The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features a nine-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Damian Lillard has missed each of the past two games due to a back injury, but he’s been upgraded to probable for tonight’s contest vs. the Cavaliers. His salary has dropped from a peak of $10,500 on FanDuel to $9,400, which makes him an interesting buy-low option if he’s back in the lineup. Lillard has carried a massive workload this season, leading the league with an average of 38.3 minutes per game, and he’s also averaged 1.24 FanDuel points per minute. That’s the third-highest mark among today’s PGs.
Lillard has an above-average matchup today vs. the Cavaliers. They currently rank 26th in defensive efficiency, and the Blazers’ implied team total of 114.75 ranks fourth on the slate.
Value
Shaq Harrison hasn’t played much this season, but he’s averaged a ridiculous 1.35 FanDuel points per minute when he’s gotten the opportunity to play. He has seen a spike in playing time over his past two contests, logging at least 23.2 minutes in both contests. He’s underpriced at just $4,500 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 97%.
Fast Break
Ja Morant stands out on DraftKings, where his $6,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 89%. The Grizzlies have been very cautious with him — he’s currently averaging just 27.8 minutes per game — but he is coming off a season-high 34.6 minutes in his last contest. Morant has averaged 1.17 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he can do some damage if he’s going to start playing more than 30 minutes a game.
Malcolm Brogdon is doubtful for today’s contest vs. the Magic, which gives us another opportunity to target Aaron Holiday. He’s ridiculously underpriced on FanDuel, where his $4,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. He scored 48.7 FanDuel points in his last contest, and somehow his salary decreased by $100. The Magic are a difficult matchup, but Holiday has been too productive to ignore at such a cheap price tag.
Shooting Guard
Stud
The Jazz are in one of the best spots of the day vs. the New Orleans Pelicans. They’ve played at the second-fastest pace this season and rank 22nd in defensive efficiency, which is a juicy combination for fantasy. The Jazz are currently implied for 114.0 points, which represents a massive increase when compared to their regular season average (104.9). This is definitely a team you want some exposure to.
Donovan Mitchell is the most obvious target for the Jazz. He leads the team with a usage rate of 31.3%, and he’s averaged 1.18 DraftKings points per minute this season. His 11 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position on DraftKings, and he owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.12.
Value
The Magic could be an interesting source of value today. Star big man Nikola Vucevic is expected to miss at least the next four weeks with an ankle injury, and Aaron Gordon and Michael Carter-Williams have been ruled out as well.
Wes Iwundu is someone who could be asked to play a larger role today, and he’s priced at the absolute minimum on DraftKings. He’s currently projected for 26.5 minutes in our NBA Models, and min-priced players have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.54 with a comparable minute projection (per the Trends tool). Iwundu has also averaged 0.78 DraftKings points per minute with Vucevic and Gordon off the court this season, so he’s slightly more productive than that typical min-priced player.
Fast Break
Fred VanVleet has been asked to carry a massive workload with Kyle Lowry out of the lineup recently. He’s currently projected for 38.3 minutes in our NBA Models, which is the top mark at the SG position. All that playing time has unsurprisingly led to fantasy success for VanVleet: He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past seven games on DraftKings.
Bruce Brown has thrived when given an opportunity for the Pistons this season. He’s coming off 37.3 FanDuel points in his last contest, and Brown has averaged a Plus/Minus of +9.18 in nice games where he’s played at least 25 minutes this season. He’s expected to meet that threshold today — we currently have him projected for 31.1 minutes — which makes him an appealing target at just $4,100.
Small Forward
Studs
There is plenty of value available today, which means it should be pretty easy to pay up for one of the two stud SFs. Giannis Antetokounmpo and LeBron James own the two highest price tags on DraftKings, and they also own the top median, ceiling, and floor projections in our Models.
Let’s start with Giannis. He’s lived up to his “Greek Freak” moniker this season, averaging a ridiculous 1.94 DraftKings points per minute. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +9.34 over his past 10 games, and he’s coming off 80.75 DraftKings points in his last contest. The Bucks lead the slate with an implied team total 120.0 points, and Giannis has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.72 when his team is implied for a comparable amount.
The only real concern is whether or not the Pistons can keep this game competitive. The spread on this game sits at 12.5, so Giannis could potentially see reduced minutes if this game turns into a blowout.
