The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Trae Young vs. Portland Trail Blazers – $9,800 DraftKings
Despite shooting 4-for-16 from the field, Trae Young is coming off his fifth-straight points and assists double-double and accumulated 56.75 DraftKings points last game. Young continues to lead the league with a career-high 11.5 assists per game. Young’s 45 double-doubles are the most by any guard and already the most for him in any season. He has been an incredible dual threat all season for the Hawks.
Young’s consistency is what makes him a great play against the Trail Blazers tonight. However, he also has the highest projected ceiling at the point guard position, with the Hawks having the highest team total on the slate at 122 points. The Hawks rank second in pace and draw a matchup against the Trail Blazers, who have lost four straight games, allowing 122.25 points per game. Young is a strong pay-up option tonight.
Top Value: Ryan Rollins vs. Phoenix Suns – $4,300 DraftKings
With Damian Lillard sidelined indefinitely, Bucks’ point guard Ryan Rollins will draw another start. He is projected for the third-highest Plus/Minus on the slate after recording three consecutive games with a positive Plus/Minus. During that three-game stretch, Rollins is averaging 15.7 points, 4.0 assists, 3.3 rebounds, and 27.5 DraftKings points per game, while shooting 66.7% from the field and 70% from deep.
The Suns have been a favorable team to target, ranking 26th in defensive rating this season and still on the outside looking into the play-in tournament. They are also tied for the sixth-highest opponents 3-point percentage at 36.6% this season, which bodes well for the sharpshooting Rollins. Priced at $4,300, Rollins is a cheap way to get exposure to the Bucks offense that should flourish in this matchup tonight.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Devin Booker at Milwaukee Bucks – $9,700 DraftKings
Devin Booker has been a boom-or-bust fantasy producer recently but will have a fantastic opportunity for a ceiling performance tonight with Kevin Durant out and Bradley Beal questionable to play. If Beal is also out, Booker has a +3.75% usage rate increase with both players off the floor this year (per our Trends tool). Booker has the fourth-highest projected ceiling on the slate and the highest at this position tonight.
The Bucks have been one of the better defensive units this season, but Booker had no trouble in their last meeting a week ago. He recorded a 19-point, 12-assist double-double with seven rebounds and 44.75 DraftKings points, which was the most he has had in the last two weeks. Booker’s salary is high for his recent output, but playing without Durant and potentially Beal is intriguing in this spot against the Bucks.
Top Value: Dalen Terry vs. Toronto Raptors – $3,600 DraftKings
After another game that resulted in a positive Plus/Minus, we are going right back to the well with Bulls’ guard Dalen Terry. He started against the Thunder last night and had four points, three rebounds, three steals, and two assists in 23 minutes. That was enough to pay off his cheap salary, which is yet again below $4,000 tonight. This matchup against the Raptors is also better than last night’s Thunder matchup.
The Bulls lost by 28 points last night but are 5.5-point home favorites tonight with a 120.25 implied team total. Tre Jones remains out, while Kevin Huerter and Lonzo Ball are doubtful to play. Terry is projected for 28 minutes and another start, making him the best value play on the slate with the highest projected Plus/Minus. Expect a bounce-back game for the Bulls, and Terry is still simply too cheap for this matchup.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: OG Anunoby vs. Philadelphia 76ers – $7,300 DraftKings
The top of the small forward pricing tier is rather weak, which is why it is best to save a little bit of money paying down for OG Anunoby. His projected ceiling is not many points below Franz Wagner and Jimmy Butler, and Anunoby is at least $1,300 cheaper than those two overpriced small forwards. Anunoby has also been a ceiling performer recently with six straight games recorded with a positive Plus/Minus. In that stretch, he is averaging 28.3 points and 44.3 DraftKings points per game, shooting 56% from the field.
The Knicks are still without Jalen Brunson, Miles McBride, and Cameron Payne due to injuries. With those three off the court this season, Anunoby has an impressive +9.31% usage rate and a +10.4 DraftKings Plus/Minus. The Knicks are also a slate-high 15-point favorite against a depleted 76ers roster tonight.
