The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features a seven-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook has been an awesome fantasy asset recently. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.01 over his past 10 games on DraftKings and he’s posted a Consistency Rating of 91% over the past month. He’s carrying one of the largest workloads in basketball at the moment, and no one on today’s slate is projected for more minutes in our NBA Models.
With that in mind, he’s very reasonably priced at just $9,200 on FanDuel. He leads the position with 13 Pro Trends, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.63 with a comparable price tag this season (per the Trends tool).
His matchup vs. the Suns isn’t ideal, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of -2.1, but the Rockets’ implied team total of 121.25 still ranks first on the slate.
Value
Karl-Anthony Towns has missed the past two games for the Minnesota Timberwolves, and his status for today’s contest is currently unknown. That will be important to monitor prior to lineup lock, so make sure to take advantage of Justin Phan’s new NBA Insiders tool. As soon as anything changes, you’ll be able to adapt in real time.
Jeff Teague would be tough to avoid at $5,400 on FanDuel if Towns is ultimately unable to suit up. He hasn’t exactly crushed in the past two games without Towns, but he has increased his usage rate by +2.5% with Towns off the court this season.
He’s also in an excellent spot today vs. the Portland Trail Blazers. They’ve struggled defensively against PGs this season, giving Teague an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.38, and they’ll be playing on the second leg of a back-to-back.
Fast Break
Dejounte Murray has been super effective when on the court this season, averaging a 1.20 FanDuel points per minute. The only thing that has kept him from being a better fantasy asset is a lack of playing time, but that appears to be changing. He’s logged at least 27 minutes in four of his past five games, and he’s unsurprisingly scored at least 31.9 FanDuel points in each of those contest. His current salary does not reflect his new role across the industry.
Damian Lillard is another viable option if you’re looking to pay up at the position. He’s scored at least 51.75 DraftKings points in each of his past two games, and he has an excellent matchup vs. the Timberwolves. They rank merely 23rd in terms of defensive efficiency, and they’ve also played at the seventh-fastest pace.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Westbrook’s fantasy resurgence recently has unsurprisingly led to a downtick for James Harden. There are only so many opportunities to go around in a given game, and both players need the ball in their hands to accumulate fantasy points. They have a correlation of -0.23, so it’s tough for both players to succeed in the same contest.
Westbrook is expected to garner higher ownership today, which could make it a nice time to pivot to Harden. His price has come down across the industry, and his current $11,100 price tag on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 91%. Harden has crushed with a comparable price tag this season, averaging a Plus/Minus of +4.97.
Value
Pat Connaughton is priced at just $3,100 on DraftKings and $3,500 on FanDuel, which makes him an interesting option today vs. the Knicks. The Bucks are currently dealing with a couple of injuries in their backcourt — Eric Bledsoe has been ruled out and Wesley Matthews is doubtful — so he’s in line for a few additional minutes.
The Knicks are also the perfect opponent for Connaughton. They’re awful defensively, ranking just 27th in defensive efficiency, and the Bucks are listed as 12.5-point favorites. If the Bucks can build a solid lead in this contest, it wouldn’t be surprising to see limited workloads for guys like Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton. That could result in an even larger workload than expected for Connaughton, who has averaged 0.84 DraftKings points per minute this season.
Fast Break
The 76ers are taking on the Washington Wizards, who have been one of the best matchups in fantasy this season. They rank second in pace and dead last in defensive efficiency, which is a juicy combination. The 76ers are implied for 120.5 points in this matchup, which represents an increase of nearly 12 points when compared to their season average (108.8). That obviously makes them a strong team to target.
Josh Richardson stands out on FanDuel, where his $5,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. He’s played more minutes over his past two games, and he’s currently projected for 32.8 in our NBA Models. He’s averaged 0.90 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, so that should be more than enough to pay off his current price tag.
On the other side of that matchup, Bradley Beal is worth some consideration on DraftKings. His $8,600 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 75%, and he’s scored at least 56.5 DraftKings points in three of his past four games. He leads the position with 13 Pro Trends, and he posted a positive Plus/Minus in his first game vs. the 76ers this season.
Small Forward
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo is officially listed as probable for today’s game vs. the Knicks, and he should absolutely smash them when he’s on the court. He has somehow gotten better over the past month, averaging a ridiculous 1.99 DraftKings points per minute. If he was playing more minutes, he would be on pace to absolutely shatter the fantasy record books.