LeBron is putting together a special season in his second year with the Lakers. He’s transformed his game, operating more a distributor and less as a scorer this season. He currently leads the league with an average of 11.3 assists per game, while his average of 24.9 points per game would be his lowest mark since his rookie year. Still, all that passing has led to some tremendous fantasy results: His average of 56.03 DraftKings points per game would be the second-highest mark of his storied career.
He’s in a tremendous spot today vs. the Grizzlies. This is not the same grit-and-grind version of the Grizzlies that we’ve become accustomed to. They’re playing at the seventh-fastest pace and rank tied for 23rd in defensive efficiency, and LeBron owns an elite Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.19 on DraftKings. He leads the position with 11 Pro Trends.
Overall, LeBron seems like the safer option for cash games, while Giannis possesses the higher ceiling. It’s tough to see a scenario where you shouldn’t have at least one of these guys in your lineup.
Value
Cedi Osman is not a particularly fun player to roster. He’s averaged just 0.62 FanDuel points per minute this season, which is pretty unproductive. That said, he’s impossible to ignore at just $3,700 on FanDuel. He’s currently projected for 29.0 minutes, and the Cavs could additionally be without Kevin Love on today’s slate. He’s been downgraded to questionable, and Osman could see a few additional shot attempts and minutes if he’s ultimately ruled out.
Fast Break
Pascal Siakam continues to play more minutes than just about anyone in basketball for the shorthanded Raptors. He’s played just 34.7 minutes in his past two games, but the Raptors have won both of those contests by comfortable margins. He had played at least 41.2 minutes in each of his four prior games, and he could return to that workload if today’s contest vs. the Hawks stays competitive. He leads the position with 13 Pro Trends on FanDuel.
Miles Bridges is coming off a huge performance last night, scoring 47.5 DraftKings points vs. the Washington Wizards. His playing time has bounced back after a brief swoon, but his current price tag has yet to reflect that. He’s a nice target across the industry in another excellent matchup vs. the Bulls.
Power Forward
Stud
If you’re not paying up for a stud SF, Anthony Davis is probably the preferred target. He’s a particularly strong value on DraftKings, where his $10,000 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%.
Davis got off to a bit of a slow start this season, and his average of 1.46 DraftKings points per minute is well below his mark from his time in New Orleans. That said, he’s started to turn things around, scoring at least 61.25 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. This could be one of our last opportunities to buy low on Davis, especially in an excellent matchup.
Value
Skal Labissiere came out of nowhere in the Blazers last game, scoring 58.9 FanDuel points in a season-high 28.4 minutes. He remains pretty affordable at $4,200 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%. He’s averaged 1.06 FanDuel points per minute this season, so has produced at a high level when given the opportunity to play. He has a nice matchup vs. the Cavs, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.10 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
LaMarcus Aldridge has been hit-and-miss this season, which should keep his ownership down in a nice matchup vs. the Knicks. He leads the position with 13 Pro Trends on FanDuel.
On the other side of that matchup, Julius Randle stands out at $6,800 on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 88%. He’s gotten off to a slow start this season by his standards, averaging 1.06 DraftKings points per minute, but he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past two games.
Center
Stud
Andre Drummond has seen his price drop to just $8,300 on DraftKings, which makes him one of the strongest options of the day. He’s coming off a dominant performance yesterday vs. the Hawks, scoring 50.25 in just 27.6 minutes, and he’s in another excellent spot today vs. the Bucks. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.86 on DraftKings, and he leads the position with 13 Pro Trends.
Drummond owns the highest projected Plus/Minus at the center position on DraftKings, and he also owns third-highest ceiling projection. That makes him a strong play in all formats.
Value
Mo Bamba has largely been considered a bust after the Magic drafted him with the No. 6 pick in the 2018 draft, but he’s going to have a chance to play more given the injury to Vucevic. Bamba has averaged 0.90 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he has the potential to provide solid upside at the absolute minimum on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Rudy Gobert is an interesting option if you’re paying up at the position on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 81%. He doesn’t have a great individual matchup vs. the Pelicans, but he’s been a phenomenal fantasy asset over his past 10 games, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.89 on FanDuel.
Pictured: Magic C Mo Bamba (5)
Photo Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
