The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic vs. Miami Heat – $12,000 DraftKings, $11,500 FanDuel
Doncic is the hottest player in basketball, scoring 75 fantasy points or more on DraftKings in each of the last two games. With a Usage Rate which has grown in each of the last three contests all the way to 51.8% against the Clippers this weekend, it’s no surprise to see his ceiling set over 70 fantasy points.
Top Value: Shake Milton vs. Boston Celtics – $3,600 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel
With James Harden still out, Milton should be able to comfortably see the 20+ minutes he’s seen in the past two games. Our model has him set at around a 20% Usage Rate, which should be the recipe for a 5X night at the very least. Milton has steadily improved in his first two games back from injury and could break out a bit on Tuesday.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Devin Booker vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $8,400 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel
Booker has a friendly matchup here against a Clippers team ranked fourth-to-last in defensive rating over the last two weeks and one which just got torched by Luka Doncic this weekend. His ceiling is right around 60 fantasy points on both sites, though that is a number he hasn’t hit since late January. This could be the night he breaks back out from a DFS perspective.
Top Value: Duane Washington vs. Milwaukee Bucks – $3,900 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel
The Bucks defense could be a bit weakened here given there are a few injuries on the wings, and Washington should be in a perfect position to capitalize. Our model makes him a near-6X play on a night where he could see 25+ minutes with injuries to Chris Duarte and possibly Malcolm Brogdon.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum vs. Philadelphia 76ers – $9,700 DraftKings, $10,100 FanDuel
The matchup may be a tricky one here against a red-hot Sixers defense, but we’re projecting Tatum at over a 30% Usage Rate in a game he should easily see the 35+ minutes he’s seen over the past two games. He did see 36.2% Usage last time out against Philly and should be in prime position to score the ball.
Top Value: Lance Stephenson vs. Milwaukee Bucks – $4,000 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel
We noted earlier that Chris Duarte will miss this one — and possibly Malcolm Brogdon too — and that could make the eccentric guard an intriguing play. He’s cheaper on DraftKings and eligible at point guard as well, which should help him become one of the best value plays on the entire slate. He went for 30+ fantasy points in 30+ minutes last time out and our model thinks he could hit 8X on DK.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokoumpo vs. Indiana Pacers – $11,800 DraftKings, $11,400 FanDuel
After a lackluster performance against the Suns which was cut short last week, Antetokounmpo should be a prime bounce-back candidate on Tuesday against a slumping Pacers defense — assuming he plays. Milwaukee is dealing with some injuries on the wing which could open the door for Antetokounmpo to get even more of the ball.
Top Value: Nic Batum vs. Phoenix Suns – $3,500 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel
The Clippers have yet to release an injury report as of this writing, but it looks like one or both of Luke Kennard and Norman Powell could miss this game. Batum would become one of the best values of the night at this price if both were to sit, given the fact that he went for over 30 fantasy points last time out in 28 minutes. The sharpshooter won’t need many minutes to hit value given that rate of production and should be deployed given confirmation that even one of those two will miss tonight’s game.
Center
Top Ceiling: Joel Embiid vs. Boston Celtics – $11,600 DraftKings, $11,600 FanDuel
Embiid carries a ceiling of over 70 fantasy points into this one according to our model, which may even be a tad generous. The big man is fresh off an 83-point outing against the Cavaliers and has eclipsed 60 points in five straight. He should be a top option against a Celtics team which has struggled to defend the restricted area all year long.
Top Value: Paul Reed vs. Boston Celtics – $3,100 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel
FanDuel’s pricing seems wise to the fact that Reed is taking on a decent role with the Sixers in wake of Andre Drummond‘s departure, but his price on DraftKings reflects some skepticism. He’s seen 14 minutes per game in the last two games and meets a Celtics team which has the aforementioned issues defending the restricted area. Given the fact he’s been able to post back-to-back 20+ fantasy point outings with such limited playing time, he seems like a worthwhile dart to throw if you’re filling out lineups on DK.
