The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at Utah Jazz – $10,500 DraftKings, $11,700 FanDuel
Despite being considerably cheaper than Luka Doncic across the industry, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has the highest projected ceiling in our models tonight. He was one rebound shy of his first triple-double of the season last game. He stuffed the stat sheet with 23 points, 14 assists, nine rebounds, three blocks, and two steals in the Thunder’s eight-point overtime victory. It was Gilgeous-Alexander’s fourth consecutive game with a positive Plus/Minus.
The Thunder are three-point road favorites against the Jazz, implied for 121.25 points. This is one of two games on the six-game slate with over a 240-point total. Expect an up-tempo game with both teams ranking inside the top 10 of pace. In his two games against the Jazz, Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 30.5 points per game while shooting 62.5% from the field.
Top Value: Dennis Smith Jr. vs. Dallas Mavericks – $4,200 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel
After missing last game due a foot injury, Dennis Smith Jr. returned and played 31 minutes. He had a great game, finishing with 12 points, eight rebounds, five assists, two steals, and two blocks. His 36 DraftKings points were the third-highest output this season. The Nets have several important players on their injury report that will likely impact Smith Jr’s production. Make sure to monitor the status of Ben Simmons, Cameron Johnson, and Lonnie Walker, who are all questionable to play.
Given that this is the second leg of a back-to-back, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Nets had another short rotation like last night. They basically played seven players, with each getting 27 or more minutes. With how poorly Spencer Dinwiddie has played this season, Smith Jr. has played more minutes than expected in his first year with the Nets. He is projected to play 26 minutes and be one of the best value plays on the slate. This is a great spot that could get better with injury news.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Donte DiVincenzo vs. Memphis Grizzlies – $7,400 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel
With Julius Randle, OG Anunoby, and Quentin Grimes all out for the Knicks, Donte DiVincenzo has needed to increase his scoring output. DiVincenzo has done just that, averaging 26.8 points per game over his last four games. During that time, he had a 26.6% usage rate while attempting at least 15 3-pointers in each contest. DiVincenzo has the highest projected ceiling at the shooting guard position and the second-highest projected Plus/Minus, despite being priced in the mid-range.
DiVincenzo has seen a massive price increase over the past week, but it is deserving due to his recent play. The Grizzlies are one of the best possible matchups for opposing sharpshooters. They are allowing opponents to shoot 37.9% from long distance this season. This is a 14-point spread for the Knicks, but playing for Tom Thibodeau relegates the risk a little bit.
Top Value: Amen Thompson at Indiana Pacers – $4,100 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel
The highest-owned player on the slate is Rockets rookie Amen Thompson. He is currently projected for 73% ownership on FanDuel and 58% on DraftKings. Thompson also has the highest projected Plus/Minus by a wide margin for this six-game slate. Fred VanVleet is out for the Rockets, which is why Thompson looks like such an incredible play. In the one game that Thompson played without VanVleet this season, he recorded a double-double with 15 points, 14 rebounds, and five assists.
Thompson has point guard and shooting guard eligibility on both sites but looks exceptional on DraftKings at his cheap $4,100 price tag. He has a 96% Bargain Rating and is a staple in cash games. Not only will Thompson get more opportunity, but he was already playing well with a positive Plus/Minus in nine of his last 12 games. Don’t get too cute, play Thompson.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Lauri Markkanen vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – $8,600 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel
Leading the Jazz in points and rebounds for the second-straight year, Lauri Markkanen is on his way to another fantastic season. Markkanen is shooting 49.6% from the field and 40.1% from behind the arc while averaging 23.5 points per game. He has been dialed in from long distance, making at least four 3-pointers in four of his last six games. Priced at $8,600 on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Markkanen has double-double upside in what will be a great matchup against the Thunder.
In his one meeting against the Thunder this season, Markkanen posted a double-double with 26 points and 10 rebounds. He shot 7-for-13 from the field and 2-for-4 from downtown while also dishing out four assists. The Thunder continue to rank 28th in rebounding percentage this season at 47.8%. It’s a great spot for Markkanen to post another ceiling performance tonight.
