The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Happy New Year! Today’s main slate differs by site. DraftKings features a four-game slate starting at 6 p.m. ET while FanDuel features a three-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
The PG position is a bit thin at the top today. Only Damian Lillard owns a price tag above $7,300 on FanDuel, but he’s definitely in play vs. the Knicks. They’ve struggled this season, ranking just 27th in defensive efficiency, and the Blazers’ implied team total of 114.75 ranks third on the slate.
Lillard has been an excellent option in general recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus in six of his past seven games on FanDuel. He also leads the position with 12 Pro Trends.
Value
The Timberwolves may be very shorthanded on today’s slate. Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins have already been ruled out, while Jeff Teague is listed as doubtful. That means the team will likely be without three of their highest-usage players for today’s matchup vs. the Bucks.
Shabazz Napier is a candidate to move into the starting lineup, and he should see an increased workload even if he comes off the bench. He’s currently projected for 26.1 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged 0.96 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. Napier has also seen a usage bump of +7.5% with Towns, Wiggins, and Teague all off the court this season. He’s way underpriced at $4,800 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Fast Break
The Orlando Magic are in one of the best spots of the day vs. the Washington Wizards. They’ve played at the third-fastest pace this season and rank dead last in defensive efficiency. Michael Carter-Williams has also already been ruled out, while Aaron Gordon is questionable.
Markelle Fultz played over 30 minutes in Orlando’s last game, and he managed to post a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel despite shooting just 1-7 from the field. He shot just 1-10 in his previous contest, so he’s definitely a candidate for some positive regression moving forward.
The Knicks are another team with a host of questionable players for today’s contest, which could work in Elfrid Payton’s favor. He’s averaged 1.08 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s played at least 30.2 minutes in each of his past three contests. He has big upside vs. the Blazers if he sees a comparable workload.
Shooting Guard
Stud
C.J. McCollum is simply underpriced across the industry at the moment. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.15 over his past 10 games on DraftKings and +3.10 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. Despite that production, his price tag has actually decreased on both sites over that time frame.
He stands out in particular at $6,800 on DraftKings, where it’s harder to find strong values today. Historically, McCollum has averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.54 with a comparable price tag, including an average Plus/Minus of +5.28 this season (per the Trends tool). He benefits from the same strong matchup as Lillard, and his 12 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position.
Value
Terrence Ross was another member of the Magic who struggled in their his game, scoring just 13.5 DraftKings points on 2-11 shooting. That said, he did play 28.3 minutes, and he remains affordable at just $4,200 on DraftKings. Ross has historically been a nice investment with a comparable salary and minute projection, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.21 as a member of the Magic.
Fast Break
Devin Booker possesses arguably the highest ceiling at the SG position, particularly if Bradley Beal is ruled out for the Wizards. He’s increased his fantasy production to 1.11 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s scored at least 41.6 FanDuel points in each of his past three games. He’s underpriced at $7,200 on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 77%.
Jarrett Culver was asked to carry a massive workload for the shorthanded T’Wolves in their last contest. He logged 38.3 minutes and attempted a season-high 21 shots from the field. That was only his second game of the season with more than 14 shot attempts, so that represented a massive boost in scoring upside. He could be asked to shoulder a similar load today, which makes him a very appealing option at his current price tag across the industry.
Small Forward
Stud
The SF position headlines today’s slate, lead by Giannis Antetokounmpo and LeBron James. They own the two highest price tags and the two highest ceiling projections in our NBA Models. There is plenty of value available, so most people will likely roster at least one of these guys in their lineups.
Let’s start with Giannis. He returned to the lineup in the Bucks’ last game but was ultimately limited to just 27.4 minutes. He was still dominant when on the court – he averaged 1.66 DraftKings points per minute – but his lack of playing time resulted in a Plus/Minus of -10.72 on DraftKings.
Unfortunately, this seems like another spot where playing time could be an issue. The Bucks are currently favored by 18 points, which makes them the largest favorites of the entire season. Giannis has averaged a Plus/Minus of -2.61 when favored by at least 13 points this season, so he carries more risk than usual on today’s slate.
