The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features a 13-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Today’s slate is absolutely loaded, and it starts with the PG position. Luka Doncic is the most expensive option, and he showed no signs of rust in his first game back from injury. He scored 51.0 DraftKings points over 32.6 minutes vs. the Spurs, and he has another friendly matchup today vs. the Warriors. He should see more minutes in this contest, and only Giannis Antetokounmpo has averaged more fantasy points per minute this season.
He’s an elite option on FanDuel, where his $10,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Russell Westbrook stands out as the preferred stud target on DraftKings. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.55 over his past 10 games, yet his salary has actually decreased over that time frame. He’s in one of the best spots of the day vs. the Brooklyn Nets, who have been crushed by opposing PGs this season. Westbrook owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.26, and his 13 Pro Trends rank second at the position. The Rockets’ implied team total of 121.25 also ranks first on the slate.
Value
De’Aaron Fox was forced to leave the Kings’ last contest due to back spasms, and he’s already been ruled out for today’s matchup vs. the Suns. Marvin Bagley III has also been ruled out, which opens up plenty of opportunities for the rest of the roster.
Corey Joseph carried a massive workload after Fox left their last game, logging nearly 40 minutes, and he responded with 32.7 FanDuel points. He’s priced near the minimum at $3,600 on FanDuel and $3,900 on DraftKings, and he should draw the start at PG today. He’s currently projected for 33.2 minutes, and point guards with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.18 on FanDuel (per the Trends tool).
Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Brooklyn Nets guard Spencer Dinwiddie (8).
Fast Break
Spencer Dinwiddie continues to shoulder the offense burden for the Nets with Kyrie Irving out of the lineup. He’s coming off a subpar performance in his last game, scoring just 38.5 DraftKings points, but he had scored at least 45.5 in each of his three prior games. He’s a nice bounce-back candidate vs. the Rockets, who have played at the second-fastest pace this season.
Malcolm Brogdon sat out yesterday on the first leg of a back-to-back, and his status for tonight’s contest is currently unknown. If he suits up, he’s almost undoubtedly underpriced on FanDuel at $6,200. His salary has decreased by $2,600 over the past month, and his current price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%.
If he’s unable to go, Aaron Holiday would become an appealing value play. He’s scored at least 34.1 FanDuel points in relief of Brodgon over his past two games, and he remains affordable at $4,700.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden is almost always in play for DFS, and he’s a particularly strong option tonight. In addition to the matchup, the Rockets will also be playing without Clint Capela. Harden has increased his usage rate by +6.7% with Capela off the court this season, resulting in a ridiculous 45.3% usage rate. He’s averaged 1.81 DraftKings points per minute in that situation, which represents a significant increase from his season average of 1.67.
Harden has also seen a price decrease of $800 over the past month on DraftKings, and his $11,200 salary is very reasonable for him. Harden has owned a comparable price tag in 10 previous contests this season, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +7.15.
Value
Sticking with the Rockets, Ben McLemore figures to see a few additional minutes in this contest, and he’s averaged 0.81 DraftKings points per minute with Capela off the court this season. He’s priced near the minimum across the industry, and he benefits from the same elite matchup as Westbrook and Harden: He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.50 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
D’Angelo Russell stands out as a strong value on DraftKings at just $7,400. He’s displayed a nice ceiling recently, scoring at least 42.0 DraftKings points in four of his past five games, and the Warriors have quietly started to turn things around. They’ve won four straight games, and Russell’s fantasy stock will almost certainly increase if they can start keeping games more competitive.
Buddy Hield has been priced down to just $5,700 on FanDuel, which is simply too cheap considering their current injury situation. He’s averaged 34.8 FanDuel points in 14 games without Fox and Bagley this season. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +1.8 in those contests despite an average salary of nearly $7,400.
Donovan Mitchell leads the position with 16 Pro Trends on FanDuel, which is not a number that you see everyday. Historically, players with a comparable number of Pro Trends have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.49, and Mitchell should also see a boost in value with Mike Conley out of the lineup.
Small Forward
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo will miss his second consecutive game, which leaves LeBron James as the highest-priced SF. He leads the position with 14 Pro Trends on DraftKings, and he has a much friendlier matchup vs. the Portland Trail Blazers. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.48. LeBron has scored at least 56.5 DraftKings points in five of his past six games, so his $10,000 salary is very reasonable.
