The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a nine-game slate starting at 7:00 p.m. ET.
You’re going to find a lot of value in the Warriors and Timberwolves game tonight. The Warriors are missing D’Angelo Russell as well as centers Willie Cauley-Stein and Kevon Looney. The T-Wolves have a heap of question marks but are expected to be without Karl-Anthony Towns, Jeff Teague, and probably Andrew Wiggins.
This game opened at 221.5 points, third highest on the slate. That’s a whole lot of points, minutes, and usage to be soaked up by bargain players, and you’ve got a bunch of good options to fill out your lineup with.
Point Guard
Studs
Luka Doncic has gone ice cold compared to how he started the season. He’s fallen short of expectations in six of the last 10 games he’s played by an average of -6.75 fantasy points per game, playing through a couple injuries. The rest of Dallas is banged up too. Tim Hardaway Jr. is out, and Kristaps Porzingis is out.
But Doncic has a beautiful matchup Thursday, with Brooklyn offering a +3.46 Opponent Plus/Minus along with a +3.4 pace differential. It’s hard to get a much better matchup uptick than that, so this is a golden opportunity for Doncic to bounce back with a huge line, especially in a spot with likely increased usage with one or two big scorers sidelined.
Zach Beeker/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Luka Doncic (77) of the Dallas Mavericks.
Doncic is a genuine bargain at FanDuel at just $10,800, giving him a +8.7 Projected Plus/Minus. He only has to score 50 fantasy points to meet expectations there and anything additional is gravy. He’s a more moderate option at +2.0 on DraftKings, thanks to his $12,000 salary.
Value
It’s time for our first recommended play from that Warriors-Wolves game. Shabazz Napier may not be the player LeBron James thought he would be, but he’s been a huge fantasy bargain lately. Napier’s exceeded expectations in six of seven games with over 34 fantasy points three times, and he’s averaged 23 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 5.5 assists in 32.5 minutes a game his last two times out.
Add in a plus matchup and you get a gigantic bargain, with Napier offering a +13.71 Projected Plus/Minus at FanDuel in particular. He might be the biggest Minnesota benefactor of all the injury absences.
Fast Break
De’Aaron Fox is a forgotten man so far this season, but he’s in a great spot against the Grizzlies with a +2.69 Opponent Plus/Minus and a +6.2 pace differential that should encourage Fox to get out and run, playing to his strengths. Fox has a +6 Projected Plus/Minus at FanDuel and is over +3.7 at both sites, and he should get the best of Ja Morant in this one.
If you like the Dallas matchup but don’t have big bucks available, Jalen Brunson is another good option. Brunson has gone ice cold over the last four games but could see an uptick in playing time with Hardaway out, and he’s second best among point guard options at DraftKings with a +7.4 Projected Plus/Minus.
Shooting Guard
Studs
Jimmy Butler is the big name at shooting guard today, and our models aren’t loving him. Butler has typically posted better numbers this season with Justise Winslow sidelined as he is today, giving Butler more time on the ball, but Butler just hasn’t been as reliable in fantasy this season.
Stephen Gosling/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Jimmy Butler (22) of the Miami Heat.
He’s fallen short of expectations in six of his last nine and has a tough matchup against Toronto. Butler is an okay play at FanDuel with 13 Pro Trends but actually has a negative Projected Plus/Minus at DraftKings. There are better players to build around tonight.
Value
Our models really like Kings guards tonight, including Fox, Bogdan Bogdanovic, and Buddy Hield. Hield is the top recommended play of the three. Like Fox, he benefits from a great matchup and huge pace boost. Buddy has at least 20 points and five rebounds in three straight games and has a +5.01 Projected Plus/Minus at FanDuel. Bogdanovic is a good option too, though our models recommend finding the extra $1,000 or so for Hield.
Fast Break
Damion Lee continues to be a fantasy monster. He’s now exceeded expectations in nine straight games with an average +11.99 during that time at FanDuel, and though his salary is starting to tick up, he’s still a +7.5 Projected Plus/Minus tonight. Lee is starting on the wing and averaging 16.4 points and 7.8 boards over those nine games.
Delon Wright looks like a strong bargain play. Wright is a strong play for similar reasons to Brunson and Doncic. He should get more playing time and shots with Hardaway out, and he has a great matchup against Brooklyn. Wright is not much of a scorer so he has a more limited ceiling, but he’s a great play in cash games with a Projected Plus/Minus over +4.7 on both sites.
Small Forward
Studs
Our models typically don’t love Paul George, and he’s only met expectations in 50% of his games this season, but they like him tonight. The Pistons are a -3.7 pace differential, but they won’t offer much resistance on the wing, so either PG or Kawhi Leonard could have a big game.
George is over +3.4 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites, but he has a 97% Bargain Rating at FanDuel at just $8,000. He’s gone over 54 fantasy points in five of his last 12 outings, and with an implied score around 36, that’s tournament winning upside if he hits his ceiling. At +8.77 Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel, PG looks like a good semi gamble tonight.
Value
If you need to skimp at small forward, there are a number of good options in the Warriors-Wolves game. Rookie Jarrett Culver looks like the best of the bunch. Culver has played 71 minutes over the last two games, piling up 31 points, 13 rebounds, 8 assists, 4 steals, and 2 blocks.
