The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You ‘ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Trae Young at Chicago Bulls – $10,000 DraftKings, $10,100 FanDuel
The consistency of Trae Young makes him the stud to get the most exposure to on this slate. Young has recorded seven consecutive games with 30+ points and 10+ assists. Over that time, he is averaging 32.7 points, 13.3 assists, and 63 DraftKings points per game. His salary has jumped to five figures on DraftKings and FanDuel, but it is deserving since Young has a positive Plus/Minus in each of his last seven games. Young’s consistency makes him a staple in cash games.
Despite Young’s terrific play, the Hawks have lost 10 of their last 14 games and are 1.5-point road underdogs against the Bulls tonight. The Hawks seem to play in great game environments since they play at the fifth-fastest pace in the league.
Young is listed as questionable, so make sure to monitor his status, but with two days of rest, he should be good to go.
Top Value: Coby White vs. Atlanta Hawks – $7,800 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel
Staying in the same game, Coby White has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the point guard position tonight. He has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in nine of his last 12 games. With Zach LaVine out for the last month, White has taken on a much larger role on the offensive end of the court. Using our On/Off tool, White has the highest DraftKings Plus/Minus on the Bulls at +3.44 and the second-highest usage rate at +1.83% with LaVine off the floor this season.
In the 13 games without LaVine, White is averaging 23.7 points, 6.4 assists, and 5.8 rebounds per game, which is nearly double the production. Priced at $7,800 on both DraftKings and FanDuel, White is a fantastic mid-range player to get exposure to in all formats.
The Hawks not only play fast, but they also rank 27th in defensive rating this season at 119.9.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Anthony Edwards at Oklahoma City Thunder – $9,600 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel
Anthony Edwards is coming off just his fourth double-double of the season with 34 points and 10 assists. Always capable of displaying his ceiling, Edwards could see increased usage tonight if Karl-Anthony Towns misses his second straight game with a knee injury. With Towns off the floor this season, Edwards has posted a team-high +2.44% usage rate and a +6.37 DraftKings Plus/Minus. Edwards’ usage rate jumps to 34.8%, which is one of the highest in the league with Towns out.
Despite having the second-best record in the league at 22-6, the Timberwolves are three-point road underdogs against the Thunder. This is an interesting matchup for Edwards, with the Thunder ranking sixth in both pace and defensive rating this season. Even if Towns comes back from injury, Edwards is a strong option at his sub-$ $10,000 price tag on both sites tonight.
Top Value: Devin Vassell vs. Utah Jazz – $7,000 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel
One of the best value plays on FanDuel is Spurs shooting guard Devin Vassell. His $6,400 salary is resulting in a 94% Bargain Rating and the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the slate. Vassell is a typical streaky young shooting guard who can post a variety of fantasy outputs. In the last five games, Vassell has displayed his inconsistencies, with one game scoring 36 points and then following that up with only nine points in his last game. He makes for a great tournament option.
Vassell is second on the Spurs in scoring with 17.9 points per game behind Victor Wembanyama, who is questionable with an ankle injury. This matchup between the Spurs and Jazz has the highest total on the slate at 241.25 points. With so much scoring opportunity in this game environment, Vassell looks like a great value play. Make sure to prioritize him on FanDuel.
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Small Forward
Top Ceiling: DeMar DeRozan vs. Atlanta Hawks – $8,200 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel
Not only does DeMar DeRozan look like one of the best pay-up options on the slate, but he also is a great value at his price tag on both sites. DeRozan has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings and FanDuel tonight. Similar to Coby White, DeRozan has seen his production and usage rate rise with Zach LaVine out of the lineup. In his 12 games without LaVine this season, DeRozan is averaging 23.9 points, 6.8 assists, and 4.4 rebounds per game with a 26% usage.
Since LaVine has not played in a month, DeRozan has a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel in nine of his last 11 games. He leads the FanDuel slate with 12 Pro Trends. DeRozan and White can be played together, especially considering that Nikola Vucevic is questionable for tonight’s game. DeRozan fits in perfectly to a balanced build with upside for a big ceiling game.
