The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Jrue Holiday at Philadelphia 76ers – $7,900 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel
Holiday’s Bucks and the Clippers are the last two teams to get their season underway with their place on the two-game schedule this Thursday. The Bucks will be without Khris Middleton to start the year, placing more of the offensive workload on Holiday and the rest of the Bucks’ rotation. Last season, Holiday’s usage with Middleton on the floor was 20.6%, producing 1.04 DKFP per minute, but with Middleton off the floor, Holiday’s usage jumped to 27.7%, and he produced 1.22 DKFP per minute.
He played 35 minutes in the Bucks’ exhibition finale, so he should be ramped up and ready for a heavy workload. In fact, Holiday has the highest projected usage of any PG on the slate, even more than James Harden (discussed below). Since his salary is significantly lower than Harden’s, and the 76ers’ defense still looked like a work in progress on opening night, I like using Holiday as the anchor for multiple styles of roster construction Thursday.
Top Value: Tyrese Maxey vs. Milwaukee Bucks – $5,200 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel
Flipping to the other side of that early matchup, Maxey makes sense as a midrange target, bringing the third-highest projected ceiling of all PGs in play for the fifth-highest salary on DraftKings.
In Tuesday’s season opener, the starting PG had 21 points and 29.75 DKFP in a team-high 38 minutes. The Sixers are going to give him every opportunity to succeed and step into his complementary role next to Harden and Joel Embiid. Maxey has the highest projected Plus/Minus at the point guard position on DraftKings with his lower salary.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: James Harden vs. Milwaukee Bucks – $9,000 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel
It still feels like we’re getting an early-season discount on Harden at this salary. He will have to deal with tough defense from Holiday, but his ceiling is impossible to ignore on such a small slate. He has the highest ceiling projection for any SG and the fourth-highest of all the players on the slate.
On Tuesday, Harden looked healthier and in better shape than at any point last season, and his shooting touch looked in midseason form. He only took 14 shots from the field, making nine while shooting a perfect 12-for-12 from the free three line. He added eight rebounds and eight assists to his 35 points and led the team with 56.5 DKFP in their loss to the Celtics.
Harden can be a walking bucket when he’s on his game, and his willingness to contribute rebounds and assists make him a triple-double threat on any given night. Philly will be very motivated to avoid an 0-2 start to the season, and Harden will likely do the heavy lifting to try and push them to a win in their home opener.
Top Value: De’Anthony Melton vs. Milwaukee Bucks – $3,800 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel
There is another game Thursday, and I promise we’ll get to it, but if you need value at one of your guard spots, Melton is too good an option to overlook. He has the highest projected Plus/Minus at SG on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and he brings the best ceiling projection for any player with a salary under $4.5K on FanDuel and under $4K on DraftKings.
Melton played 21 minutes off the bench on Tuesday but only produced five points and one steal for 7.5 DKFP. The good news, though, was his prominent spot in the rotation and the opportunity he has going forward. Last year in Memphis, he averaged 10.8 points, 4.5 rebounds, 2.7 assists, and 1.4 steals in 22.7 minutes per contest, so the upside is there for him as he settles in.
Melton is also projected to have under 30% ownership after his underwhelming opener, making him a great spot to get some leverage on this small slate.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: LeBron James vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $9,300 DraftKings, $10,800 FanDuel
The almost 38-year-old James began his 20th season in the NBA with an excellent performance against the Warriors, producing 61 DKFP on 31 points, 14 rebounds, eight assists, and three 3-pointers in his 31 minutes on opening night. Last season, he produced 1.42 DKFP per minute while averaging 30.3 points, 8.2 rebounds, 6.2 assists, 1.3 steals, and 1.1 blocks per game.
He has shown no signs of slowing down and brings the third-highest median projection and the third-highest projected ceiling of any player on the slate. He will have to deal with tough defense from the Clippers and Kawhi Leonard, but LeBron has proven he can still be an elite producer regardless of the matchup.