With Giannis out of the lineup, we can also go back to Khris Middleton today vs. the Magic. He was dominant yesterday, posting a usage rate of 36.4% and averaging 1.72 DraftKings points per minute, but he was ultimately limited to just 25.3 minutes in a blowout win.
He’s been priced up aggressively on DraftKings for today’s contest, but he still offers value. He’s seen a usage bump of +10.9% with Giannis and Eric Bledsoe off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.54 DraftKings points per minute. If today’s contest vs. the Magic stays competitive – the Bucks are favored by eight points even without Giannis – he should be able to improve upon 43.5 DraftKings points from yesterday.
Pictured: Milwaukee Bucks forward Khris Middleton (22), Photo Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports
Value
The Hawks are going to be without Trae Young for today’s matchup vs. the Bulls, which opens up a tremendous amount of shots for the rest of the team. Young has posted an average usage rate of 34.5%, which is the fourth-highest mark in the league.
Cam Reddish figures to be one of the biggest beneficiaries. He’s increased his usage rate by +4.1% with Young off the court this season, resulting in an average of 0.80 DraftKings points per minute. He’s currently projected for 32.8 minutes in our NBA Models, which makes him an elite value across the industry.
Fast Break
Taurean Prince stands out as one of the best pure values at the position on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 97%. He’s increased his fantasy production to 0.85 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and his matchup vs. the Rockets results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.14. That’s the top mark at the position.
Kelly Oubre was limited to just 15.75 DraftKings points yesterday vs. the Warriors, but there’s no reason to expect a repeat performance today. Oubre has averaged a stout 0.95 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s currently projected for 36.1 minutes in our NBA Models. He’s simply underpriced across the industry.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis feels like he could be a bit overlooked today. He’s currently projected for just 5-8% ownership on DraftKings, which would make him an elite option for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). He has a fantastic matchup vs. the Blazers, who have struggled against opposing big men this season. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.70, and Davis dropped 62.75 on the Blazers in their last matchup.
Value
Ersan Ilyasova figures to become the chalk at PF today given the absence of Giannis. He replaced Giannis in the starting lineup yesterday and could not have delivered a better performance. He scored 42.75 DraftKings points in just 24.4 minutes, thanks to 17 rebounds and 18 points on 7-8 shooting. You obviously shouldn’t expect a repeat performance today – particularly in a tough matchup vs. the Magic – but he’s definitely underpriced.
Fast Break
P.J. Tucker is another solid value option at the position, albeit one with much less upside. He figures to see all the minutes he can handle with Capela out of the lineup, and the Nets represent a wonderful matchup for opposing big men.
Richaun Holmes could be looking at a monster workload today for the Kings. He played just under 45 minutes in his last game, and he produced 56.0 DraftKings points. Holmes is an awesome fantasy producer when he’s on the court – he’s averaged 1.09 DraftKings points per minute over the past month – so he’s capable of taking advantage of a few additional minutes.
Center
Stud
Rudy Gobert has quietly been one of the best values in fantasy recently. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.83 over his past 10 games on DraftKings, and he’s increased his production to 1.26 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
He takes the court today in an excellent spot vs. the Clippers. They’re a solid defensive team – they rank eighth in defensive efficiency – but the Clippers are much weaker on the interior than on the perimeter. Gobert owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.42 on DraftKings, and his 12 Pro Trends are tied for the second-most at the position.
Value
Virtually everyone is going to be in play for the shorthanded Bucks today, but Brook Lopez stands out as one of their stronger options. He’s seen a usage bump of +8.6% with Bledsoe and Giannis off the court this season, and his usage rate of 25.5% in that situation trails only Middleton’s. The result is an average of 1.17 FanDuel points per minute, and he’s currently projected for 29.1 minutes in our NBA Models.
He’s a steal at $4,900 on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 98%.
Credit: Russ Isabella-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Rudy Gobert
Fast Break
Bam Adebayo has a tough matchup vs. Joel Embiid and the 76ers, but he’s simply underpriced at $8,100 on DraftKings. It results in a Bargain Rating of 88%, and he leads all centers with 13 Pro Trends.
If you are going to stack the Bucks today – which is definitely a viable strategy – it makes sense to run it back with someone from the Magic. You’re likely going to need a full game from the Bucks’ players in order for them to reach full value, and that’s only going to happen if someone on the Magic also delivers.
Nikola Vucevic seems like the most logical choice. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past four games on FanDuel, and he also owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.12. He should have a significant edge vs. Lopez, who struggles to defend on the perimeter.
Photo Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
Pictured: Rockets G James Harden (13)