The problem is, he’s not playing more minutes. There have been plenty of games where he doesn’t even see 25 recently, and this game vs. the Knicks sets up like one of those contests. Giannis played just 22 minutes in his first meeting vs. the Knicks this season, so he’s very tough to trust on today’s slate.
Value
Markieff Morris remains massively underpriced on FanDuel, where his $4,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. He’s coming off 31.3 minutes in his last contest, and he should see a comparable workload today with Blake Griffin and Christian Wood out of the lineup once again. Morris has increased his production to 0.88 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, which makes him one of the top values on the entire slate.
Fast Break
Kelly Oubre is another elite value target on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 94%. He’s in an awesome pace-up spot vs. the Rockets, and he owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.50. He could see a few additional minutes in this contest if the Suns choose to play small, and Oubre has averaged 0.97 FanDuel points per minute this season.
Andrew Wiggins disappointed yesterday with Towns out of the lineup, but he would be a strong bounce-back target if Towns is ruled out again today. He leads the team with a usage rate of 29.1% in games without Towns this season.
Power Forward
Stud
Kawhi Leonard has not provided a ton of fantasy production with Paul George in the lineup this season, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of -2.69 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. He’s still on pace to set new career highs in both usage rate and assist rate, but his average of 31.5 minutes per game his kept his fantasy production modest.
That said, he does have a juicy matchup today vs. the San Antonio Spurs. This is one of the worst Spurs’ squads in recent memory, particularly on the defensive end of the court. They rank just 21st in defensive efficiency this season, and the Clippers’ implied team total of 116.0 ranks fifth on the slate.
Of course, this is also a potential #RevengeGame spot for Kawhi. The crowd was absolutely vicious towards him in his only game in San Antonio last season, so he could be out for blood in this contest. If you like narratives, this could be your guy.
Value
Dario Saric is another member of the Suns who could benefit from the game environment in Houston. He’s currently projected for 30 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged 0.95 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.17 on FanDuel, and his 11 Pro Trends are tied for the third-most at the position.
Fast Break
Davis Bertans remains priced at a discount on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 98%. He’s played at least 35.8 minutes in each of his past three games, and he should see another massive workload today with Rui Hachimura, Mo Wagner, and Thomas Bryant all out of the lineup. He’s increased his fantasy production to 0.99 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, thanks in part to his average of 3.9 made 3-pointers per game.
Finding value today on DraftKings is much harder than it is on FanDuel, especially at the PF position. LaMarcus Aldridge is one of just a handful of players with a Bargain Rating above 70%, so he could be worth paying up for in a solid matchup vs. the Clippers. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.14, and his 12 Pro Trends are the most at the position.
Center
Stud
Andre Drummond is coming off a disappointing outing yesterday vs. the Celtics, but he’s in an excellent bounce-back spot today vs. the Bulls. Chicago has been dreadful against opposing centers this season, giving Drummond an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.76 on DraftKings. They rank just 28th in team rebound rate, which plays right into Drummond’s biggest strength. Drummond has crushed against bottom-five rebounding teams this season, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.78.
He should also continue to benefit from the Pistons’ current injury situation. He was limited to just 30.8 minutes in yesterday’s contest, but he has the potential to play much more if today’s game stays competitive. Drummond has increased his usage rate by +1.3% in games without Griffin this season, resulting in an average of 51.46 points per 36 minutes.
Value
Gorgui Dieng would become an excellent source of value if Towns is unable to suit up. He’s played at least 23.6 minutes in each of his past two games, and he’s scored at least 25.0 DraftKings points in both. He’s averaged a stout 1.15 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he can take advantage of a bump in playing time.
His matchup vs. the Blazers is also elite, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.97.
Fast Break
Clint Capela stands out as one of the better values at the position on DraftKings, and he’s seen a nice spike in playing time recently. He’s logged at least 35.4 minutes in five of his past six games, including at least 38.5 in each of his past two. He’s averaged 1.17 DraftKings points per minute this season.
Drummond will likely garner the majority of attention for those paying up at center, which could make Joel Embiid a bit overlooked. He’s been pretty dominant recently, scoring at least 57.3 FanDuel points in three of his past four games, and he has a dream matchup vs. the Wizards. They rank dead last in team rebound rate in addition to dead last in defensive efficiency. He does have some blowout concerns — The 76ers are favored by 12.5 points — but Embiid possesses one of the highest ceilings if this game stays competitive.
Photo Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
Pictured: Raptors PF Serge Ibaka (9)
