Thursday night presents a six-game slate. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Trae Young vs. Indiana Pacers – $9,800
Young exposed the Bucks for 53 DraftKings points in his last start, and he has huge upside in this elite spot vs. the Pacers. Both Atlanta and Indiana are top-10 teams in pace this season, and this game presents a total of 246.5 points, which is the highest on the slate by a significant 16.5 points. Young erupted for 68.75 DraftKings points when he faced the Pacers last month, and he is a great GPP target that may get slightly overlooked with many big-name point guards in action.
With a 29.5% usage rate and a league-high 44.5% assist percentage, Young is amassing 1.3 DraftKings PPM this season. Plus, in totals of 240 points or more, he is exceeding 50 DraftKings points at a 60% clip.
Top Value: Brandin Podziemski at Brooklyn Nets – $5,800
Podziemski has benefited from playing alongside Jimmy Butler in Golden State. In his last two games, Podziemski has scored 42.75 DraftKings points vs. the Hornets and 32.75 DraftKings points vs. the Knicks, while logging over 30 minutes in both of these tilts.
The wing is producing 1.1 DraftKings PPM with a 20% usage rate since Butler joined the Warriors last month and Thursday delivers a strong matchup vs. the Nets, who rank 23rd in defensive rating over their last five games. Podziemski should surpass five-times value in this spot and is a viable mid-tier option for all formats.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
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NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Jalen Green at New Orleans Pelicans – $7,200
This is a great time to buy low on Green. The shooting guard should be lowered coming off four straight efforts under 40 DraftKings points, and this is a perfect spot for him to bounce back. The Pelicans rank second-to-last in defensive efficiency, and Green is averaging 45.5 DraftKings points against New Orleans in two matchups this season.
The Rockets carry the third-highest implied team total on the slate (117.75 points) and Fred VanVleet (ankle) remains out. Green’s usage rises 1.1 percentage points to 28.9% with VanVleet off the floor this season – via the On/Off Tool – and Green is too cheap for his upside.
Top Value: Dyson Daniels vs. Indiana Pacers – $6,800
Daniels continues to be underpriced for his role with the Hawks and is a compelling way to attack this slate-high total between Atlanta and Indiana. The Defensive Player of the Year candidate is scoring 37.7 DraftKings points in 34.6 minutes per game since the Hawks made major moves at the trade deadline last month (11 games), and Daniels finished with 37.5 DraftKings points in his lone matchup with the Pacers this season.
Daniels is averaging a league-high 3.0 steals per game this season and in this fast paced setting, he should rack up many stocks and has a ceiling over 40 DraftKings points.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: LeBron James vs. New York Knicks – $10,500
James continues to put up superstar numbers despite being 40-years-old. James posted 59.5 DraftKings points vs. the Pelicans in his last start, and he has topped 50 DraftKings points in six of his past eight starts. Playing alongside Luka Doncic clearly hasn’t slowed down James, and the veteran has a huge ceiling against the Knicks.
New York ranks 26th in defensive rating over their last 10 games, and James always looks forward to this matchup. The future Hall of Famer has notably exceeded 60 DraftKings points in four of his last five meetings with the Knicks, including a 68.25 DraftKings point outing just last month.
Top Value: Caris LeVert vs. Indiana Pacers – $5,300
LeVert is flourishing as the Hawks’ sixth man and is one of the best values available Thursday. In his last three games, LeVert has finished with 35.25, 44.75, and 33.75 DraftKings points, while handling a 24.4% usage rate and logging 29.4 minutes per game.
LeVert is producing 1.1 DraftKings PPM with the Hawks, and as noted above, this matchup with the Pacers easily presents the highest total on the slate (246.5 points). LeVert is a strong bet to surpass 30 DraftKings points in this setting and can be rostered with full confidence.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Paolo Banchero vs. Chicago Bulls – $8,900
As he attempts to keep the Magic alive for a playoff spot, Banchero has had some huge performances recently. The forward is on the heels of a 73.5 DraftKings point showing vs. the Raptors, and in his third-to-last start, Banchero went off for 59.5 DraftKings points in a tough spot against the surging Warriors. As losers of four in a row, tonight is a must-win for Orlando, and luckily, this is a mouthwatering matchup vs. the Bulls, who rank third in pace, 26th in defensive efficiency, and have lost eight of their last 10 games.
Banchero should put the team on his back tonight and has a top-five ceiling on the slate in our ShotQuality projections.
Top Value: Guerschon Yabusele at Boston Celtics – $5,100
Yabusele is underpriced for his expected workload tonight. Joel Embiid (knee) and Tyrese Maxey (back) are both out, and Yabusele is amassing 26.5 DraftKings points in 28.8 minutes per game with a 17% usage rate with those two starters inactive (six games). Paul George (groin) is also questionable, and if he sits, which is certainly possible with the 76ers looking to drop down the standings, Yabusele’s role will grow even further.
Nonetheless, Yabusele should outproduce this cheap salary against the Celtics, who are playing their second game in two nights and are the club that drafted Yabusele.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Alperen Sengun at New Orleans Pelicans – $9,400
Sengun has been excellent with 45.8 DraftKings PPG in his last five, and this is the best matchup he could ask for. This Pelicans team, which ranks 29th in defensive efficiency, is giving up the second-most points in the paint and the third-most rebounds in the league this season. Sengun posted 46.75 DraftKings points against New Orleans earlier this season, and tonight’s matchup presents the second-highest total on the slate (230.5 points).
In totals of 230 points or greater this season, Sengun is generating 55.6 DraftKings PPG (eight games), via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Myles Turner at Atlanta Hawks – $6,300
Turner has been terrific since the All-Star break, supplying 37.8 DraftKings PPG. During this stretch, the big man has been very active from outside, knocking down 3.6 three-pointers on 8.0 attempts per game (44.6%). Atlanta is giving up the fifth-most made three-pointers this season, and the Pacers’ implied team total is the largest on the board (125.25 points).
Turner is scoring 40.9 DraftKings PPG when playing behind an implied team total of at least 120 points this season (eight games), and the center is a strong combination of safety and upside.
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