Still, that could work in his favor for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). He’s projected for lower ownership than usual for a four-game slate, and his price tag has decreased across the industry over the past month. No one can match his upside if he sees more minutes than expected.
With that in mind, LeBron is definitely an appealing pivot. He leads the position with 13 Pro Trends on DraftKings, where his $10,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 75%. The Lakers’ implied team total of 118.75 is only slightly lower than the Bucks’, and LeBron is projected for approximately eight more minutes than Giannis.
Value
Kelan Martin is another member of the Timberwolves who should see a few additional minutes today. He played 34.8 minutes in their last game, and he’s posted a Plus/Minus of at least +9.39 in each of his past two games. He’s still cheap across the industry, particularly on FanDuel at just $3,600.
Fast Break
Carmelo Anthony is one of the stronger values at the position on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 94%. He’s playing a bunch of minutes for the Blazers, logging at least 36.5 minutes in three of his past four games, and he’s averaged 0.91 FanDuel points per minute. This is also a bit of a #RevengeGame vs. the Knicks, so he could be slightly more motivated than usual.
Kyle Kuzma has increased his fantasy production to 0.86 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he remains affordable at just $4,600 on DraftKings. He’s played at least 26.4 minutes in each of his past three games, and he’s at least 32.0 DraftKings points in two of them.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis is the clear class of the PF position on today’s slate. He’s priced at $10,800 on FanDuel, and no one else is priced above $7,500. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in each of his past three games, and he’s in an interesting spot today vs. the Suns. The Suns appear to be a good matchup – they’re above average in pace and below average in defensive efficiency and rebound rate – but Davis still owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +0.22 on FanDuel.
Value
Robert Covington is an elite option at just $5,100 on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 94%. He’s played at least 35.1 minutes in each of his past three games, and he’s averaged 0.91 FanDuel points per minute this season. He always has massive upside on FanDuel given his ability to rack up blocks and steals, which are worth three fantasy points apiece.
Fast Break
Julius Randle got off to a slow start with the Knicks, but he’s started to turn things around. He’s increased his fantasy production to 1.16 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s scored at least 43.6 FanDuel points in each of his past three games. He leads the position with a whopping 15 Pro Trends on FanDuel, and his $7,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 91%.
Kelly Oubre has PF eligibility on DraftKings, and he’s been awesome recently. He’s carrying a huge workload – he’s played at least 37.8 minutes in four of his past five games – and he’s averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He has a tough matchup vs. the Lakers, but he’s still underpriced across the industry.
Center
Stud
Nikola Vucevic has a dream matchup today vs. the Wizards. They’ve been crushed on the boards in addition to the defensive end this season, giving Vucevic an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.24 on DraftKings.
He also has the potential to benefit from their current injury situation. He’s averaged 1.37 DraftKings points per minute with Gordon and MCW off the court this season, which represents a solid increase compared to his average of 1.30 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
Value
Gorgui Dieng should draw another start with Towns out of the lineup, and he’s thrived in that situation this season. He’s averaged 28 minutes per game in nine contests with Towns out of the lineup, and he’s averaged 32.39 FanDuel points in those contests. He’s been priced up to $6,200 on FanDuel, but he still offers some value at that price tag. His matchup vs. the Bucks could also be a positive given that they’ve played at the fastest pace in the league.
Fast Break
Ian Mahinmi is coming off quite possibly the best game of his career, scoring 44.5 FanDuel points in 28.3 minutes. He shot 10-11 from the field in that contest – which is obviously unsustainable – but he should still see a boost in value given the Wizards’ current injury situation.
Hassan Whiteside has been one of the best values on DraftKings recently. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.44 over his past 10 games, and he’s increased his production to 1.45 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s underpriced at $8,300, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 78%.
Photo Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports.
Pictured: (left to right) Timberwolves C Gorgui Dieng (5), PG Shabazz Napier (13), & F Robert Covington (33)
