Friday features a five-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Trae Young has been priced up across the industry recently, but it has certainly been warranted. He has posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.20 over his past 10 games on FanDuel, and he’s scored at least 49.0 FanDuel points in four straight games. He’s averaged 1.29 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, which is the top mark among today’s PGs.
The Hawks are in a tough spot today vs. the Milwaukee Bucks, who rank first in defensive efficiency and second in offensive efficiency. This is definitely a potential blowout spot – the Hawks are currently eight-point underdogs at home – but Young has nice upside if this game stays competitive.
Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Atlanta Hawks guard Trae Young (11).
The Bucks have played at the fastest pace this season, giving Young an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.27. He leads all players with 15 Pro Trends on FanDuel, and point guards with a comparable number of Pro Trends and price tag have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.22 (per the Trends tool).
Value
On the other side of that matchup, George Hill stands out as an appealing value play across the industry. He’s seen a slight bump in playing time given the injury to Eric Bledsoe, and he’s currently projected for 25.5 minutes in our NBA Models. Hill has averaged 1.10 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so that should be enough playing time for him to return value in a nice matchup vs. the Hawks.
Fast Break
The Pacers’ PG situation will be an important one to monitor heading into lineup lock. Malcolm Brogdon is expected to be a game-time decision, and if he’s able to go, he’s almost undoubtedly underpriced across the industry. He’s seen a price decrease of -$2,200 over the past month on FanDuel and -$1,200 over the past month on DraftKings.
If he’s unable to suit up, Aaron Holiday would become a strong value play. He’s seen a team-high usage bump of +3.6% with Brogdon off the court this season, resulting in an average of 0.95 DraftKings points per minute.
T.J. McConnell would also see a few additional minutes, and he’s even cheaper at $3,800 on FanDuel and $4,300 on DraftKings. He likely wouldn’t play as much as Holiday, but he’s averaged a superior 1.00 DraftKings points per minute with Brogdon off the court.
Chris Paul has been one of the better values at the position recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +8.31 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. He’s increased his production to 1.16 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s also been playing a few additional minutes recently. He’s a nice value at $7,300 on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 73%.
Shooting Guard
Stud
D’Angelo Russell is coming off a subpar game on Christmas, but he had scored at least 42.0 DraftKings points in each of his three prior contests. His price has decreased by -$1,000 over the past month on DraftKings, which makes him a strong target at just $7,400. It results in a Bargain Rating of 78%, and Russell has averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.95 with a comparable salary and minute projection this season.
He has a nice matchup today vs. the Suns, who rank tied for ninth in pace and 19th in defensive efficiency. The Warriors are implied for 110.5 points, which represents a significant increase from their regular season average (105.2).
Value
Wes Matthews is expected to see a healthy amount of playing time today for the Bucks. He’s currently projected for 30.2 minutes in our NBA Models, which makes him tough to avoid at just $3,700 on DraftKings. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.69. The Hawks are also an appealing matchup, rewarding Matthews with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.31.
Fast Break
Donte DiVincenzo is another candidate to see an increased workload for the Bucks. He’s already seen a healthy amount of playing time recently, and he has the potential to carry a larger offensive workload with Giannis Antetokounmpo currently listed as doubtful.
Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Milwaukee Bucks guard Donte DiVincenzo (0).
Divincenzo has increased his usage rate by +7.6% with Giannis and Bledsoe off the court, resulting in an average of 1.09 FanDuel points per minute. He’s a stronger option today on FanDuel, where his $4,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 75%.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has gone off over his past four games, averaging 42.2 FanDuel points per game. He’s played at least 34.5 minutes in each of those contests, and he’s played 36 minutes or more in three of them. His salary on FanDuel has yet to reflect that production, making him a strong target at $7,000.
Small Forward
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo is coming off quite possibly the worst game of his career on Christmas. The 76ers were basically daring him to beat them from the perimeter, and Giannis was more than happy to take the bait. He missed 19 shot attempts in that contests – including all seven of his 3-point attempts – which was the most misses of his entire career.
Still, even Giannis is allowed to have a bad game from time-to-time, and the 76ers presented him with a tough defensive challenge. Things should be much easier for him today vs. the Atlanta Hawks, who don’t defend the paint at nearly the same level.
Unfortunately, Giannis has been downgraded to doubtful for today’s contest, so it seems unlikely that we’ll be able to target him in an obvious bounce-back spot.
If he is out of the picture, Khris Middleton becomes an elite target across the industry. He’s been balling recently, increasing his fantasy production to 1.30 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
Middleton has also increased his usage rate by a whopping +11.4% with Giannis and Bledsoe off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.52 DraftKings points per minute. He’s easily one of the top plays of the day if Giannis is ruled out.
