The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Utah Jazz – $10,300 DraftKings
Currently, third in the league in scoring, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is putting up another MVP-caliber season. He is averaging 30 points per game while shooting over 50% from the field for the third straight year. Tonight’s eight-game slate has four elite options to pay up for, including two stud point guards. Despite Luka Doncic being $700 more expensive, Gilgeous-Alexander has the higher median projection.
The Thunder are leading a loaded Western Conference with a 15-5 record. They have one of the best matchups on the slate tonight, hosting the Utah Jazz, who rank 29th in defensive rating. The Thunder are 13.5-point favorites, implied for 118.25 points. This is a great spot for Gilgeous-Alexander, who is already on a heater. He has averaged 35 points and 58.9 DraftKings points per game in his last four contests.
With Chet Holmgren still sidelined due to injury, Gilgeous-Alexander leads the Thunder with a +2.05% usage rate boost and a +2.09 DraftKings Plus/Minus (per our Trends tool). He is a great play in all formats.
Top Value: Vasilije Micic vs. Philadelphia 76ers – $4,500 DraftKings
Despite the Hornets playing in the lowest total game and having a slate-low 102 implied point total, they have three of the top four players in projected Plus/Minus. One of the three is the best point guard value available with Vasilije Micic. The Hornets will be playing without LaMelo Ball, Miles Bridges, and Tre Mann tonight. That will open the floodgates for Micic, who is projected to play around 32 minutes.
The Hornets are hosting the 76ers, who are a putrid 4-14 this season. The 76ers are not a strong defense, but they play at the fourth-slowest pace in the league at 97.61. However, priced at $4,500, Micic does not have to do much to pay off his price tag. He has started each of the last two games and averaged 29.75 DraftKings points per game. Micic is the second-most popular player on the slate and a fantastic value.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Brandon Miller vs. Philadelphia 76ers – $8,000 DraftKings
Sticking with the Hornets’ backcourt, Brandon Miller receives a significant boost to his usage rate and production without Ball and Bridges on the court. Even though Miller is priced at $8,000, he has the highest projected ceiling by a solid margin at the shooting guard position for this eight-game slate. Over his last seven games, Miller has filled it up, averaging 27.4 points and 47.6 DraftKings points per game.
With how well Miller has played recently and all of the Hornets’ injuries, it is not surprising that he is projected for a slate-high 35% ownership tonight. In his second year in the league, Miller is averaging career-highs across the board in points, rebounds, and assists per game while leading the team in steals. The 76ers are allowing opponents to shoot 48.1% from the field, making this a strong matchup for Miller.
Top Value: Stephon Castle at Phoenix Suns – $5,100 DraftKings
Stephon Castle has been a valuable asset for the Spurs in his rookie season. Since moving into the starting lineup, Castle is averaging 14.2 points per game and has scored double-digit points in all but two of those 13 games. Castle struggled in his last game, shooting 3-for-12 from the field and accumulating only one assist and one block, but he has posted a positive Plus/Minus in his previous seven games.
The Spurs have won five of their last six games but are 7.5-point road underdogs against the Suns tonight. This game still has a healthy 230-point total, and the Suns are an exploitable matchup, having the 20th-ranked defensive rating. Projected to start and play over 30 minutes again tonight, Castle will have more than enough time to pay off his salary. He looks like an incredible mid-range value option tonight.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Scottie Barnes vs. Indiana Pacers – $8,300 DraftKings
One of the best game environments on the slate is this Eastern Conference matchup between the Pacers and Raptors. With Immanuel Quickley out, the Raptors will rely on Scottie Barnes to do a little bit of everything. With point guard and small forward eligibility, Barnes is easy to fit into all lineup builds. He leads all small forwards in projected ceiling and is another player projected for over 30% ownership.
The Pacers rank sixth in pace and 25th in defensive rating while allowing 119 points per game. They also rank 26th in rebounding percentage. All in all, this is a superb matchup for Barnes. He had a triple-double two games ago and last game was one assist short of another one. Barnes has recorded at least 10 rebounds in each of his last four games. He could easily flirt with another triple-double in this matchup.
