The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: De’Aaron Fox vs. San Antonio Spurs – $9,000 DraftKings, $9,600 FanDuel
Fox and the Kings have the highest Implied Team Total on our Vegas Dashboard as they host the Spurs. Sacramento hung 153 points on the Nets on Tuesday and has scored at least 120 points in each of its last four games, all of which have been wins. In fact, they’ve won seven of their last nine and rank second in the NBA in Points Per Game. These aren’t the same old Kings, and Fox’s strong start to the season has been a big part of the team’s progress under new coach Mike Brown.
In this matchup with the Spurs, Fox brings the highest ceiling projection of any point guard on the slate and the third-highest ceiling projection of any player on the three-game slate. His 29.6% projected usage rate is the fourth-highest of all players on the slate, and his 82 touches per game tie him with Damien Lillard for the top mark. However, Fox’s ceiling projection is higher than Lillard’s, partially due to the game environment. Since both the Kings and Spurs rank in the top 10 in the NBA in Pace, look for plenty of points from this matchup and Fox to continue to be central for Sacramento.
Fox only had to play 24 minutes in the Kings’ easy win on Tuesday but posted over 39 DraftKings points in four of his previous five contests. During that run, he averaged 26.8 points, 7.4 assists, 4.0 rebounds, and 1.8 steals in 35 minutes per game. His production rate of 1.4 DraftKings points per minute is the highest of all point guards in play on Thursday.
Top Value: Tre Jones at Sacramento Kings – $6,100 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel
Jones leads all point guards in Projected Plus/Minus on this slate on FanDuel and ranks third on DraftKings, where Josh Richardson and Terance Mann are both eligible at point guard. Jones’ salary has stayed low since he missed a game on Monday due to illness and played Tuesday, although he seemed to be less than 100%, shooting just 1-for-6 from the field and scoring just two points to go with his 10 assists.
Hopefully, Jones is back to 100% for this contest in what should be a good fantasy matchup on both sides. Before getting sick, Jones had three strong games, averaging 13.3 points, 9.7 assists, and 4.0 rebounds for 36.8 DraftKings points in 33.4 minutes per game. He exceeded both projections and salary expectations in each of those three contests and should be set to return to great value if he’s back to 100% in this road game against the Kings.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Devin Vassell at Sacramento Kings – $7,000 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel
Vassell has the second-highest projected ceiling at shooting guard on both DraftKings and FanDuel, behind only Paul George, who is questionable due to a left-hand contusion. Vassell has taken a leap this season for the Spurs, as he has stepped into a more prominent role to help compensate for the departure of Dejounte Murray to Atlanta.
In his seven games since returning from injury, Vassell has produced 19.6 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 2.7 assists in his 30.7 minutes per game, with over 30 DraftKings points in six of those seven contests. On the season, he has the second-highest usage rate on the team at 23.8% and has produced just over 1.0 DraftKings points per minute.
Vassell’s projection outpaces his salary, and on FanDuel, where he’s cheaper, he brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position and the second-highest on the entire slate.
Top Value: Terance Mann vs. Detroit Pistons – $3,800 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel
Mann’s potential usage is very dependent on the status of George, but even if PG can play, Mann has been productive enough to be worth a look at this minimal salary. With George in the projections, Mann still brings the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard on DraftKings and the third-highest on FanDuel.
He’s been a volatile value play since his minutes and usage fluctuate from game to game, but there should be work for him with Luke Kennard (calf) doubtful and Kawhi Leonard (knee) still sidelined. Mann showed his upside with 14 points and 24.5 DraftKings points on Monday but also showed his volatility with just one shot attempt, two points, and 7.25 DraftKings points on Tuesday in the second game of the Clippers’ back-to-back.
Mann can stuff the stat sheet when called upon and posted 28.1 and 33.3 FanDuel points in two starts earlier this month. Keep a close eye on George’s status and how the Clippers plan to compensate for Kennard’s expected absence. If there are minutes for Mann, he should end up being a great value.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Keldon Johnson at Sacramento Kings – $7,400 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel
Johnson has the second-highest ceiling projection on DraftKings behind only George and the third-highest on FanDuel behind George and Kevin Durant. He leads the Spurs in usage this season and has produced 1.13 DraftKings points per minute while filling in wherever needed. He has put up at least 30 DraftKings points in 13 of his 14 games this season, averaging 36.9 DraftKings points and 34.4 FanDuel per contest on 22.7 points, 4.9 rebounds, 3.6 assists, and 1.0 steals per game.