Top Value: Josh Hart vs. Memphis Grizzlies – $6,300 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel
Josh Hart is another Knicks player who will benefit from the absence of Julius Randle, OG Anunoby, and Quentin Grimes. Hart has posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his last six games. He has been a menace on the glass with double-digit rebounds in four-straight games and even had a triple-double against the Jazz a week ago. Hart’s minutes have been spiking up due to the Knicks injuries, and he is also coming off a season-high 16 field goal attempts in his most recent game.
This is a fantastic rebounding matchup for the Hart. The Grizzlies rank 26th in rebounding percentage and struggle mightily on offense. They are averaging a league-low 106.9 points per game while shooting an abysmal 43.7% from the floor. There will be plenty of opportunities for Hart to keep his double-digit rebound streak, and he may flirt with another triple-double.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Pascal Siakam vs. Indiana Pacers – $8,300 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel
The FanDuel slate has the late game involving the Bucks and Suns, which offer two great power forward options in Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant. The DraftKings slate isn’t so lucky, but Pascal Siakam is starting to come into form with his new team. In his 10 games played with the Pacers, Siakam is shooting a career-high 56.2% from the field. With Tyrese Haliburton questionable to play and being limited even if he plays, Siakam will get an added boost to his production.
In the five games Siakam has played without Haliburton on the Pacers, he has averaged a similar usage rate and scoring but has increased his peripherals to 8.0 rebounds and 6.2 assists per game. At $8,300 on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Siakam is a fantastic mid-range play. He is coming off a near triple-double, proving he can provide fantasy points in a variety of ways.
Top Value: Precious Achiuwa vs. Memphis Grizzlies – $5,800 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel
With power forward and center eligibility on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Precious Achiuwa will draw another start for the Knicks. In his four starts with his new team, Achiuwa is averaging a near double-double with 12.3 points and 8.5 rebounds per game. Similar to the other Knicks role players, Achiuwa has been aggressive offensively in his recent games. He is averaging 13.3 field goal attempts per game in his last three contests and has scored double-digit points in each game.
With Jaren Jackson Jr. doubtful to play tonight, that will open the floodgates for the Grizzlies defensive frontcourt. In the three games that Jackson Jr. has missed this season, the Grizzlies defensive rating drops from 114.3 to 117.9. With more opportunities to grab rebounds and score at the rim, Achiuwa is in a phenomenal spot to exceed value on his cheap salary.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Alperen Sengun at Indiana Pacers – $9,000 DraftKings, $9,300 FanDuel
Leading the slate with 13 Pro Trends on DraftKings is Rockets center Alperen Sengun. It has been a great year for the promising young center who is leading the Rockets in scoring and rebounding this season. Sengun has recorded a double-double in nine of his last 10 games and is -130 in the DraftKings sportsbook to capture another one tonight. With the Rockets losing their starting point guard for tonight, it wouldn’t be shocking if Sengun led the team in assists in this matchup.
The Pacers are playing at the second-fastest pace in the league and are allowing 122.4 points per game. They have been dominated by opposing centers all season. Myles Turner is a strong shot-blocker but not a great defender. The Pacers are allowing a league-high 59.9 points per game in the paint this season, setting the stage for a big Sengun performance tonight.
Top Value: Chet Holmgren at Utah Jazz – $7,500 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel
Chet Holmgren has been a boom-or-bust fantasy producer lately, which makes him a strong tournament option. Holmgren has the highest projected Plus/Minus at the center position on FanDuel and the third-highest on DraftKings behind the two Knicks centers. In his rookie season, Holmgren is competing neck-and-neck with Victor Wembanyama for the Rookie of the Year. He is shooting 53.3% from the field while averaging 16.8 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 2.6 blocks per game this season.
Holmgren can utilize his shot-blocking prowess in this matchup against the Jazz. They are allowing 6.5 blocks per game, which is tied for the most in the league. In his two games against the Jazz this season, Holmgren has averaged 15.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 3.5 blocks per game. With the center position so weak tonight, Holmgren can separate with his defense.
