For Thursday, both DraftKings and FanDuel’s main slates feature all seven of the NBA’s games tonight. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: De’Aaron Fox vs. San Antonio Spurs – $8,500 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel
Fox is viable on both sites but remains a standout value play on DraftKings. The guard just exposed the Lakers for 58.5 DraftKings points last night, marking his sixth effort over 50 DraftKings points in his last seven starts, but his salary on DraftKings unexplainably dropped $100. Fox gets another prime matchup vs. the Spurs tonight and is a steal at this $8,500 price tag. San Antonio ranks fourth in pace and 24th in defensive efficiency, and Fox has been brilliant against the team this season, generating 61.4 DraftKings PPG in two matchups.
Tonight’s meeting carries the highest total on the slate by six points (237 points), and the Kings boast the largest implied team total on the board (124 points) via FantasyLabs’ Vegas page. When playing behind an implied team total of 120 points or more this season, Fox is amassing 50.6 DraftKings PPG (23 games), via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Tre Jones at Sacramento Kings – $5,300 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel
With Jones competing in the highest total on the slate (237 points) and Victor Wembanyama (ankle) unavailable, the former is a terrific bargain. Thanks to a team-high 4.6 percentage point increase to his usage rate, Jones is supplying 28.3 DraftKings PPG for the six starts he has made without Wembanyama this season, via the On/Off Tool.
Going against a Kings team that ranks 21st in defensive efficiency and is on the second leg of a back-to-back, Jones has the potential for over 30 fantasy points.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Anthony Edwards at Indiana Pacers – $8,800 DraftKings, $9,300 FanDuel
Edwards is a core play for this seven-game slate with Karl-Anthony Towns (knee) sidelined. In the two starts he has made without Towns this season, Edwards has been incredible, scoring 58.8 DraftKings PPG with a mammoth 41.3% usage rate, which is a huge 8.6 percentage point lift from his season average. Overall, with Towns off the court this season, Edwards leads the Wolves with 1.4 DraftKings PPM.
Plus, this is an elite matchup for him, with the Pacers ranking second in pace and 26th in defensive efficiency. Everything is lining up perfectly for Edwards, and he should explode tonight.
Top Value: Ben Sheppard vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – $3,200 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel
Tuesday vs. the Mavs, Sheppard saw an expanded role off the bench, logging 21 minutes en route to 24.75 DraftKings points. The rookie closed the game with the starters and played the entire fourth quarter in the win and should continue to see a bigger workload tonight with Benedict Mathurin (shoulder) out. Sheppard scores 0.82 DraftKings PPM with Mathurin off the court, and in his absence, Sheppard should approach 25 minutes tonight.
The Wolves are obviously a difficult matchup, with them leading the league in defensive efficiency, but Sheppard is just too for his expected role tonight, especially near the bare minimum on DraftKings.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Jimmy Butler at Dallas Mavericks – $8,300 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel
Just like Fox, Butler is viable on both sites, but is very underpriced on DraftKings and is a difficult fade on that site. The veteran has been putting the Heat on his back as of late, posting at least 49 DraftKings points in six of his past seven starts. Tyler Herro (ankle) remains unavailable tonight and with the guard off the floor this season, Butler’s usage rises to a team-high 2.5 percentage points. As for his matchup, Butler meets a Mavs club that has been dreadful on that side of the ball. This month, Dallas ranks dead last in the NBA in defensive rating at 132.1. To put into perspective how poor this is, the next worst rating for March is the Wizards at 126.1.
In this incredible spot, Butler’s impressive play absolutely should continue.
Top Value: Keldon Johnson at Sacramento Kings – $4,900 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel
While he will likely still come off the bench, Johnson needs to be attacked at these salaries with Wembanyama sidelined. With the rookie inactive this season, Johnson has been the primary beneficiary for San Antonio, leading the team with 37.2 DraftKings points in 30 minutes per game (six games). At 25.2%, the forward ranks second only to Devin Vassell in usage with Wembanyama off the court.
Especially at only $4,900 on DraftKings, Johnson should effortlessly outproduce this low salary in this slate-high total vs. the Kings (237 points).
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Kevin Durant vs. Toronto Raptors – $9,700 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel
In a win over the defending champion Nuggets on Tuesday, Durant finished with 57 DraftKings points. Devin Booker (ankle) missed this contest and will remain out Thursday. With the shooting guard inactive this season, Durant has been excellent, providing 51.9 DraftKings PPG (11 games). In those contests, the forward’s usage rose 5.0 percentage points to a team-high 34%.
The Raptors lead the league in pace this month, and Durant should put up another huge fantasy score in this outstanding spot. Playing way up in pace tonight, the Suns present the second-highest implied team total on the slate (120.75 points).
Top Value: Naz Reid at Indiana Pacers – $5,400 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel
Reid should put up strong numbers on a nightly basis with Towns out for the foreseeable. He is a sharp target tonight, with FantasyLabs slating him for modest ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel. When one of Towns or Rudy Gobert is unavailable, Reid instantly becomes the Wolves’ second big man and see a strong workload, despite coming off the bench. For the four occasions Minnesota has been without at least one of Towns or Gobert this season, Reid is collecting 30 DraftKings PPG.
No team in the NBA is allowing more points in the paint than the Pacers this season, and Reid should be very productive in this spot.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Rudy Gobert at Indiana Pacers – $7,500 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel
Gobert is also an awesome target, with Towns absent, and pairing Gobert and Reid in the same lineup tonight is a totally viable strategy that few DFS players will consider.
As noted above, this is an elite spot for big men, with Indiana surrendering the most points in the paint in the league, and for the two starts Gobert has made without Towns this season, the center is contributing 48.3 DraftKings PPG.
Top Value: Zach Collins at Sacramento Kings – $4,300 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel
FanDuel was quick to adjust Collins’ salary with Wembanyama ruled out, but DraftKings left Collins priced like a reserve, making him a no-brainer for all formats. With Wembanyama inactive five times this season, Collins has started in all these games and has produced 31.2 DraftKings PPG as the Spurs’ starting center.
Collins’ size is needed for this matchup with Domantas Sabonis, and with at least 25 minutes of work, Collins should destroy his cheap salary on DraftKings.
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