Value
There isn’t an obvious “value” target at the SF position today, but Kelly Oubre is standing out at his price tag across the industry. He’s played at least 37.8 minutes in each of his past two games, and he’s averaged 0.96 FanDuel points per minute this season.
Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Phoenix Suns forward Kelly Oubre Jr. (3).
He owns 11 Pro Trends on FanDuel, which is tied for the top mark at the position, and he has an elite matchup vs. the Golden State Warriors. They’ve struggled defensively this season, and the Suns’ implied team total of 113.5 ranks second on the slate.
Fast Break
Jimmy Butler has SF eligibility on DraftKings, where his $7,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 75%. He should continue to benefit from the absence of Justise Winslow, with Butler leading the team in both usage rate and assist rate in games without Winslow this season. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +2.8 in those contests, and his average salary in those games is more than $500 higher than his current price tag.
Alec Burks took a backseat to Damion Lee on Christmas, which ultimately limited him to just 23.7 minutes of playing time. He was still productive when on the court, scoring 22.0 FanDuel points, and he should return to his normal workload today. He’s currently projected for 30.1 minutes, which makes him a nice bounce-back target vs. the Suns.
Power Forward
Stud
John Collins did not disappoint in his first game back from suspension, scoring 51.0 FanDuel points vs. the Cleveland Cavaliers. He played just under 35 minutes in that contest, and he averaged 1.46 FanDuel points per minute.
His matchup vs. the Bucks is a little tougher – they rank third in the league in team rebound rate – but it is a nice pace-up spot. I like the idea of pairing Collins with some of the Bucks if you choose to target them without Giannis. You need this game to stay competitive those players to reach full value, and it’s hard to imagine that happening without a strong game from Collins.
Value
The Suns’ big men have one of the best matchups of the day vs. the Warriors, and they have a pair of appealing options in Dario Saric and Frank Kaminsky. Saric is the better bet for minutes – he’s currently projected for 28 in our NBA Models – and he stands out as an elite value on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $4,200, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 95%.
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Phoenix Suns forward Frank Kaminsky (8).
Kamisky looks like the stronger target on DraftKings at $3,900. He probably won’t play as much as Saric, but he’s averaged a stout 1.13 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
Fast Break
Today’s contest between the Magic and 76ers figures to be one of the slowest of the day, resulting in a slate-low total of just 208.5 points. Still, it’s hard to ignore Al Horford on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 75%. He’s averaged 1.03 DraftKings points per minute this season and is currently projected for 30.7 minutes, which makes him a solid target at $5,700.
Draymond Green has not been able to play his usual Swiss army knife-style for the Warriors this season, but he’s still averaged a respectable 1.02 FanDuel points per minute. He’s scored at least 35.3 FanDuel points in back-to-back games, and he remains priced at a discount at $6,500 for tonight’s matchup vs. the Suns.
Center
Stud
Joel Embiid has quietly started to heat up for the 76ers. He’s increased his fantasy production to 1.61 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and the only thing that has stopped him from some dominant performances has been reduced minutes in blowouts. He was well on his way to a monster game vs. the Bucks on Christmas but was ultimately limited to 55.75 DraftKings points in 28.4 minutes.
Today’s matchup vs. the Magic is not ideal for fantasy purposes, but that could make him underowned on a small slate. He’s currently projected for just 13-16% ownership on DraftKings compared to greater than 20% ownership for Young and 40% ownership for Middleton.
There isn’t nearly the same blowout concerns with Embiid — The 76ers are currently favored by just three points on the road — which makes him a very appealing pivot for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). Young is the only player with a higher ceiling projection in our NBA Models.
Value
The downside with Embiid on FanDuel is that you’ll have to miss one of the best value plays of the day. Aron Baynes is grading out as one of the strongest options on the entire slate. He owns an elite matchup vs. the Warriors, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.49, and his $4,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%. He’s averaged 1.05 FanDuel points per minute this season and should see plenty of playing time with Deandre Ayton still sidelined with an ankle injury.
Fast Break
Steven Adams continues to get the job done for the Thunder, posting an average Plus/Minus of +6.03 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. He even displayed a sweet little eurostep in his last game:
Kiwi/Euro Step 🤪 https://t.co/ZftK37f3Rm pic.twitter.com/yM6p5TvxK2
— OKC THUNDER (@okcthunder) December 27, 2019
Despite that production, his salary has actually decreased by -$1,000 compared to his peak of $7,400, which makes him a nice value vs. the Hornets. He’s only projected for 29.3 minutes, but he’s increased his production to 1.27 FanDuel points per minute over the past month.
Willie Cauley-Stein stands out as an elite value on DraftKings, where his $4,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 91%. He’s averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s played at least 30.2 minutes in each of his past two games. He may not see as much playing time today – the Warriors don’t really need his size against the Suns – but he still has huge upside at his current price tag.
Photo Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
Pictured: Hawks PF John Collins (20)