Top Value: Royce O’Neale at Milwaukee Bucks – $4,000 DraftKings
Similar to Booker, Royce O’Neale will also benefit with Durant and potentially Beal being out for the Suns. O’Neale has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in back-to-back games and has the fourth-highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate. Priced at $4,000 with dual forward eligibility, O’Neale is easy to fit into all formats.
In his first full year with the Suns, O’Neale is averaging a career-high 9.3 points per game while shooting a career-best 42.1% from behind the arc. Over 75% of his field goal attempts have come from long distance, which sets him up for success in this matchup. The Bucks are allowing opponents to shoot 39 3-pointers per game, which is the eighth-highest in the league. O’Neale has only started in 19 of his 69 games played this season but will draw the start due to injuries and is projected to play around 28 minutes.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Phoenix Suns – $12,100 DraftKings
Leading the slate in projected ceiling by a wide margin is Bucks’ superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo. This six-game slate comes down to whether or not to play Giannis. There is plenty of value to fit in Giannis, which is why he is drawing over 20% projected ownership. Giannis has four straight games with 30+ points and is second in the league in scoring with 30.2 points per game. He is averaging 11.9 rebounds per game but has failed to record a double-double in back-to-back games, which is uncharacteristic.
The Suns defense has been below average in both rebounding and interior defense. In his last game against the Suns a week ago, Giannis recorded 31 points, 10 rebounds, and five assists while shooting 12-for-19 from the field. Without Lillard and Bobby Portis, Giannis is the premier pay-up option in all formats.
Top Value: Sandro Mamukelashvili vs. Orlando Magic – $3,400 DraftKings
Spurs’ big man Sandro Mamukelashvili is coming off one of his best games of the season recording a 14-point, 11-rebound double-double. He finished with 36.75 DraftKings points and has since dropped $200. With Victor Wembanyama and Charles Bassey both out for the Spurs, Mamukelashvili is projected to play 18 minutes. Even in that limited playing time, he has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus at the power forward position. Mamukelashvili has displayed a ceiling that is worth getting exposure to tonight.
The Magic are an average rebounding team but have been one of the best defenses in the league. This is not an ideal matchup for opposing big men, but it will not take much for Mamukelashvili to return value at his cheap $3,400 price tag. His power forward and center eligibility also makes him easy to target.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Karl-Anthony Towns vs. Philadelphia 76ers – $10,400 DraftKings
After two games recording 63+ DraftKings points, Karl-Anthony Towns followed that up with back-to-back floor performances. However, a matchup against a depleted 76ers frontcourt with no Joel Embiid or Andre Drummond is appealing for Towns’ outlook tonight. The 76ers rank dead last in rebounding rate at 46.9%, which will benefit Towns, who is averaging a career-high 12.8 rebounds per game this season. Also, in his only game against the 76ers this season, Towns recorded a 21-point, 13-rebound double-double.
Projected for less than 5% ownership, Towns is an easy way to differentiate lineups tonight. He is a great pivot from Giannis and a less popular way to get exposure to the Knicks than Anunoby. This is one of my favorite spots to get different on this six-game slate. I love this matchup for a Towns ceiling performance.
Top Value: Jakob Poeltl at Chicago Bulls – $6,600 DraftKings
The Raptors are another team dealing with a plethora of injuries and are resting their starters seemingly any chance they can get. After resting last game, Jakob Poeltl should be good to go tonight. Keep an eye on his status to make sure, but Poeltl is one of the best mid-range value plays on the slate. He has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his last eight games and has back-to-back ceiling games, averaging 22.5 points, 11.5 rebounds, and 46.6 DraftKings points per game, shooting 81.5% from the field.
The Bulls have been playing much better recently, but they still are a team to attack with opposing centers. They are allowing a league-high 54.3 points per game in the paint this season and rank 21st in rebounding percentage. Poeltl looks like a strong value in all lineup builds at his reasonable $6,600 salary.
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