The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Stephen Curry at Milwaukee Bucks – $10,800 DraftKings, $9,900 FanDuel
After missing one game due to rest, Stephen Curry exploded last game against the Celtics for 32 points, seven assists, and six rebounds while shooting 12 of 21 from the field and 6 of 11 from downtown. He is averaging 30 points per game while shooting over 50% from the field for just the second time in his career. Three of the top five scorers are on this slate, but where Curry separates himself is leading the league with 5.1 3-pointers made per game.
The Warriors are 2-11 on the road playing against the Bucks, who are 12-3 at home, so it shouldn’t be a surprise that the Bucks are favored by four points. Among the stud options on this slate, Curry has the biggest pricing discrepancy between DraftKings and FanDuel, as he is $900 cheaper on FanDuel. This is a difficult matchup against the Bucks, who rank second in Defensive Rating allowing only 107.5 points per game.
Prioritize Curry on FanDuel, but his 3-point upside also makes him a great tournament play on DraftKings.
Top Value: Chris Paul at Houston Rockets – $6,200 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel
The point guard with the highest Plus/Minus on the slate is 37-year-old Chris Paul. He has only played in 13 games this season, and his production has been lacking. Paul is shooting a career-low 37.7% from the field while averaging 9.9 points and 8.9 assists per game. However, he will get the benefit of playing without Devin Booker, who is out due to a hamstring injury. In eight games without Booker last season, Paul saw his usage increase by nearly 2%.
It won’t take much for Paul to pay off this salary in a matchup against the Rockets, who rank 28th in Defensive Rating while allowing 116.2 points per game. This game does have the lowest total on the slate at 224.5 points, but the Suns are still six-point favorites despite playing without Booker and Cameron Johnson. Prioritize Paul on DraftKings, where he is $1,000 cheaper than FanDuel and has a 97% Bargain Rating.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: James Harden vs. Sacramento Kings – $9,700 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel
Since returning from a month of missed games due to injury, James Harden is averaging a double-double with 22.7 points and 11.7 assists while playing 41.3 minutes per game. Over the last two games, Harden has recorded 12 and 16 assists while averaging 17.7 potential assists per game, which ranks second in the league. Harden’s salary has gradually increased, but he has also scored 57 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, so it is deserving.
In his first full season with the 76ers, Harden is averaging a 20-point double-double for the fifth-straight season. Using our On/Off Tool with Tyrese Maxey off the floor, Harden has a team-high +4.2% usage rate and a 47.2% assist rate. The Kings play at the sixth-fastest Pace in the league and are allowing 115 points per game. Harden will have plenty of opportunity to add to his double-double total as he continues to be favorably priced on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Top Value: Jordan Poole at Milwaukee Bucks – $6,400 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel
Similar to Paul, Jordan Poole is a great mid-range salary worth getting exposure to in tournaments. Priced at $6,400 on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Poole has a much better chance of getting into the closing lineup without Andrew Wiggins on the floor. Wiggins is the second leading scorer on the Warriors, so losing him will open things up for Poole, who has a +1.6% usage rate in a team-high 431 minutes without Wiggins on the floor this season.
Poole has a career-high 28.1% usage rate, which ranks second on the team behind Curry. He is averaging 17.8 points and a career-high 4.6 assists per game. While Poole is still shooting below average from the field, he can get scorching hot from the perimeter. Earlier this month, Poole poured in seven 3-pointers against the Bucks, proving his upside. To keep the Warriors competitive tonight, Poole may need another great game shooting the ball.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum at Los Angeles Lakers – $11,000 DraftKings, $10,600 FanDuel
Celtics All-Star Jayson Tatum still has the top ceiling among small forwards despite his poor play recently. Over the last three games, Tatum is averaging under 40 DraftKings points per game while shooting just 36.7% from the field and 28% from behind the arc. The Celtics have lost back-to-back road games against the Warriors and Clippers and will now test their luck against the Lakers, who have won four of their last five home games.
The Lakers rank in the middle of the pack in Defensive Rating but are playing at the fastest Pace in the league (103.1) entering tonight’s games. Playing this fast has led to the Lakers allowing 116.3 points per game, which ranks as the fifth-highest in the league. This game has a slate-high 234.5 total, and for the Celtics to get back on track, Tatum will have to find a way to shoot better from the field. He will get plenty of opportunities to prove that tonight.
