Thursday presents a six-game slate on DraftKings. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Jalen Brunson at Denver Nuggets – $9,100 DraftKings
The Knicks are in the midst of a West Coast road trip, and in his first three starts of this span, Brunson has been magnificent, producing 55.7 DraftKings PPG, thanks to an eye-popping 42.7% usage rate. When we compare the entire NBA’s last three games, no player has seen a higher usage rate than Brunson. Julius Randle (shoulder) and OG Anunoby (elbow) remain unavailable tonight, guaranteeing a massive workload for Brunson and Denver’s defense has been subpar this month, ranking 15th in defensive rating.
The guard’s incredible run should continue tonight as the Knicks attempt to upset the defending champions, and Brunson is only expected to be around 8% owned on DraftKings, according to our projections.
Top Value: Keon Ellis at Washington Wizards – $4,100 DraftKings
Kevin Huerter should remain sidelined tonight after dislocating his shoulder Monday, resulting in another spot start for Ellis. With Huerter inactive last night, Ellis started and finished with 21.25 DraftKings points across 25.2 minutes vs. the Raptors. The Kings won this game by a whopping 34 points, so their starters sat the entire fourth quarter. Ellis logged 16 minutes in the first half, putting him on pace for over 30, and he should see closer to this number tonight. Yes, the Kings are 11.5-point favorites vs. the Wizards, but on the second night of back-to-back sets this season, they are 4-7 ATS. Plus, this is an elite matchup, with Washington ranking first in pace and dead last in defensive efficiency.
The Kings carry the second-highest implied team total on the slate in this spot (124 points), and this game’s total is the second-largest on the board (237 points), via FantasyLabs’ Vegas page. If we included Monday, when Huerter only played two minutes before getting hurt, Ellis is amassing 25.5 DraftKings PPG for the last three times the Kings have been without Huerter. At this low salary, Ellis is an excellent punt play.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Jalen Green at Chicago Bulls – $8,300 DraftKings
With Alperen Sengun (ankle) on the shelf, Green is a player you must have exposure to. With the Sengun inactive Monday, Green erupted for 67.5 DraftKings points. The guard is now generating 53.8 DraftKings PPG for the five starts he has made without Sengun this season. Green has scored over 50 DraftKings points in all but one of those five contests, and with Sengun off the floor this season, Green’s usage has leaped 7.6 percentage points to an elite 35.3%, lifting him to 1.3 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool.
With the Bulls ranking 26th in defensive rating this month, Green is in a prime position to go off again.
Top Value: Miles McBride at Denver Nuggets – $4,700 DraftKings
With Anunoby sidelined Monday, Tom Thibodeau opted for a smaller starting lineup and moved McBride into the first unit instead of Precious Achiuwa, and McBride didn’t disappoint with the promotion, posting 37.5 DraftKings points in a strong road win over the Warriors. The third-year player almost didn’t leave the floor in the victory, logging a whopping 46 minutes. Considering the positive results, McBride should draw another start tonight and continue to see huge minutes, making him a tough value play to ignore.
When McBride has received at least 30 minutes of work this season, he is supplying 30.9 DraftKings PPG (nine games).
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Josh Hart at Denver Nuggets – $7,300 DraftKings DraftKings
With Anunoby unavailable Monday, Hart played the entire 48 minutes vs. the Warriors en route to a triple-double worth 45.75 DraftKings points. The veteran has now incredibly logged over 40 minutes in 12 of his 14 games since the All-Star Break. Thibodeau has no remorse when it comes to playing Hart massive minutes and with Anunoby out again tonight, it is almost guaranteed Hart sees over 40 minutes of action.
While he isn’t a high-usage player, this type of volume makes Hart a viable target for all formats. In the 11 starts the wing has made sans Anunoby since the All-Star Break, Hart is amassing 40.3 DraftKings points in 42.3 minutes per game.
Top Value: Amen Thompson at Chicago Bulls – $6,300 DraftKings
Thompson is another appealing value from the Rockets with Sengun missing. In the win over the Wizards on Monday, Thompson started and delivered 43 DraftKings points across 32 minutes. The wing has now recorded at least 43 DraftKings points in two of the past three contests Sengun has missed.
Thompson is providing 1.2 DraftKings PPM with Sengun off the court this season and should surpass 5x value against this struggling Bulls defense, which ranks fourth-to-last in rating this month.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Kyle Kuzma vs. Sacramento Kings, $8,100 DraftKings
Kuzma (shoulder) returns from a two-game absence tonight, and this is an awesome spot, going against the Kings, who rank 10th in pace, 18th in defensive efficiency, and are playing their second game in two nights. This game’s total is the second-highest on the slate (227 points) and Kuzma has scored at least 42 DraftKings points in four straight games on his home floor.
Kuzma is handling a career-high 30.2% usage rate this season, and he posted 40.5 DraftKings points when these two clubs met back in December. After missing two straight games, Kuzma is expected to be a forgotten man tonight, with FantasyLabs forecasting him for single-digit ownership on DraftKings.
Top Value: Keegan Murray at Washington Wizards – $5,800 DraftKings
Murray is a strong, affordable way to attack the Kings in this league-best matchup vs. the Wizards. Sacramento’s implied team total ranks second on the slate in this spot (127 points) and Murray has seen a notable boost with Huerter inactive this season, averaging 33.9 DraftKings points in 34 minutes per game.
Murray exposed the Wizards for 41.25 DraftKings points in the Kings’ first meeting of the season with Washington and is No.1 power forward value on the slate in our NBA models.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Domantas Sabonis at Washington Wizards – $11,000 DraftKings
Outside of Luka Doncic, Sabonis is easily the No.1 play on the slate. On top of the Wizards ranking first in pace and dead last in defensive efficiency, they are giving up the most rebounds and most points in the paint this season. A big man couldn’t ask for a better matchup, and Sabonis should dominate the Wizards, possibly for a triple-double.
The center went off for a 68.75 DraftKings point triple-double when these clubs met in December and has scored at least 55 DraftKings points in seven of his past 10 starts coming into tonight.
Top Value: Dereck Lively vs. Utah Jazz – $4,100 DraftKings
Hosting the Jazz and their defense that ranks second to last in efficiency this season, the Mavs boast the highest implied team total on the slate (125.5 points) and Lively is an appealing way to gain access to Dallas at this cheap price tag. While he comes off the bench now and backs up Daniel Gafford, Lively has still displayed a solid ceiling, scoring over 20 DraftKings points in four of his past five, including a 42.75 DraftKings points eruption against the Bulls.
Lively is generating 1.03 DraftKings PPM since the All-Star break and he recorded over 20 DraftKings points in each of his first two meetings of the season with Utah. Lively should top 20 DraftKings points again tonight and FantasyLabs is projecting him to be only around 6% owned on DraftKings.
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