Thursday presents a four-game slate to attack. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: James Harden vs. Phoenix Suns – $9,100
Harden’s salary has strangely dropped to a new season low, and he is a standout value for Thursday’s four-game slate at this discounted price. With Kawhi Leonard (knee) sidelined and Paul George out of town, Harden has been an excellent fantasy asset as the Clippers’ centerpiece this season, scoring 52.4 DraftKings PPG in his first four starts.
The former MVP is handling a 34% usage rate – which is the highest usage Harden has seen since 2020 – and he ranks second in the NBA in assist percentage at 47.6%. Harden is producing 1.5 DraftKings PPM, and tonight, he faces a Suns team he went off for 56.5 DraftKings points against in the season opener. Harden is a top-five value on the slate in the ShotQuality projections, and he is a must-play for this small slate.
Top Value: Tyus Jones at Los Angeles Clippers – $5,400
Phoenix desperately needed to add a true point guard to their roster after last season, and Jones has been a great match for the club so far, scoring 28.6 DraftKings points in 32.6 minutes per game as the Suns’ starting point guard. The veteran has led the team with a 28.9% assist rate and he is supplying 0.9 DraftKings PPM.
Jones finished with a season-best 32 DraftKings points in the season opener vs. the Clippers, and he brings a similar upside Thursday night, making him one of the better mid-tier targets on the board.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Kyrie Irving vs. Houston Rockets – $7,500
Irving has recorded at least 47 DraftKings points in back-to-back starts, and he has been lights out from deep this season, shooting a career-best 54% on three-pointers. Coming to town tonight is a Rockets team that Irving exposed for 48.7 DraftKings PPG in three matchups last season, and the Mavericks’ implied team total is the second-highest on the slate in this spot (116 points).
Irving is generating 45.6 DraftKings PPG when playing at home and behind an implied team total of at least 115 points over the last two seasons (25 games) – via the Trends Tool – and the guard’s ceiling is easily the highest on the slate among shooting guards in the ShotQuality projections.
Top Value: Jordan Clarkson vs. San Antonio Spurs – $5,200
Clarkson has surpassed 30 DraftKings points in two of his first four games of the season and is a viable target to begin with, but if Lauri Markkanen (questionable, back) sits, Clarkson would be a no-brainer for all formats. In the eight games the guard played with Markkanen inactive last season, Clarkson provided 32.1 DraftKings PPG. In those tilts, the veteran’s usage and assist rates rose to 27.9% and 28.2%, respectively, via the On/Off Tool.
The Spurs rank 20th in defensive efficiency, and Clarkson would have a ceiling of 40 DraftKings points if Markkanen is unavailable.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Norman Powell vs. Phoenix Suns – $5,600
With Markkanen’s status in question, Powell is the top option to consider at small forward Thursday. With Leonard hurt and George now with the 76ers, Powell has been the Clippers’ second option behind Harden, with Powell handling a 26.6% usage rate. With this role, Powell is averaging 35.6 DraftKings points in 33.6 minutes per game, including two efforts over 40 DraftKings points in his first four starts.
Powell clearly is underpriced at this sub $6,000 salary, and he can be trusted in all formats.
Top Value: John Konchar vs. Memphis Grizzlies – $3,600
If either Smart or Bane sits, which feels likely, Konchar should garner a large role, possibly as a starter – the veteran started the second half in place of the hurt Smart last night. Nonetheless, Konchar will be a viable punt if the Grizzlies are shorthanded as expected in this slate-high total vs. the Bucks (232 points).
Konchar is collecting 0.83 DraftKings PPM this season and 19.5 DraftKings PPG for the last 10 instances he has logged over 20 minutes.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo at Memphis Grizzlies – $10,700
Antetokounmpo is hard to ignore at this season-low salary. The Grizzlies have been a great matchup thus far, ranking 22nd defensive efficiency and third in pace, and as noted above, this contest’s total is the highest on the board (232 points). Additionally, the Bucks boast the largest implied team total on the slate (119.25 points).
Including a 59 DraftKings point outing, Antetoukonmpo is amassing 62.9 DraftKings PPG when playing behind an implied team total of at least 118 points the last two seasons (41 games), via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Jeremy Sochan at Utah Jazz – $5,800
After dealing with foul trouble in the season opener, Sochan has been terrific, scoring at least 35 DraftKings points in each of his past three starts. Sochan is leading the Spurs in playing time this season with 32.3 minutes per game, which is a career-high for the forward. His usage has also been excellent, at a career-high 25.8%, which is a massive 6.0 percentage point lift from last season and the second-highest usage for San Antonio this season, only trailing Victor Wembanyama.
Sochan should be priced near $7,000 considering his production and role, and he is a core play for this small slate, going against a Jazz defense that ranks 23rd in efficiency.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Alperen Sengun at Dallas Mavericks – $8,500
This is a great time to buy low on Sengun. FantasyLabs projections are slating him to be only around 6% owned on DraftKings tonight, which is extremely low for a four-game slate, and this matchup with Dallas is an appealing get-right spot for Sengun. In two matchups with the Mavericks last season, the center was a beast with 49.5 DraftKings PPG.
Sengun’s results this season have been inconsistent, with one 66 DraftKings points outing and three sub-40 DraftKings-points showings, but his usage has remained strong at 26%, and he is still producing a large 1.5 DraftKings PPM. Given his track record against Dallas, Sengun could erupt tonight and he is the best contrarian play for this short slate.
Top Value: Daniel Gafford vs. Houston Rockets – $4,500
Opposite of Sengun, Gafford needs to be on your radar tonight. While there was chatter about Dereck Lively starting at center for the Mavericks this season, they have stuck with Gafford, and he has been rock solid, contributing 23.4 DraftKings points in 19.3 minutes per game.
The veteran hasn’t scored less than 22 DraftKings points this season, and he has tallied at least two defensive stats in three of his four starts. Gafford’s salary reached $6,100 last season, and he is a superb bargain at $4,500.
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