DraftKings’ main slate for Thursday includes the first six games of the night. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Tyrese Haliburton at Washington Wizards – $8,700
Haliburton’s impressive play continued last night with a 50.5 DraftKings point double-double vs. the Lakers. The guard is now amassing 54 DraftKings PPG in his last four starts, and he has tallied a double-double in all these games. Haliburton is producing 1.5 DraftKings PPM since the All-Star Break and another outing over 50 DraftKings points is on the table for him tonight against the Wizards, who rank 28th in defensive rating this season and are playing their second game in two nights.
The Pacers carry the third-highest implied team total on the slate (123.5 points), and Haliburton is scoring 44 DraftKings PPG when playing behind an implied team total of at least 120 points this season (13 games), via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Anthony Black vs. Dallas Mavericks – $4,000
Black is a great punt play with the Magic shorthanded on guards, with Jalen Suggs (knee) out and Cole Anthony (toe) doubtful. With these two inactive for the last four, Black has operated as Orlando’s main point guard despite coming off the bench, scoring 29.8 DraftKings points in 26.9 minutes per game.
Black supplies 0.9 DraftKings PPM with a 20% usage rate with Suggs and Anthony off the floor this season, and in this prime spot vs. the Mavericks, Black should easily surpass 5x value. Since the All-Star break, Dallas ranks 26th in defensive rating.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
a
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Donovan Mitchell vs. San Antonio Spurs – $8,800
Mitchell will return tonight after being rested Wednesday, while Evan Mobley will now be rested. The Spurs are also in town, who rank second-to-last in defensive rating since the All-Star break. The Cavaliers present the highest implied team total on the slate (126.5 points), and Mitchell is an awesome, expensive target in this situation.
In the eight starts Mitchell has made without Mobley this season, Mitchell is leading Cleveland with 47.8 DraftKings PPG and a 34.5% usage rate, which is a 2.8 percentage point lift from his season average, via the On/Off Tool.
Top Value: Max Strus vs. San Antonio Spurs – $4,500
Strus also has a ton of merit from the Mobley-less Cavaliers in this elite spot vs. the Spurs. Strus is scoring 21 DraftKings PPG with Mobley inactive this season (six games), and with the big man off the floor, Strus is providing 0.9 DraftKings PPM.
San Antonio ranks seventh in pace since the All-Star Break, and Strus is a strong, cheap way to gain share of the Cavaliers tonight. In his last 12 games, Strus has topped 20 DraftKings points nine times.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code FL55.
NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Coby White vs. Los Angeles Lakers – $8,300
Since the All-Star break, White has been terrific, scoring 41 DraftKings PPG (15 games) while leading the Bulls with a 28% usage rate. Tonight, the guard is in a great spot vs. the Lakers, who rank second in pace since the All-Star break and are playing their second game in two nights after a hard-fought win vs. the Pacers on Wednesday.
In this spot, White is a compelling spend that would see a significant boost to his stock if either Josh Giddey (questionable, arm) or Nikola Vucevic (questionable, back) sit.
Top Value: Andrew Wiggins vs. Atlanta Hawks – $6,600
The Heat have been using a tight rotation as they chase the Bulls for the No. 9 seed in the Eastern Conference, and Wiggins has been stepping up for Miami with every game important, scoring 42.7 DraftKings PPG in his last five starts.
The forward is leading the Heat with a 29.4% usage rate during this stretch, and this is an appealing matchup with Atlanta ranking 21st in defensive rating since the All-Star Break. Wiggins is too cheap for his recent form and production, and the veteran has the potential for over 40 DraftKings points tonight.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Paolo Banchero vs. Dallas Mavericks – $9,900
Every game is important for the Magic right now, as they are only a half game behind the Hawks for the No. No.7 seed in the Eastern Conference. With Orlando treating every contest like a must-win, Banchero has been a beast, scoring 53.5 DraftKings PPG in his last seven starts. During this span, the Duke product is shooting 49% from the field and leading the Magic with a 33.4% usage rate.
Going against this Dallas team that has been a mess defensively as of late, Banchero is one of the best spends on the slate at this sub-$10,000 salary.
Top Value: Keldon Johnson at San Antonio Spurs – $4,700
Power forward lacks appealing cheap options tonight, and Johnson is the best inexpensive player to consider at the position. Victor Wembanyama (shoulder) and De’Aaron Fox (finger) are both out for the season, and with these two players inactive this season, Johnson is amassing 27.9 DraftKings points in 24 minutes per game off the bench with a 23% usage rate (eight games).
Facing the Cavaliers on the road isn’t ideal—Cleveland ranks eighth in defensive rating this season – but Johnson still has a strong chance to exceed 5x value at this low price tag. In our ShotQuality projections, Johnson is the No. 1 power forward value on the slate.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Onyeka Okongwu at Miami Heat – $7,400
Okongwu has been playing great basketball for the Hawks, scoring 43.9 DraftKings PPG in his last six. The center has notched a double-double in five of these games, and despite going head-to-head with Bam Adebayo, Okongwu has been solid against the Heat this season, averaging 34.9 DraftKings PPG in two matchups.
Tonight’s meeting between the Hawks and Heat is crucial for both clubs as they look to improve their seed before the Play-In Tournament, and this game presents the smallest spread of the slate, with Miami only favored by 1.5 points. Okongwu is supplying 40 DraftKings PPG in spreads under five points since the All-Star break (seven games), and the big man is a great GPP target tonight that could get slept on in this matchup with the Heat.
Top Value: Jarrett Allen vs. San Antonio Spurs – $6,800
Allen is an elite option with Mobley unavailable. In the eight starts Allen has made without Mobley this season, Allen is scoring 39 DraftKings PPG. When not sharing the floor with Mobley this season, Allen has thrived as the Cavaliers’ main big man, producing 1.3 DraftKings PPM, which is attributed to all his rates increasing. Notably, Allen’s usage and rebound rates both increase over 2.0 percentage points with Mobley off the court.
The Cavaliers carry the highest implied team total on the slate, hosting the Spurs (126.5 points), and San Antonio’s soft defense is giving up the third-most points in the paint since the All-Star break, which is great news for a natural center like Allen. The big man has been nearly 3.0 DraftKings PPG better on his home floor than when on the road this season, and Allen should have no problems outproducing his sub $7,000 salary tonight.