Abbie Parr/Getty Images. Pictured: Jarrett Culver (23) of the Minnesota Timberwolves.
The Warriors are, politely, closer to the sort of competition he dominated physically in college last year, so Culver could have a big night. He has a gigantic +11.65 Projected Plus/Minus at FanDuel, but you should downgrade him significantly if Wiggins ends up playing.
Fast Break
Alec Burks is another good option from that game. Burks is the de facto starting point guard with Russell out, so that’s giving him some assist opportunity along with his usual scoring upside. Burks has a 97% Bargain Rating at FanDuel, so he gets a +9.97 Projected Plus/Minus there. He’s still a positive play at DraftKings at +3.68 but only eligible at one of the guard positions. Glenn Robinson Jr. is another good Warriors bargain, if you’re at FanDuel. He also has a 97% Bargain Rating along with a +7.29 Projected Plus/Minus.
Joe Ingles has been a huge fantasy producer with Mike Conley out. He’s gone over expectations in nine of his last 11, averaging a +9.02 over that stretch. He’s running the offense a lot more without Conley, averaging 5.8 assists in those 11 games, and he has a plus matchup in Chicago. Ingles is over +4.9 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites and is an outstanding mid-level option, especially in cash games.
Power Forward
Studs
Like Paul George, our models typically don’t love Kawhi Leonard either, but think he’s a good option tonight. Leonard has fallen short of expectations in 62% of his games over the past month and 54% on the season, and his numbers and playing time have been much more sporadic with Paul George available. The Clippers are clearly keeping an eye on Leonard’s workload with May and June in mind, and that hurts his fantasy reliability.
Chris Elise/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: A close up shot of Kawhi Leonard (2) of the Los Angeles Clippers.
Of course, that’s already dropped his salary some, and Kawhi is over +3.7 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites with a +6.69 at FanDuel. That would typically make him a pretty strong stud option, but I’m skeptical that the Clips will need a big Kawhi night at home against a Pistons team likely missing Blake Griffin. That said, Leonard could spend more time on the ball with Patrick Beverley out, so perhaps he’ll have more assists as he did early in the season.
Value
Robert Covington is another outstanding play from that Golden State and Minnesota game. RoCo is known mostly for his defense, but he’s been forced into a bigger role with all the Wolves injuries, averaging 13.5 points and 8.3 rebounds in almost 36 minutes a game his last four times out. Covington has averaged a +13.5 over the past four games and is over +6.5 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites tonight with a +10.53 at FanDuel.
Fast Break
Marquese Chriss is another option in that game as the Warriors de facto center with Cauley-Stein and Looney out. He’s scored over 30 fantasy points in two straight. Chriss has a 98% Bargain Rating at FanDuel along with a +10.95 Projected Plus/Minus.
If you need a high upside bargain from another game, Christian Wood might be your guy. Wood produces 1.16 fantasy points per minute and should see increased playing time with Blake Griffin out, and the Clippers are a very plus matchup against opposing big men. Wood is over +5.2 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites, but he has a 99% Bargain Rating at FanDuel with a +11.84. Power forward is a great spot to cheap out on tonight.
Center
Studs
Weren’t we just talking about the Clippers being a great matchup for opposing big men? If Wood is a good play, Andre Drummond looks like a slam dunk. Los Angeles just doesn’t have any matchup for Drummond, so he could have a monster game on the glass, along with a +2.47 Opponent Plus/Minus and a +3.7 pace differential.
Drummond is a walking double-double with 20-rebound upside, and he also piles up those oft-overlooked blocks and steals for big points. At +10.22 Projected Plus/Minus with 13 Pro Trends on FanDuel, he might be the night’s top stud play.
The other stud option, Nikola Jokic? Not so much. Jokic will have his hands full with Myles Turner guarding him, and he just hasn’t lived up to his price tag this season. He’s fallen short of expectations in 57% of his games this season and has a negative Projected Plus/Minus at both sites.
Value
Rudy Gobert has a very favorable matchup against the Bulls, with a delectable +4.16 Opponent Plus/Minus and a positive pace differential. Gobert has seen a big boost in his numbers with Conley out, exceeding expectations in 73% of his games over the last month and 10 of his last 11. He’s a really intriguing pivot with Drummond expected in a lot of lineups and has almost as much upside for about $1,000 less. He has a +6.33 Projected Plus/Minus at FanDuel.
Todd Kirkland/Getty Images. Pictured: Rudy Gobert (27) of the Utah Jazz.
Fast Break
Our models have been liking Bismack Biyombo lately, and Biyombo is in a good spot against the Cavs. He’s gone over expectations in six of nine games with six double-digit scoring games over that span. Biyombo is projected to play 25.6 minutes tonight, and that gives him a Projected Plus/Minus over +5.5 at both sites.
Ivica Zubac will need to play a steady minute load tonight against Andre Drummond. He averages 1.19 fantasy points per minute, so he should produce if he can stay out of foul trouble. He’s over +3.6 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites and looks like a strong bargain option if you’re skimping at the position.
Pictured above: Alec Burks (8), and Draymond Green (23) of the Golden State Warriors
Photo Credit: Noah Graham/NBAE via Getty Images
