On the menu for Thursday night is a three-game slate. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Damian Lillard vs. Utah Jazz – $9,500
Lillard is a viable play for this small slate, who would be unavoidable if Giannis Antetokounmpo (questionable, adductor) misses his second straight game. Khris Middleton (ankle) also remains sidelined, and in the three starts Lillard has made without Antetokounmpo and Middleton the past two seasons, Lillard is leading the Bucks with 50.3 DraftKings PPG and a mammoth 37.3% usage rate, which is a 9.0 percentage life from his average.
The Jazz rank dead last in defensive efficiency, and despite Antetokounmpo being questionable, the Bucks carry the highest implied team total on the slate (119.75 points). Again, Lillard has merit in this spot if Antetokounmpo is active, but if the latter is inactive, Lillard will be an obvious choice.
Top Value: Donte DiVincenzo at Chicago Bulls – $4,900
DiVincenzo lit the Hornets up for a season-high 32.3 DraftKings points across 28 minutes on Monday, and the ex-Knick is in a great spot to continue thriving Thursday vs. the Bulls. Chicago leads the league in pace, and they are playing their second game in two nights.
The Timberwolves’ implied team total ranks second on the slate (118.25 points), and as Minnesota’s sixth man this season, DiVincenzo has handled a 19.8% usage rate, and he has topped 20 DraftKings points in five of his six games. While priced correctly, DiVincenzo is one of the best guards available for this three-game slate.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Anthony Edwards at Chicago Bulls – $9,500
Edwards’ ceiling in the ShotQuaility projections is easily the highest among shooting guards tonight, and this matchup with the Bulls is a perfect spot for him, with Chicago leading the league in pace. Edwards is handling a 31.8% usage rate this season and he has found a new love for the outside shot, ranking third in the NBA in three point attempts (11.4), while knocking them down at a career-high 45%.
This matchup with the Bulls carries a total of 227.5 points, and when Edwards has competed in a total of 225 points or higher the last two seasons, he is generating 47 DraftKings PPG (20 games), which is right at what he needs to score tonight to reach five-times value.
Top Value: Stephon Castle vs. Portland Trail Blazers – $4,400
With Jeremy Sochan (thumb) sidelined, Castle should continue to start for the Spurs. With this starting job last night, the 20-year-old posted only 14 DraftKings points across 25 minutes vs. the Rockets, but this game was a 27-point blowout for Houston, which ultimately hurt Castle’s minutes. The rookie led San Antonio with 16.8 minutes in the first half, which is an encouraging sign that he would have exceeded 30 minutes if the contest was competitive.
The Spurs are only four-point favorites over the Trail Blazers tonight, and if this game stays tight like the spread is suggesting, Castle should see high volume, giving him a chance to beat this salary. Castle is scoring 0.7 DraftKings PPM this season and while he is not an exciting option, his starting job makes him one of the best cheap values this short slate has to offer.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.
NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Zach LaVine vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – $7,100
Small forward is very thin for this short slate, and there are only two players available who are priced over $7K. LaVine (adductor) is one of them, and if he makes his return from a two-game absence – the Bulls have yet to release their injury report as of Thursday morning – he will be an interesting GPP play, as most DFS players will likely avoid him coming off the injury.
LaVine is leading the Bulls with a 25% usage rate this season, and he has scored at least 36 DraftKings points in four of his six starts, including two efforts north of 40 DraftKings points. Also, this is a revenge situation for LaVine, with the Timberwolves being his original team, and he has gone off for over 50 DraftKings points in two of his past four meetings with the club.
Top Value: Jaden McDaniels at Chicago Bulls – $4,300
Playing the fastest team in the NBA in the Bulls, McDaniels makes sense for this short slate. The forward is amassing 19.4 DraftKings PPG in his last five, and he is averaging 1.7 defensive statistics per game, giving him solid upside.
As noted above, the Timberwolves present an implied team total of 118.25 points tonight, and McDaniels has topped 20 DraftKings points in four of the last five games he has played behind an implied team total of 118 points or greater, via the Trends Tool.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Bobby Portis vs. Utah Jazz – $6,800
If Antetokounmpo sits again, Portis will be unlocked and be the best value on the board. With Antetokounmpo inactive Monday, Portis started and erupted for 52 DraftKings points across 38 minutes in a tough matchup vs. the Cavaliers, who rank seventh in defensive efficiency.
Portis is supplying 42 DraftKings PPG with Antetokounmpo inactive the last two seasons (10 games) and clearly underpriced if he is starting again.
Top Value: Keldon Johnson vs. Portland Trail Blazers – $5,800
Johnson is a GPP play only, but an interesting gamble for that format. With a 2.3 percentage point increase to his usage, Johnson is averaging 1.0 DraftKings PPM with Sochan off the floor the last two seasons, and Johnson should see more work off the bench tonight with Sochan unavailable.
Plus, the Spurs will be at home, which is always a big boost for Johnson, who is producing 4.8 more DraftKings PPG at home than when on the road over the last two seasons. Johnson popped off for 40.5 DraftKings points vs. the Timberwolves in the Spurs’ last home game, and he shouldn’t come with much ownership as a bench player.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Nikola Vucevic vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – $8,500
Vucevic has continued to be a steady contributor this season, scoring 43.9 DraftKings points in 32.1 minutes per game, and the center boasts an impressive resume against the Timberwolves. In Vucevic’s last four matchups with Minnesota, he is providing 46 DraftKings PPG.
Vucevic is a viable spend no matter what, but if LaVine is out again, Vucevic would instantly become one of the better options available Thursday. In the 67 minutes the center has played with LaVine off the court this season, Vucevic has scored a team-high 1.6 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool.
Top Value: Walker Kessler at Milwaukee Bucks – $6,100
Kessler has flashed great upside this season, with three performances over 40 DraftKings in his first seven games. While his playing was inconsistent last season, Kessler has seen a more stable role as the Jazz’ starting center this season, with 27.7 minutes per game, which is a notable increase from his 23.3 average a year ago.
Facing the Bucks’ big frontcourt, Kessler will be needed for big minutes tonight, and Milwaukee has been a mess defensively, ranking 25th in efficiency. The center posted 33 DraftKings points the last time he faced the Bucks. He is a strong, reasonably priced way to gain another share of this slate-high total between Utah and Milwaukee (229 points).
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE
NBA DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (Monday, June 13): Expect Chef Curry to Keep Cookin’
NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Friday, May 5): Can the Suns’ Stars Step up?
NBA DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (Monday, May 29): Can Caleb Martin Sustain Recent Production?
NBA DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (Wednesday, Jun. 7): Will Michael Porter Jr. Bounce Back?
