The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic vs. San Antonio Spurs – $11,000 DraftKings, $10,700 FanDuel
The Spurs have been going through it on the defensive end, ranking 17th in efficiency, which has contributed to their 1-3 start. Doncic should be well-equipped to handle this matchup.
The MVP candidate is coming off back-to-back games of 4.9-times his salary or greater, averaging around 59 DKFP on DraftKings. In those two games, he’s seen a usage rating of 35.7% or higher, scored 26.5 points per game, and collected a total of 23 rebounds. Luka is on a heater, and we project him to have one of the highest ceilings at any position on the slate.
Top Value: Spencer Dinwiddie vs. Atlanta Hawks – $7,200 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel
You’ll get more joy out of playing Dinwiddie over on FanDuel, where he’s got an 87% bargain rating, but this price — and matchup — are too good to ignore no matter where you play.
With Raul Neto and Cassius Winston out again, Dinwiddie is projected to see a heavy dose of minutes and carries a Projected Plus/Minus in the double-digits according to our NBA Model. He also has a date with Trae Young, which is a matchup he should be exploiting, given Young’s struggles on that end.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Bradley Beal vs. Atlanta Hawks – $9,200 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel
We’re going back to the same matchup here with Beal, who carries an Opponent Plus/Minus of +0.95 into this one matching up with Bogdan Bogdanovic of the Hawks.
Beal’s role in this offense has never been questioned, but a season-high Usage Rate of 37.8% in his third game of the season, which saw him record nearly 40 fantasy points despite another poor shooting night, allows for plenty of upward mobility.
Top Value: De’Anthony Melton vs. Golden State Warriors – $5,100 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel
Melton is a prime candidate for a little extra run with the Grizzlies coming in on the second night of a back-to-back. He saw just 25 minutes in Wednesday’s loss, but with Desmond Bane getting knocked out of the game late after taking a shot to the head, there’s always the possibility he could miss the contest and open up even more time for Melton.
Regardless of Bane’s status, though, Melton makes for a good cheap play at shooting guard with a relatively high floor, a +4.92 Projected Plus/Minus, and a projection that could push towards six-times salary.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: DeMar DeRozan vs. New York Knicks – $7,600 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel
There may not be a hotter player outside of the top tier than DeRozan, who has gone for around 40 fantasy points per game on both sites over the last two games and carried a strong Usage Rate over 31.8% in his last three contests. Though he draws the pesky Knicks, our model respects what DeRozan has done.
We project the wing to see a ceiling around 50 points on this slate and have him hitting 5X value at the very least.
Top Value: RJ Barrett vs. Chicago Bulls – $5,500 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel
Tom Thibodeau’s Knicks have finally embraced the three-pointer, leading the way in attempts per game. Barrett has been a beneficiary, taking around six per game.
Though they haven’t all fallen for Barrett — he hit three on opening night and has averaged around 10 points per game since — the potential for a big game still remains with his usage, which is high relative to his minutes. Our model projects him to eclipse the 20% mark in Usage Rate and carry a +7.66 Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel, making him a superb option at this price.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Julius Randle vs. Chicago Bulls – $9,500 DraftKings, $9,900 FanDuel
Well, I think we know what game to target. Our model loves Randle on Thursday night against the Bulls, who have been weak on the interior and enter with one of the worst rebounding rates in basketball. According to the model, the big man has the potential to eclipse 60 fantasy points on both sites and should take full advantage of this mismatch inside.
Top Value: Alize Johnson vs. New York Knicks – $3,200 DraftKings, $3,500 FanDuel
Heavens, another one from this game. The model really believes in Johnson, who is projected to hit at least 5.4 Pts/Sal on both sites. He rates stronger in our Cash Model than our Tournament Model but could be a good provider of value, with Patrick Williams seeing inconsistent minutes. Johnson did look good last year with the Nets and could perform well given the minutes.
However, Johnson shouldn’t be considered as anything more than a GPP punt if you need the salary. He’ll need to be incredibly efficient with our current minute projection on him. Over the last 12 months, Johnson has a 14.09 Player Efficiency Rating (PER), which is slightly below the league average, and he has a Consistency Rating of just 37% over that same time frame.
Center
Top Ceiling: Joel Embiid vs. Detroit Pistons – $9,800 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel
Embiid carries an injury designation into this one, so you’ll want to keep a close eye on his status. Assuming he plays, though, his ceiling stands out on this slate.
The big man enters with a massive +11.25 Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel and is a strong play on that site with a 79% Leverage Rating and an 85% Bargain Rating.
Top Value: Montrezl Harrell vs. Atlanta Hawks – $5,300 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel
Our model likes many of the Wizards on Thursday’s slate, with the aforementioned Beal and Dinwiddie joining Kyle Kuzma with strong projections. Harrell is another who was already in line for a strong showing according to our model before Daniel Gafford went down with an injury. With Rui Hachimura already out, Harrell could be in line for a strong complement of minutes.
Harrell, who has recorded 1.1 fantasy points per minute, should be worth at least six times what you pay for him and enters with a +1.18 Opponent Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