Top Value: Mikal Bridges at Houston Rockets – $6,400 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel
Another Suns value player worth getting exposure to with Booker out is small forward Mikal Bridges. He does have shooting guard eligibility on FanDuel, where he should be prioritized — coming in at the same price as he is on DraftKings. In his one game playing without Booker this season, Bridges scored 27 points on 23 field goal attempts in 44 total minutes. He shot 13 3-pointers and had a 23.4% usage rate, finishing with 43.8 DraftKings points.
It is obvious that Bridges is one of the main beneficiaries without Booker on the floor. This is also a fantastic matchup for Bridges on the defensive side of the ball as well. The Rockets rank last in steals allowed and tied for second-to-last in blocks allowed per game. There is massive upside for Bridges in all aspects of this game, playing against the sloppy Rockets team. Bridges has the highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate for FanDuel tonight.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Golden State Warriors – $11,900 DraftKings, $11,600 FanDuel
The salary on Giannis Antetokounmpo is slowly decreasing, which is making him a more intriguing play on every slate. After eight-straight games of scoring 30 or more points, Giannis tied his season-low last game with only 16 points. Giannis hasn’t reached 60 DraftKings in 11 of his last 14 games, which is why his salary is under $12,000 on both sites. Regardless of his recent struggles, we know Giannis has an incredible ceiling in any matchup.
Having Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday back has certainly cut into the upside of Giannis. Even though Middleton left last game due to injury, he is probably to play tonight. However, Holiday is questionable with an illness, so make sure to monitor our news dashboard, as either one of these players out would help Giannis tremendously. The Warriors are allowing 116.1 points per game this season, making this an exploitable matchup for the Greek Freak.
Top Value: Draymond Green at Milwaukee Bucks – $6,000 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
Suns power forward Dario Saric is the best bet for value at the power forward position, but we’re looking for some upside, too, and that is what we get with Draymond Green. He is another player who has the same price on both sites but looks much better on FanDuel, given his ability to rack up defensive stats. Green is behind only Bridges when it comes to the highest projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel, where he has a positive Plus/Minus in five of his last eight games.
Green has the ability to stuff the stat sheet in any matchup and will need to be heavily used in this game, seeing some time guarding Giannis. In his last game, where the Warriors played at the Bucks, Green had nearly a triple-double with 21 points, 10 rebounds, and seven assists. With most of the attention going to Curry and Poole, Green can be effective on offense as well in this spot. Great matchup for Green to once again stuff the stat sheet.
Center
Top Ceiling: Joel Embiid vs. Sacramento Kings – $11,700 DraftKings, $11,800 FanDuel
While Giannis has seen his salary slowly decrease, Joel Embiid‘s salary has done the complete opposite. Even with Harden back in the lineup, Embiid continues to be the best big man in the game. He is averaging a league and career-high 33.4 points per game while shooting 53.5% from the field. Embiid is coming off of another dominating performance last game putting up 53 points and 12 rebounds, making a season-high 20 field goal attempts.
The salary has risen, but Embiid has been taking off and will get another juicy matchup against the Kings, who are allowing 52.6 points per game in the paint this season, which ranks as the sixth-highest in the league. The Kings rank just outside the top 10 in fouls per game, but that will be put to the test as Embiid is averaging a ridiculous 10.1 made free throws per game. Expect another big game from Embiid, and don’t be intimidated by the rising price tag.
Top Value: Deandre Ayton at Houston Rockets – $7,200 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel
One of the best plays on DraftKings tonight is Suns center Deandre Ayton. Priced $1,400 cheaper than FanDuel, Ayton is coming in as the highest-owned center on DraftKings, and rightfully so. The Suns have lost four-straight games, but Ayton has been fantastic recently. In seven of his last 10 games, Ayton has scored 20 or more points while continuing to be a major force on the glass. With no Booker, Ayton’s usage rate, like the other Suns players, will rise.
The Rockets have surprisingly been fantastic rebounding the ball and middle of the pack defending the paint. A fade on FanDuel with Embiid as the obvious pay-up option makes sense, but on DraftKings, Ayton has a 99% Bargain Rating with huge double-double upside. The Suns still have a 115.25 implied team total, and with no Booker, who averages nearly 30 points per game, there will be a lot of scoring opportunities to go around.
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