Thursday presents a four-game slate on DraftKings. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Cade Cunningham at Charlotte Hornets – $9,700
Cunningham has been excellent, scoring over 50 DraftKings points in seven of his last nine starts, including a 71.25-DraftKings-point performance vs. the Bucks. The guard is leading the Pistons with a 30.4% usage rate and a 39.7% assist percentage this season, resulting in 1.4 DraftKings PPM. The Hornets rank 19th in defensive efficiency, and this game carries the smallest spread of this slate, with Detroit only favored by 1.5 points.
Cunningham has been awesome with 54.1 DraftKings PPG when competing as a favorite this season (four games) – via the Trends Tool – and is one of the best spends on the board Thursday.
Top Value: Chris Paul vs. Utah Jazz – $6,300
In Tuesday’s upset over the Thunder, Chris Paul exposed Oklahoma City’s league-best defense for a double-double worth 38.25 DraftKings points across 31.2 minutes. Victor Wembanyama (knee) and Jeremy Sochan (thumb) both missed this game and will remain sidelined, leaving Paul in an expanded role. With Wembanyama and Sochan off the court this season, Paul’s usage and assist rates have increased 3.1 and 10.2 percentage points, respectively, lifting the veteran to 1.1 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool.
Now, after facing the Thunder and their No. 1 defense, Paul is going against the Jazz on Thursday, who are the polar opposite and rank dead last in defensive efficiency. San Antonio carries the second-highest total on the slate despite missing Wembanyama (114.5 points) and Paul is vastly underpriced for his ceiling in this spot, which is over 40 DraftKings points in our ShotQuality projections.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Brandon Miller vs. Detroit Pistons – $6,900
Miles Bridges (questionable, knee) was a late addition to the Hornets’ injury report today, which certainly doesn’t bode well for his chances of playing tonight. In the likely event that the forward sits, Brandon Miller will be a terrific option at this price tag. In the three games Bridges has missed this season, Miller is amassing 38.8 DraftKings PPG.
The tight 1.5-point spread for this contest should translate into heavy playing time for Miller, and he will be a no-brainer if Bridges is inactive.
Top Value: Stephon Castle vs. Utah Jazz – $4,900
In addition to Wembanyama and Sochan being sidelined, Devin Vassell (knee) will miss his third straight game on Thursday. Without these three starters Tuesday, Julian Champagnie logged a team-high 34.4 minutes, and he finished with 24.75 DraftKings points vs. the Thunder.
With those three players off the court this season, Champagnie is scoring 0.94 DraftKings PPM with a 22.7% usage rate. The wing should start and see 30-35 minutes tonight, and in this dream matchup vs. the Jazz and their league-worst defense, Champagnie should exceed 5x value with ease.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Franz Wagner at Los Angeles Lakers – $9,100
This is a great time to buy low on Franz Wagner. After being a chalky option last night and disappointing with 37 DraftKings points vs. the Clippers, the wing may get slightly overlooked tonight. The Clippers rank sixth in defensive efficiency, and facing the Lakers is a much more appealing matchup, with the club ranking 22nd in the category.
Paolo Banchero (oblique) remains out for the Magic, and with the forward inactive this season, Wagner is leading Orlando with 44.5 DraftKings PPG (11 games). The 23-year-old had topped 50 DraftKings points in three of his previous four starts before Wednesday, and Wagner brings a top-five ceiling on the slate in our ShotQuality projections.
Top Value: Keldon Johnson vs. Utah Jazz – $5,400
Keldon Johnson is another terrific value from the depleted Spurs. The veteran is averaging 31.3 DraftKings PPG in the two contests San Antonio has been without Victor Wembanyama, Jeremy Sochan, and Devin Vassell this season, and with those three players off the court this year, Johnson is generating 1.1 DraftKings PPM with a 22% usage rate.
As noted above, the Jazz rank dead last in defensive efficiency and, as the icing on the cake, the Spurs will be at home tonight, which is crucial for Johnson. Over the last two seasons, he has provided a notable 4.3 more DraftKings PPG at home than when on the road. Furthermore, Johnson has exceeded 30 DraftKings points four times this season, all of which have come on his home floor, including a 34.5 DraftKings point outing vs. the same Utah team he will face tonight.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Julius Randle at Toronto Raptors – $8,300
The Timberwolves carry the highest implied team total on the slate (117.5 points), and Randle is a compelling, contrarian way to gain a share of the club – our ownership projections are slating him for single-digit ownership on DraftKings. Randle is on the heels of a 53.5 DraftKings point showing vs. the Suns, and he is amassing 1.1 DraftKings PPM with the second-highest usage rate for Minnesota this season (26.7%).
The Raptors rank sixth in pace and 24th in defensive efficiency this season, and Randle has the potential for over 50 DraftKings points in this favorable matchup.
Top Value: Grant Williams vs. Detroit Pistons – $5,000
Grant Williams is an obvious choice for all formats tonight. Since joining the Hornets’ starting lineup four games ago, Williams has produced 28.8 DraftKings points in 32.3 minutes per game. This playing time average ranks third for Charlotte during this time, and this type of volume simply isn’t reflected in Williams’ current salary.
The forward is amassing 0.84 DraftKings PPM this season, and Williams posted 29.25 DraftKings points vs. this same Pistons team earlier this month despite coming off the bench in that game.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Anthony Davis vs. Orlando Magic – $11,100
Leading the Lakers with a 32.3% usage rate – which is the largest rate Anthony Davis has seen since 2017 – the big man has been tremendous this season, scoring 55.8 DraftKings PPG. Davis is shooting a career-best 41% on three-pointers, and while this Magic defense he is facing ranks second in efficiency, they are playing their second game in two nights. Plus, the Lakers will be at home and are favored by five points.
When competing at home and as a favorite over the last two seasons, Davis has supplied 53.3 DraftKings PPG (23 games), via the Trends Tool. No player brings better upside than Davis on Thursday, and he is a worthy spend for all formats.
Top Value: Charles Bassey vs. Utah Jazz – $4,000
Charles Bassey operates as the Spurs’ backup center with Victor Wembanyama sidelined and is a great bargain with this role. With Wembanyama inactive for the last two games, Bassey has collected 22.8 DraftKings points in 21.3 minutes per game off the bench.
The big man is averaging 1.2 DraftKings PPM this season, and going against the worst defense in the league in the Jazz, Bassey should record over 20 DraftKings points.
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