The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – $8,600 DraftKings
The second-most expensive player with the second-highest projected ceiling for tonight’s four-game slate is Thunder point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The electric guard continues to be one of the best two-way players in the league. He is averaging over 30 points per game while shooting well over 50% from the field for the third straight season. Gilgeous-Alexander also currently leads in NBA MVP voting.
The Thunder have rattled off 11 consecutive wins and remain atop the Western Conference by five games despite not having their center, Chet Holmgren. With Holmgren off the floor, Gilgeous-Alexander has stepped up in a big way, leading the Thunder with a +1.19% usage rate increase and a +1.55 DraftKings Plus/Minus (per our Trends tool). He also has posted 63+ DraftKings points in three of his last four games.
Top Value: Scotty Pippen Jr. at Phoenix Suns – $5,800 DraftKings
The amount of players out for the Grizzlies tonight replicates last season with all their injuries. Ja Morant is the main player who will miss this game and is considered week-to-week. That will open the door for backup point guard Scotty Pippen Jr. to run the show. The third-year pro is projected to start and play 30 minutes. He currently has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate at his $5,800 salary.
Over his last five games, Pippen Jr. is averaging 14.5 points and 29.7 DraftKings points per game while shooting 52.9% from the field and 52.4% from behind the arc. He had an ownership over 70% without Morant last game and will likely lead the slate in ownership this time around. This game against the Suns features the highest total on the slate at 235.5 points, making this the best game environment to target.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Donovan Mitchell at Los Angeles Lakers – $8,400 DraftKings
The Cavaliers are on another winning streak, with a victory in each of their last seven games. In that stretch, they have won by an average of 18.9 points which has limited the playing time for their stars like Donovan Mitchell. Leading the Cavaliers in scoring with 23.6 points per game, Mitchell has played more than 30 minutes twice in their last seven games but has still returned a positive Plus/Minus three times.
If this game is competitive like the line says it will be, then Mitchell will have a fantastic opportunity for a ceiling performance. The Cavaliers are only 4.5-point road favorites against the Lakers, who have won five of their last six games. This matchup also has the second-highest total on the slate at 230.5 points. Priced at $8,400 with point guard and shooting guard eligibility, Mitchell is a strong pay-up option in all formats.
Top Value: John Konchar at Phoenix Suns – $4,200 DraftKings
John Konchar is another Grizzlies value player who looks exceptional on this four-game slate. Due to all the Grizzlies’ injuries, Konchar drew his first start of the season last game and played 34 minutes. He was active in his playing time, especially on the glass, recording a game-high 15 rebounds while adding four points, three steals, two blocks, and one assist. He finished with a season-high 33.75 DraftKings points.
Konchar is projected for the highest Plus/Minus on the slate with guard and forward eligibility. He is easy to fit into all lineup builds and is arguably one of the best values on the slate. Konchar is projected to play 29 minutes, which is more than enough time to pay off his cheap price tag. The best part about Konchar’s last game is that he shot 2-for-8 from the field. If his shot falls in this spot, Konchar will be a great value.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Norman Powell at San Antonio Spurs – $7,400 DraftKings
After recommending Norman Powell last night, it is hard not to go right back to the well again tonight. Powell is only $100 more expensive and draws another favorable matchup against the Spurs. Powell scored a game-high 35 points last night with a 33.2% usage rate. He attempted 27 field goals, including 12 from long distance, while adding two steals for the third-straight game. Powell has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in six straight games and in nine of his last 10. He has been a fantastic option for the Clippers.
Despite being four-point underdogs in a low game total, Powell is still drawing the highest projected ownership at the small forward position due to his recent play. The Spurs have been an average defensive unit on the perimeter, which will lead to a strong game from Powell. His playing time has been absurd. He has 40+ minutes in three of his last four games and is projected for a slate-high 38 minutes tonight.
