The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features an 11-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Damian Lillard stands out as an elite option today vs. the New Orleans Pelicans. It’s one of the best possible matchups for a PG, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.99 on DraftKings. The Pelicans rank fourth in pace and 26th in defensive efficiency, and the Blazers’ implied team total of 118.0 is the top mark on the slate.
Lillard would also benefit if Carmelo Anthony is forced to miss another game. He’s increased his usage rate by +3.7% with Melo off the court since joining the rotation on 11/19, resulting in an average of 1.34 DraftKings points per minute.
Lillard looks like one of the top options of the day on DraftKings, where his $8,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 85%.
Value
Tonight’s game between the Knicks and the Wizards figures to be one of the best of the day from a fantasy perspective. Both teams have been dreadful defensively this season, and Washington has played at the second-fastest pace in the league. Both teams are also dealing with injuries, which further increases their appeal.
On the Wizards side, Ish Smith will likely move into the starting lineup to replace the suspended Isaiah Thomas. He’s currently projected for 32.3 minutes in our NBA Models, and Smith has averaged 0.90 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. That’s a lot of potential production at just $4,500 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Dejounte Murray has been a tremendous source of value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +6.51 over his past six games on FanDuel. That said, his price has barely budged over that time frame, and his current $6,000 price tag actually represents a decrease of -$700 over the past month. He’s definitely in play in a great matchup vs. the Grizzlies, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.79.
Kyle Lowry is coming off a monster performance in his last outing, scoring 55.6 FanDuel points in a massive come-from-behind victory vs. the Mavs. He’s one of the best values at the position on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 81%, and he should be asked to carry another large workload given their current injury situation.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden is priced at just $11,000, which seems way too cheap for him. He’s averaged 1.70 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s coming off 69.5 DraftKings points in his last contest. Overall, Harden has only owned a comparable price tag in five games this season, but he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.10 in those contests (per the Trends tool).
His matchup vs. the Kings is a bit of a mixed bag. They rank 18th in defensive efficiency this season, but they’ve also played at the slowest pace in the league. Still, Harden owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.42 on DraftKings, and the Rockets’ implied team total of 117.75 ranks second on the slate.
Value
R.J. Barrett has the potential to see a few additional minutes for the Knicks today. Marcus Morris is currently listed as doubtful, while Taj Gibson is listed as questionable. Barrett has averaged 0.84 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he can do some damage vs. the Wizards with a bump in playing time.
Fast Break
On the other side of that matchup, Bradley Beal has the potential to carry one of the largest workloads on the entire slate. Thomas is suspended, and virtually every big man with a pulse has been ruled out for injuries. Beal is projected for a position-high 39.2 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s increased his production to 1.41 DraftKings points per minute with Thomas and the injured big men off the court this season.
This slate is absolutely loaded, so it’s tough to touch on every fantasy-relevant player without rambling on for thousands of words. Here are a couple rapid-fire thoughts on SGs that are popping in our Models:
- C.J. McCollum: He’s crushed over his past four games, scoring at least 42.0 DraftKings points in each, and he remains priced at a discount at $6,500 on DraftKings. He also benefits from the same elite matchup as Lillard vs. the Pelicans.
- Buddy Hield/Bogdan Bogdanovic: The Kings are in one of the largest pace-up spots possible vs. the Rockets, which makes them excellent fantasy targets. Bogdanovic is currently questionable, and his absence would vault Hield into elite territory.
- Andrew Wiggins: Karl-Anthony Towns is listed as questionable, and Wiggins would obviously get a bump in his absence. He’s averaged 35.66 FanDuel points in five games without Towns this season, and his $7,500 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%.
Small Forward
Stud
SF is surprisingly thin at the top for an 11-game slate, but most of the big names at the position are being held out for the Christmas day slate. Brandon Ingram is the only SF priced above $6,800 on FanDuel. There are plenty of options worth paying up for elsewhere, so paying down at the position is definitely a viable strategy.
Alec Burks has the potential to provide stud-like production at a fraction of the cost. The Warriors are in desperate need of offense, and he’s been filling that role recently. He’s scored at least 31.0 FanDuel points in five of his past six games, and the Warriors could potentially be without Glenn Robinson III and Eric Paschall for tonight’s matchup vs. the Timberwolves.