In each of his past 10 games, Johnson has made multiple 3-pointers and has come close to a double-double in several of those contests. He hasn’t quite reached the 50-fantasy-point plateau in any game this season, but he has come close several times. He brings nice potential to this favorable game environment Thursday at his reasonable salary.
At small forward, Johnson has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings and the fourth-highest on FanDuel. Like his teammate Vassell, Johnson brings good value in addition to his high ceiling in the upper-midrange salary window.
Top Value: Joe Harris at Portland Trail Blazers – $4,600 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel
Given his growing role with the Nets, Harris is still surprisingly cheap, especially on FanDuel. As a result of his sub-$4K salary, he brings the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at small forward and the fourth-highest on DraftKings.
Harris has started the past nine games for Brooklyn, averaging almost eight shots per game in his 28 minutes. He made multiple 3-point shots in six of seven games coming into Tuesday’s contest, when he and the rest of the Nets struggled and got embarrassed on the road in Sacramento. He only played 20 minutes in that game after playing over 30 minutes in each of his five previous games and producing an average of 19.8 DraftKings points per game.
The veteran long-range specialist has the potential to go off if he can find his rhythm, and his regular involvement should give him a solid floor as long as the Nets keep this game more competitive.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Kevin Durant at Portland Trail Blazers – $11,600 DraftKings, $11,500 FanDuel
Durant has the highest ceiling projection of any player on Thursday’s slate by over a five-point margin on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He’s an expensive option to build around, but if you’re looking at pure ceiling, no one can match him. He’s projected for the second-highest usage behind only George and has produced a slate-leading 1.41 DraftKings points and 1.4 FanDuel points per minute.
In every one of his 15 games this season, Durant has scored over 25 points and produced at least 42 DraftKings points. He had his best game of the season with a triple-double against the Knicks in which he finished with 29 points, 12 assists, and 12 rebounds for 72.5 DraftKings points and 69.4 FanDuel points. He has similar ceiling potential in this matchup with the Trail Blazers if he comes out fired up after a 32-point loss to the Kings on Tuesday.
Top Value: Marcus Morris Sr. vs. Detroit Pistons – $6,300 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel
Morris brings the top Projected Plus/Minus at power forward on FanDuel and the fifth-highest on DraftKings. That’s with George projected to take a slate-high usage rate. If George is out, Morris will have even more work available against the Pistons, who he played with for two seasons.
The veteran has averaged over 31 minutes per game for the Clippers this season and has produced 28.6 DraftKings points and 27.9 FanDuel points on 15.0 points and 5.7 rebounds per game. He has had to carry more of the offense with Kawhi out and has averaged 12 shot attempts per contest over his past eight games while pouring in 15.9 points to go with 6.1 rebounds per game.
Especially on FanDuel, he’s almost a must-play if George is out. Even if George plays, Morris probably will get plenty of work to return top value at power forward, so don’t look past the 33-year-old in a possible revenge spot against the injury-depleted Detroit frontcourt.
Center
Top Ceiling: Domantas Sabonis vs. San Antonio Spurs – $9,400 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel
Of all the centers on this six-team slate, Sabonis brings by far the highest ceiling projection with over a 10 fantasy point margin between him and the rest of the options. Sabonis has been a massive part of Sacramento’s success along with Fox, and the two stars make a great mini-stack to consider against the Spurs.
Sabonis outperformed his projections and salary expectations in four of five games before only having to play 28 minutes in Tuesday’s laugher over Brooklyn. In his five previous games, he averaged 22.4 points,12.4 rebounds, and 6.4 assists in 34.4 minutes per contest. He had a 26-point, 22-rebound game against the Warriors on Sunday, posting a season-high 66.5 DraftKings points and 61.4 FanDuel points.
He has the third-highest ceiling projection on the slate, trailing only Durant and George. He comes significantly cheaper than Durant, though, so his relative value makes him my favorite ceiling play to build around.
Top Value: Ivica Zubac vs. Detroit Pistons – $6,400 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
As clear as it is that Sabonis is the top ceiling play at center, Zubac is clearly the best value play according to Projected Plus/Minus. He brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate on FanDuel while coming in second on DraftKings.
Zubac is off to a great start this season with the Clippers. He’s averaging a career-high 30.5 minutes per game and has produced what would also be a career-high 31.15 DraftKings points per contest on 10.0 points, 10.6 rebounds, and 2.1 blocks per game.
He’s coming off a couple of down games against the Mavericks and Rockets, but he should dominate the Pistons, who will still be without normal starting center Isaiah Stewart (toe). While it does ruin the nice “Big Zu vs. Beef Stew” matchup on the marquee, it also means the Pistons won’t have much of an answer for Zubac on the blocks, so look for another big game from the Clippers’ big man.
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