Since his salary is lower on DraftKings, he also has the highest projected Plus/Minus at SF, even though he’s one of the most expensive plays on the slate. James also matches 14 of the Pro Trends coming into tonight, the most of any player at any position on this slate.
Top Value: Lonnie Walker vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $4,100 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel
Walker became a free agent last offseason when the Spurs rescinded their qualifying offer, and he signed with the Lakers later that same day. He could grow into a nice source of shooting and peripheral production as the season goes on, and it looks like he has earned significant playing time as the season opens from new Lakers’ coach Darvin Ham.
Walker started on Tuesday and played 29 minutes, finishing with five points, five assists, three rebounds, one steal, and a block for 19.75 DKFP. He played the fourth-most minutes on the team behind only the “Big Three” of James, Anthony Davis, and Russell Westbrook.
His per-minute production has always been intriguing, but with the Spurs, he could never get consistent enough playing time to be a fantasy regular. A move to a new team that needs his skill set should open doors for the 23-year-old, who has the third-highest projected Plus/Minus at SF on DraftKings and the sixth-highest at SF on FanDuel.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo at Philadelphia 76ers – $10,700 DraftKings, $11,300 FanDuel
Even on a small, star-studded slate, Giannis stands out as an exceptionally good play with the highest ceiling of any player in the NBA. The Bucks will rely on him even more with Middleton out, and last season without Middleton, Antetokounmpo’s produced 1.68 DKFP per minute.
Among all the players on the slate, he has the top median and ceiling projection by a wide margin, and he even brings the second-highest projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
If those raw numbers and projections aren’t enough, his recent history against the Sixers is also outstanding. Last year, he posted over 60 DKFP in each of his three games against Philly, highlighted by a 40-point triple-double that resulted in 75 DKFP in their most recent meeting last March in Philadelphia.
Top Value: Marcus Morris Sr. – $4,500 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel
Morris was named the starting PF for the Clippers this preseason and should be in that role after returning to the team following the birth of his son. He was limited to 54 games last year but averaged a solid 15.4 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 2.1 assists for 25.95 DKFP in 29.0 minutes per game.
With Kawhi Leonard and Paul George healthy to start the season, Morris may have a slightly reduced role, but he’s still projected for comfortably over 20 fantasy points in this matchup with a ceiling of over 30. The relatively safe floor and good ceiling make him worth a look at this salary.
He has the third-highest projected Plus/Minus among PFs on FanDuel.
Center
Top Ceiling: Joel Embiid vs. Milwaukee Bucks – $10,300 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel
Embiid started the season with 26 points, 15 rebounds, and 53.25 DKFP in his 37 minutes against the Celtics. Those numbers could have been even better if not for some early foul trouble.
He ranks behind only Giannis in median projection, ceiling projection, and usage projection for this slate, and his ownership projection is over 10% lower. There could be a chance for some decent leverage in GPP lineups by stacking the two bigs from the Eastern Conference game and filling in with values from the late game or even fading a chalky Giannis and hoping Embiid is simply unstoppable.
Top Value: Bobby Portis at Philadelphia 76ers– $5,400 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel
We’ll come full circle to finish things out since, like Holiday, Portis is another member of the Bucks that will have to shoulder more offensive work without Middleton in the early going this year. He has the third-highest projected Plus/Minus at both PF and C on DraftKings and the second-highest at both positions on FanDuel. His positional flexibility adds to his value, making him a good fit in one place or the other in most roster builds.
Coming off career-high averages in points (14.6) and rebounds (9.1) last season, Portis is poised for even more success this year, especially until Middleton returns. His matchup with P.J. Tucker looks a little intimidating at first, but remember that Jayson Tatum had no trouble producing on Tuesday. While Portis isn’t in that category as a scorer, he should definitely find a way to return good value from his mid-level price point on this slate.
Get $100 Sign-up Bonus!
