at FanDuel, giving him a +5.25 Projected Plus/Minus, but I’m skeptical. There’s no reason to rush Embiid back against the lowly Warriors, and even if he does play, I’m doubtful he gets to his projected 28.1 minutes. I’d stay away until we see a full Embiid game.
Value
Deandre Ayton has a chance to prove his No. 1 pick value tonight against Doncic. Ayton is projected to play 36.7 minutes with Aron Baynes sidelined and that puts him in a monster spot. There’s also sneaky value in his matchup, where Dallas reads as a very difficult matchup but a lot of that was Dwight Powell, who is now sidelined. Ayton is a great play at both sites but a smash spot at +8.34 Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Marquese Chriss continues to be an awesome bargain play at center. Chriss is over +5.0 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites and should see a minutes boost now that Willie Cauley-Stein has been traded, and he could be even better if he avoids playing Embiid (questionable), too.
Cody Zeller has exceeded expectations in 63% of his games this month, and a matchup against the Knicks should continue that trend. Zeller is not a sexy play, but at over +4.7 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites, he’s a nice bargain option that gives you production and lets you spend your cash at other positions.