Top Value: Luke Kennard at Phoenix Suns – $3,800 DraftKings
Back to the Grizzlies’ value, we go with two potential salary savers. This is a choose your fighter option. Rookie Jaylen Wells will draw the start and play more minutes with a higher usage rate. However, his backup, Luke Kennard, is a veteran and more than capable of having a better game than Wells, like last time out, where he scored 16 points while shooting 6-for-12 from the field and 4-for-9 from downtown.
Even if Kennard comes off the bench, he is $500 cheaper than Wells and has recorded 20+ DraftKings points in five of his last seven games. Both options are boom-or-bust tournament plays, but I lean toward the veteran Kennard, who has shot at least 44% from behind the arc in each of his last five seasons. The Suns are also allowing opponents to shoot 36.7% from distance, which is the eighth-highest total in the league.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Kevin Durant vs. Memphis Grizzlies – $9,600 DraftKings
There is a chance that Devin Booker will return from his five-game absence, but Jusuf Nurkic and Royce O’Neale are already ruled out. Keep an eye on Booker’s status because him being out would make Kevin Durant even more of a better play than he already is. Durant is the perfect bring-back for all the Grizzlies chalk. Over his last five games without Booker, Durant is averaging 47.85 DraftKings points per game.
The Grizzlies rank fifth in defensive rating this season but are without a majority of their rotation in tonight’s matchup. Durant should have no trouble getting to his spots and filling up the stat sheet. When Nurkic and Booker are off the floor this season, Durant has a 41.4% usage rate in 195 total minutes, which is a decent sample size. Even if Booker plays, Durant is a strong pay-up option in all lineup builds tonight.
Top Value: Keldon Johnson vs. LA Clippers – $3,500 DraftKings
Moving to the bench this season has dropped Keldon Johnson‘s production a significant amount. However, it has also dropped his price tag to an absurd $3,500, which is the cheapest he has been all season. Johnson is still playing over 20 minutes per game and has posted a positive Plus/Minus in back-to-back games. He has the highest projected Plus/Minus at this position with a 91% bargain rating.
The Clippers have a top-four defensive rating, but that likely won’t matter for Johnson, who does not have to do much to exceed his $3,500 salary. In his last two games, Johnson has averaged 14 points and six rebounds while shooting 5-for-11 in each contest. He has posted a 30% usage rate in those two games while exceeding 20 DraftKings points in both. Johnson is simply too cheap on this four-game slate.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Victor Wembanyama vs. LA Clippers – $11,600 DraftKings
Sticking with the Spurs frontcourt, Victor Wembanyama continues to be a cheat code. Regardless of the matchup, Wembanyama has been dominant. Over his last seven games, he is averaging a near double-double with 30.4 points, 9.6 rebounds, 3.9 assists, and an absurd 5.9 blocks per game. His dominance on both ends of the court are what separate Wembanyama from everyone else. He is the best pay-up option.
The Clippers rank seventh in rebounding percentage and eighth in the least amount of points scored in the paint per game. However, proving that Wembanyama is matchup-proof, he dominated the Clippers’ frontcourt in their only meeting this season with 24 points, 13 rebounds, nine blocks, three assists, and three steals for over 70 DraftKings points. There is so much value on this slate to make it easy to pay up for Wembanyama, and the best part is that he is currently drawing only 5% ownership, which is way too low.
Top Value: Mason Plumlee vs. Memphis Grizzlies – $4,500 DraftKings
With Jusuf Nurkic out, Mason Plumlee will jump right into the starting lineup for the Suns. He started the last game and recorded 25.25 DraftKings points without attempting a single shot. Plumlee did make two free throws for his two points and also captured nine rebounds, six assists, one steal, and one block across 26 minutes. With another 26-minute projection, Plumlee is one of the best center value plays on the slate.
Plumlee has the highest projected Plus/Minus at the center position ahead of both Grizzlies centers, which is saying quite a bit. At $4,500, he is a cheap way to get exposure to this game and makes for a strong bring-back alongside Kevin Durant of the Grizzlies chalk. He may have a less than 10% usage rate, but Plumlee can score DraftKings points in a variety of ways. He is an incredible value play in all formats.
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