The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Trae Young vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – $10,900 DraftKings, $9,900 FanDuel
The Cavaliers have slipped into the abyss defensively, ranking 23rd in efficiency on that end since the All-Star break. They’re going to have a tough time against Young on Thursday night while dealing with some injuries to quality defenders. Young owns the highest ceiling of any point guard in our NBA Models at around 70 fantasy points.
Top Value: Alex Caruso vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $5,000 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel
Caruso has been starting over the last six games, and in those contests, he’s averaged 31.1 minutes. That’s an excellent step up from the 28.2 he’s seen for the season. His salary has come up a bit, but given the extra run and the fact that the Clippers have been so-so defensively in the second half, our model still has Caruso set as a 5X player on Thursday.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: James Harden vs. Detroit Pistons – $10,200 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel
Harden has cleared the 50 and 60-fantasy point barriers over the last three games, and he’s hasn’t dipped lower than 48 in two meetings with Detroit this year. With a solid projection of 37 minutes, our model expects Harden’s ceiling to be somewhere close to 70 fantasy points on this short slate.
Top Value: Ayo Dosunmu vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $4,100 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel
Dosunmu hasn’t exactly lit the fantasy world on fire in the past couple of weeks, but his price is now low enough where there’s plenty of value in taking a shot on him. Given the minutes he’s been seeing — and the 30 he’s projected for on Thursday — our model has him set as one of the best value plays at shooting guard on FanDuel and point guard on DraftKings.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Brooklyn Nets – $11,800 DraftKings, $11,900 FanDuel
There is a reason that rostering Antetokounmpo will hurt your pockets. It’s because he’s got the most potential on the slate and it’s not particularly close. The Greek will be up against a Nets team ranked 16th in rebounding rate since the break and even lower in defense, and our model sets his ceiling over 80 fantasy points.
Top Value: Luke Kennard vs. Chicago Bulls – $3,800 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel
Kennard’s projections are different based on the scoring on both sites, and on DraftKings, he’ll provide a bit more bang for your buck. With that being said, he’s a top value option at this price, expected by our model to hit 5X with comfort. He’s fresh off 24 fantasy points against the Jazz and has seen plenty of minutes lately.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Kevin Durant vs. Milwaukee Bucks – $11,400 DraftKings, $11,900 FanDuel
I noted above that the Nets have been pretty bad on the defensive end in the second half of the season, but we also need to highlight the Bucks, who have ranked 17th on that front during that time. Durant has 70-point potential on this slate according to our projections, and should he hit that mark, he’d do it for a second consecutive game.
Top Value: Kelly Olynyk vs. Philadelphia 76ers – $3,500 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel
We project Olynyk for around 20 minutes here, which should be more than enough to return value. That’s particularly true on DraftKings, where Olynyk is dirt cheap, but with 25 or more fantasy points in two straight, he should be able to bring home plenty of value on both sites.
Center
Top Ceiling: Joel Embiid vs. Detroit Pistons – $11,500 DraftKings, $11,500 FanDuel
The Detroit Pistons have played some good basketball in the second half of the season. That’s been true on the defensive end in particular, where they’ve ranked 11th. Despite that number, they’ve been vulnerable inside, where they have allowed 45.4% shooting in the paint to rank ninth-worst. Embiid should be able to do some damage on the interior, and we’ve given the MVP hopeful a 15% chance to surpass 75 or so fantasy points.
Top Value: Moses Brown vs. Atlanta Hawks – $3,200 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel
There aren’t a ton of value centers to choose from on this slate, so everyone will probably land on Brown if they are looking to save money. That’s with good reason, as Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley remain out for Cleveland. Brown hit the 20-point mark last time out against Dallas in 21 minutes and should be afforded as much time.