Value
Harrison Barnes stands out as a massive value today on FanDuel, where his $4,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.87 vs. the Rockets, and his 10 Pro Trends is one of the top marks at the position. Historically, comparably priced players have averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.26 with a similar number of Pro Trends.
Fast Break
Kelly Oubre is another excellent option on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 94%. He’s coming off 37.8 minutes in his last contest, and he’s averaged 0.97 FanDuel points per minute this season. The Suns are dealing with a bunch of injuries at the moment — Deandre Ayton is out, Ricky Rubio is questionable, Frank Kaminsky and Dario Saric are probable — so Oubre could be looking at a comparable workload today.
Troy Brown could be looking at an expanded role for the Wizards, which makes him an appealing option at $4,800 on DraftKings. He’s averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to potentially pay off his salary.
Power Forward
Stud
Domantas Sabonis is listed as questionable for today’s matchup vs. the Raptors, but he was able to play through his injury yesterday. He filled up the stat sheet in that contest, recording 19 points, 18 rebounds, five assists, two steals, and two blocks. He even drained two 3-pointers, resulting in 59.1 FanDuel points in just under 31 minutes.
He’s in an interesting spot vs. the Raptors. They’re a tough defensive team — they currently rank second in defensive efficiency — but they are extremely thin in the frontcourt at the moment. Pascal Siakam and Marc Gasol are both out indefinitely, so this matchup is not as tough as it appears on paper.
Sabonis leads the position with 13 Pro Trends, and he owns the top ceiling projection at the position as well.
Value
Dario Saric was limited to just 19.3 minutes yesterday vs. the Rockets, but he was still able to post a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel. He’s expected to return to his normal workload today — we currently have him projected for 32 minutes in our NBA Models — and his price has decreased to just $4,300 on FanDuel. That results in a Bargain Rating of 94%, making him one of the strongest options at the position.
Fast Break
Julius Randle has largely been a disappointment in his first season with the Knicks, but he has started to turn things around recently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six games on DraftKings, and he’s increased his production to 1.14 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He would likely see a few additional minutes if Morris and/or Gibson is unable to suit up, which would increase his appeal in an elite matchup vs. the Wizards.
LaMarcus Aldridge is coming off a poor performance in his last game, but he’s an interesting bounce-back candidate today vs. the Grizzlies. He had been excellent prior to his last game, scoring at least 38.1 FanDuel points in four of five games.
Center
Stud
The center position is loaded on today’s slate. Towns and Joel Embiid are both listed as questionable, so you’ll need to monitor their status as the day progresses. Make sure to take advantage of Justin Phan’s new NBA Insiders tool for up to the minute information on both players. You can even check out what the projections would look like with both players in or out of the lineup, which allows you to get a leg up on your competition.
Even if both players are in the lineup, Hassan Whiteside has a strong case for the top spot at the position. No center has been better on a per-minute basis over the past month, and Whiteside is coming off more than 38 minutes in his last contest. He could see a few less minutes if Anthony returns to the lineup, but he’s been playing around 32 minutes with the team at full strength. That should be more than enough playing time to do damage vs. the Pelicans.
Whiteside stands out as a particularly strong target on DraftKings, where his $7,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 87%.
Value
Anzejs Pasecniks is an unknown even for die-hard NBA fans, but he’s going to play a large role in the depleted Wizards’ frontcourt today. He’s currently projected for 25.7 minutes at just $3,500 on DraftKings, and centers with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.23. He isn’t as productive as the typical center when he’s on the court — he’s averaged just 0.58 DraftKings points per minute over a limited sample — but he has a chance to pay off his salary through sheer volume.
Fast Break
Nikola Vucevic is the rare center who stands out as a better value on FanDuel than DraftKings. He’s priced at just $7,700, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 91%, and he’s in an elite matchup vs. the Chicago Bulls. They’ve hemorrhaged fantasy points to opposing centers this season, giving Vucevic an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.16.
Mitchell Robinson has two big problems as a fantasy asset: foul trouble and a lack of playing time. The later may not be a concern today if Gibson and Morris are ruled out, which would make him an interesting option at just $5,800 on DraftKings. He has massive upside if he sees a bump in playing time, particularly in an elite matchup vs. the Wizards.
Photo Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
Pictured: Wizards SG Bradley Beal (3)
