Thursday presents a five-game slate. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic vs. Milwaukee Bucks – $12,700
Assuming Doncic isn’t rested tonight, which feels unlikely with the Lakers in pursuit of the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference, he will bring the highest ceiling on the slate by a solid gap. LeBron James (groin) remains out, and Doncic is producing 63.3 DraftKings PPG with James sidelined for the last five. With James off the court, all of Doncic’s rates increase, most notably a 5.6 percentage point increase to his usage rate, and he supplies 1.8 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool.
The Bucks are always a prime matchup for point guards with Damian Lillard in the lineup, and over 70 DraftKings points is possible for Doncic in this spot. The Bucks are always a prime matchup for point guards with Damian Lillard in the lineup, and over 70 DraftKings points is possible for Doncic in this spot.
UPDATE: Doncic (ankle) has been ruled out and with the guard sidelined, Austin Reaves ($9,100) becomes a must-play. The guard has made two starts without Doncic and James since the Lakers acquired Doncic last month and Reaves was brilliant in those tilts, scoring 73.1 DraftKings PPG with a 35.9% usage rate.
UPDATE #2: Reaves (ankle) has also been ruled out, leaving the Lakers extremely thin. In this situation, Jordan Goodwin (below) is a must-play and Dalton Knecht ($5,600) and Gabe Vincent ($4,300) also are standing out as great value plays.
Top Value: D’Angelo Russell at Indiana Pacers – $5,800
With Cam Thomas (hamstring) and Cameron Johnson (rest) sidelined tonight, Russell will be the Nets’ featured player. Since being traded to Brooklyn earlier this season, Russell has played six games with both Thomas and Johnson inactive, and Russell is averaging 33.3 DraftKings PPG on those occasions.
With both Thomas and Johnson off the court, Russell is generating 1.4 DraftKings PPM, which is mostly attributed to his assist rate increasing 4.2 percentage points to a huge 40.9%. Facing a Pacers team that ranks seventh in pace and is playing their second game in two nights, Russell is a top-five value on the slate.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
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NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Malik Monk vs. Chicago Bulls – $7,800
With Domantas Sabonis (ankle) and Zach LaVine (personal) out last night vs. the Cavaliers, Monk was massive in the Kings’ upset over Cleveland. In 39.3 minutes, the Kentucky product posted 48 DraftKings points. Assuming both Sabonis and LaVine remain unavailable tonight, Monk will be an excellent target at this sub-$8,000 salary.
The Kings carry the highest implied team total on the slate, hosting the Bulls (120 points), who rank third in pace and 24th in defensive efficiency, and Monk is handling a 27% usage rate with both Sabonis and LaVine off the floor since the Kings traded De’Aaron Fox in February.
Top Value: Jordan Goodwin vs. Milwaukee Bucks – $4,600
Goodwin has started the last four games for the Lakers with James and Rui Hachimura (out, knee) sidelined, and Goodwin has been productive with the role, scoring at least 23 DraftKings points in three of these four tilts, while averaging 30 minutes per game during this stretch.
Goodwin has always been a strong fantasy asset when given ample playing time, and he should have no issues outproducing his $4,600 salary tonight. With both James and Hachimura off the court this season, Goodwin is amassing 1.0 DraftKings PPM.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: DeMar DeRozan vs. Chicago Bulls – $8,200
If Sabonis and LaVine remain out as expected, DeRozan will be one of the best high-end targets on the slate against his former team, the Bulls. In the 136 minutes DeRozan has played with Sabonis and LaVine off the floor since the Kings traded Fox in February, DeRozan’s usage rises 4.8 percentage points to a team-high 30.6%. Additionally, his assist rate jumps 6.9 percentage points to 29.8%, which is also a team high.
DeRozan scores 1.3 DraftKings PPM with these increased rates, and as noted above, no team presents a higher implied team total than the Kings tonight (120 points). With everything working in his favor, DeRozan has a ceiling over 50 DraftKings points in our ShotQuality projections.
Top Value: Kevin Huerter at Sacramento Kings – $5,500
Huerter was traded from the Kings to the Bulls as part of the Fox trade, and Huerter should be highly motivated to put up a strong stat line in his return to Sacramento tonight. The veteran has started in four games in a row with Chicago down many key pieces, and during this timeframe, Huerter is producing 29.1 DraftKings points in 33.5 minutes per game with a 17.3% usage rate.
The Kings have slipped to 21st in defensive rating since the All-Star Break, and this game’s total is the highest on the slate (233 points). Huerter has 30 DraftKings point upside in this setting and is one of the best forward values available Thursday.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo at Los Angeles Lakers – $11,700
With a 5-5 record in their last 10, the Bucks desperately need a win tonight to hang onto the No. 5 seed in the Eastern Conference. Milwaukee is only favored by 3.5 points tonight, and Antetokounmpo should approach 40 minutes in this potential nail biter.
The superstar has eclipsed 60 DraftKings points in two of his past three games, and he should surpass 5x value in this marquee matchup in Los Angeles. This season, Antetokounmpo is scoring 1.7 DraftKings PPM with a league-high 36.2% usage rate, and he is averaging 59 DraftKings PPG when competing as a favorite, via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Draymond Green vs. Toronto Raptors – $6,300
Hosting the tanking Raptors, the Warriors carry the second-highest implied team total on the slate (119.75 points), and Green is the best value play to attack from Golden State. Since Jimmy Butler joined the Warriors, Green has been one of the primary beneficiaries. The veteran is averaging 33.8 DraftKings PPG in his 17 starts alongside Butler, which is a notable jump from his 29.8 DraftKings PPG average for the season.
Green should rack up multiple defensive stats against this lowly Raptors team, and over 40 DraftKings points isn’t out of the question for the veteran.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Mark Williams vs. New York Knicks – $8,400
While not safe enough for cash games, Williams has a ceiling worth pursuing in GPPs. Williams has topped 40 DraftKings points in three of his past five starts, including a 52.25 DraftKings point outburst in a brutal matchup vs. the Clippers, who rank fourth in defensive efficiency this season.
New York ranks 14th in defensive efficiency, and they are playing their second game in two nights, so this is a solid spot for Williams. The center is scoring 1.4 DraftKings PPM this season, and Williams could be a real game changer in GPPs if he has a strong showing. Via our projections, Williams is only slated to be around 1% owned in GPPs on DraftKings.
Top Value: Jusuf Nurkic vs. New York Knicks – $3,200
While not an exciting play, Nurkic is a valuable piece for this short slate, that helps you afford a stud like Doncic or Antetokounmpo. Nurkic is Williams’ backup in Charlotte, and Nurkic has outings of 18.25 and 16 DraftKings points over his last three games.
While the big man is only going to see 10-15 minutes off the bench, this is enough time for Nurkic to outproduce this near minimum price tag, which is a season low for the veteran. Nurkic is collecting 1.2 DraftKings PPM this season, and he is the No. 1 value on the slate in our ShotQuality projections.