Top Value: Franz Wagner at Washington Wizards – $5,700 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel
Franz Wagner‘s salary isn’t far from DeRozan on either site, but he, too is popping as a strong play in all formats. After a difficult stretch of tough opponents, the Magic finally get a cupcake matchup against a Wizards team that leads the league in pace and ranks last in defensive rating. The Magic are 7.5-point road favorites, implied for the highest total on the slate at 122.5 points. Getting exposure to this Magic offense is a necessity, and Wagner is one of the best ways to do it at his salary.
With Markelle Fultz out and Jalen Suggs questionable, Wagner will continue to take on a larger ball handling role. The third-year pro is averaging a career-high in assists and ranks second on the team in scoring with a career-high 20.3 points per game. Wagner will have plenty of chances to stuff the stat sheet against a Wizards defense that can’t stop anyone.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Lauri Markkanen at San Antonio Spurs – $8,600 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel
Lauri Markkanen is finally off his minutes limit, which bodes well for this elite matchup against the Spurs. Markkanen played 39 minutes in his last game, scoring 30 points and grabbing nine rebounds against the Raptors. He recorded his second-best game of the season with 56.25 DraftKings points while shooting 12-for-21 from the floor. The reigning most-improved player in the league is in a great spot to record his third double-double in his last four games against a very weak Spurs frontcourt.
The Spurs are allowing 46.1 rebounds per game and rank 27th in rebounding percentage this season. This is a great spot for the Jazz big men tonight, especially if Wembanyama doesn’t suit up. The rookie leads the league with three blocks per game. Markkanen is another player priced in mid-range who looks great and could look even better without Wembanyama.
Top Value: Patrick Williams vs. Atlanta Hawks – $5,700 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel
Patrick Williams has scored 13+ points in five consecutive games, which is an increase from his season average. During that time, Williams is averaging 16.8 points per game while shooting an impressive 56.4% from the field and 14-for-21 from behind the arc. Priced at $5,700 on DraftKings and FanDuel, Williams is a cheap way to get exposure to a Bulls offense that is in a great spot against the Hawks’ pitiful defense. He can also score a plethora of fantasy points with his defensive skillset.
The Hawks have allowed a combined 13.3 steals and blocks per game this season, which benefits Williams. There are not many strong values on this slate at a cheaper salary, but Williams certainly fits that mold. His dual eligibility of small forward and power forward makes him easy to fit into lineups. Prioritize Williams on FanDuel, where his defensive stats matter more.
Center
Top Ceiling: Alperen Sengun vs. Indiana Pacers – $8,700 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel
Domantas Sabonis is only on the DraftKings main slate but is impossible to ignore, coming off a triple-double in three of his last four games. However, Alperen Sengun is on both sites and is also a strong pay-up option in his matchup against the Pacers. Sengun scored a season-high 37 points in his last game while adding 11 rebounds and six assists. He posted 64.75 DraftKings points and is still priced under $9,000 on both sites. Sengun will thrive in this fantasy-friendly game environment.
The Pacers play so fast on offense that they give up a ton of points on the other end. They rank second in pace and tied for 29th in defensive rating while allowing 125.8 points per game. The Pacers also rank 26th in rebounding percentage, which will allow plenty of opportunity for Sengun to dominate this matchup. He is too cheap in this matchup, with a 237.5-point total.
Top Value: Nic Claxton at Detroit Pistons – $6,700 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel
Last but certainly not least is Nets center Nic Claxton, who has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight. Claxton has recorded a few massive double-doubles recently and will now get a phenomenal matchup against the Pistons frontcourt, who has allowed 62 points per game in the paint in their last three games. They will likely get Jalen Duren back from injury, but he hasn’t played since December 6th and is only projected to play around 27 minutes.
The Pistons rank 26th in defensive rating and 20th in rebounding percentage, making this a great spot for Claxton. At his cheap salary, Claxton is going to be one of the most popular plays on the slate. The Pistons could set a league record with 27 consecutive losses if they lose tonight. The Nets are 6.5-point road favorites, implied for 119.75 points in a great spot.
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