Top Value: Ricky Council at Charlotte Hornets – $3,700 DraftKings
Brandon Miller and Scottie Barnes lead all small forwards in projected Plus/Minus, but not too far behind them is 76ers forward Ricky Council. Due to injuries to Caleb Martin and Kyle Lowry, Council has seen a significant boost to his playing time recently. In back-to-back games, Council has played 27 minutes and delivered with 32 and 29.25 DraftKings points. Even with Martin and Lowry probable tonight, it will be difficult not to give Council valuable playing time. Our model still has him projected to play 20 minutes.
With four studs priced well over $10,000, saving salary becomes vitally important. Council can provide that at his $3,700 price tag, and it fits perfectly in a stars and scrubs lineup build. The matchup against a depleted Hornets team is strong; it is all about Council getting his chance in the 76ers rotation tonight.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo at Detroit Pistons – $12,000 DraftKings
Leading all players in projected ceiling is two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo. He did not practice yesterday but is still probable to play tonight’s game. Keep an eye on Giannis’ status to make sure he is in the starting lineup tonight. If he is out, Damian Lillard will become an elite option. Giannis has recorded a triple-double in three of his last six games. Also, in his last seven games, he has averaged a ridiculous 36.1 points, 12 rebounds, 8.4 assists, and 69.4 DraftKings points per game while shooting 60% from the field.
Giannis erupted the last time he played the Pistons in the middle of November. He finished with 59 points, 14 rebounds, seven assists, three blocks, and two steals, scoring 97.5 DraftKings points. The Pistons have been solid defending the paint, but not against Giannis. In that game, he shot 21-for-34 from the field and 16-for-17 from the charity stripe. If he can play, Giannis is the best pay-up option on the slate.
Top Value: Tidjane Salaun vs. Philadelphia 76ers – $3,800 DraftKings
The last Hornets player to recommend is rookie power forward Tidjane Salaun. Priced at $3,800, Salaun is arguably the best pure value play on the slate. He has the third-highest projected Plus/Minus and is projected to start and play 30 minutes. With Miles Bridges out, Salaun has taken full advantage of his extra playing time. He struggled last game, but in his two previous Salaun averaged 15.5 points per game.
There is no doubt that Salaun is a boom-or-bust fantasy producer. He has proven that in the last three games. Salaun shot 0-for-8 in his most recent game and recorded 6.25 DraftKings points. However, in his two previous games, Salaun put up a ceiling with averaging 29.5 DraftKings points per game. The Hornets need Salaun to play big minutes and produce. Expect a bounce-back game for an incredibly cheap value.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Victor Wembanyama at Phoenix Suns – $10,600 DraftKings
Coming off his first triple-double of the season, Victor Wembanyama has the second-highest projected ceiling on this eight-game slate. Wembanyama led the Spurs to their 11th win of the season last game with 34 points, 14 rebounds, and 11 assists. He recorded 80.5 DraftKings points, proving his incredibly high ceiling. He also continues to lead the league for the second straight year with 3.5 blocks per game.
Wembanyama can capture fantasy points in bunches on both ends of the floor. With most gamers going to the mid-range, he is projected for less than 10% ownership tonight. I would recommend getting overweight to Wembanyama in tournaments. The Suns not only rank 20th in defensive rating, but they have allowed 50 points per game in the paint this season, which ranks as the 10th-highest in the league.
Top Value: Jonas Valanciunas at Cleveland Cavaliers – $5,300 DraftKings
It has been a rough season for the Wizards. They are a league-worst 2-16 and have lost 14 consecutive games. Their reward for being so bad? Playing on the road against the best team in the league, who is 11-1 at home this season. The Wizards are 16-point underdogs, but if they want to keep this game remotely close, they will need a huge game from their center, Jonas Valanciunas, against the Cavaliers Twin Towers.
Valanciunas’ playing time has been all over the map, but he is coming off a game where he played a season-high 31 minutes. The Wizards cannot play small against a Cavaliers frontcourt with Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley. Our model takes that into account with Valanciunas projected to play 25 minutes and be the best value center on the slate. Valanciunas has simply played too well recently to keep him on the bench.
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