For Thursday, this article will focus on DraftKings’ main slate, which features all six of the NBA games in action tonight.
The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Fred VanVleet vs. Washington Wizards – $8,300 DraftKings
Making his first start of the season without Alperen Sengun (ankle), VanVleet didn’t disappoint Tuesday, posting 48.75 DraftKings points across 39 minutes in a win over the Spurs. Sengun remains out tonight, and attributed to a 4.2 percentage point increase to his usage rate, VanVleet is scoring 1.2 DraftKings PPM with Sengun off the floor this season, via the On/Off Tool. On tap for tonight is the best possible matchup VanVleet could ask for, hosting the Wizards, who rank dead last in defensive efficiency and lead the league in pace.
The Rockets carry the second-highest implied team total on the slate in this elite spot (117.25 points), which is their largest total in over a month and a very high number with Sengun unavailable. VanVleet brings a top-five ceiling on the slate in our NBA models and is also a top-three value at this reasonable price tag. The guard is simply underpriced for life without Sengun and is an easy choice for all formats.
Top Value: Derrick White vs. Phoenix Suns – $7,000 DraftKings
White must be considered for GPPs tonight, with FantasyLabs slating him for single-digit ownership on DraftKings. Kristaps Porzingis (hamstring) is out tonight, and for the 18 starts White has made sans Porzingis this season, the guard is generating 37.8 DraftKings PPG. White collects 1.2 DraftKings PPM with Porzingis off the floor due to his usage rising 3.2 percentage points to 22.1%, and this number could grow even higher if Jaylen Brown (questionable, hip) also sits. With both Porzingis and Brown off the court this season, White’s usage leaps a team-high 8.2 percentage points, and he supplies 1.32 DraftKings PPM.
Nonetheless, White is a strong option even if Brown plays and is a sharp way to attack Boston’s large implied team total that ranks third on the slate (116.75 points).
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Tyrese Maxey at Milwaukee Bucks – $8,500 DraftKings
Maxey is an incredible tournament play tonight. This is the cheapest the guard has been on DraftKings in over two months and FantasyLabs is projecting him to be owned by around 2% of the field. Furthermore, this is a terrific matchup against a Bucks’ defense whose Achilles heel all season has been slowing down opposing point guards. Milwaukee rank second-to-last in defensive efficiency over their last three games and Maxey has flourished against them this season, averaging 49.4 DraftKings PPG in two matchups.
With Joel Embiid (knee) still sidelined, Maxey’s success against the Bucks should continue tonight and he could be a key to winning GPPs. With Embiid off the court this season, Maxey’s usage rises 3.9 percentage points to 32.1%, via the On/Off Tool.
Top Value: Amen Thompson vs. Washington Wizards – $5,200 DraftKings
Expect a bounce-back performance from Thompson tonight after he disappointed with the spot start with Sengun sidelined Tuesday. Thompson finished with only 15.5 DraftKings points in 22 minutes but should see more work tonight against a Wizards’ team that should continue to deploy a small starting five with Kyle Kuzma at center, with Richaun Holmes (toe) for his third straight. FantasyLabs is projecting Thompson for 27 minutes tonight, which is more than enough time for the wing to outperform this salary in this league-best matchup with Washington.
The 21-year-old is providing 1.1 DraftKings PPM this season and 30 DraftKings PPG for the last five times he has logged a minimum of 20 minutes.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Paul George at Chicago Bulls – $8,300 DraftKings
The Clippers have listed both Kawhi Leonard (back) and James Harden (shoulder) as questionable tonight. Harden saw a normal workload in Tuesday’s loss to the Wolves and feels likely to play, but Leonard missed the entire second half and even left the arena before the contest finished. Given the veteran’s long history of being a fragile player, it’s hard to imagine Leonard suits up tonight, and in that scenario, George will be an excellent option at this price point.
The wing’s usage rises 4.0 percentage points to a team-high 31.3% with Leonard off the floor this season, lifting George to 1.3 DraftKings PPM, and the Bulls should be extra susceptible on the defensive end, coming off an overtime win over the Pacers last night.
Top Value: Kelly Oubre Jr. at Milwaukee Bucks – $6,200 DraftKings
Even with Maxey returning from a four-game absence Tuesday vs. the Knicks, Oubre Jr. remained a starter for the 76ers and posted 28.5 DraftKings points, which was an encouraging result, considering he only saw 29 minutes due to New York winning this game by 27 points and that the Knicks had OG Anunoby back in the lineup, who has made them a truly elite defense when he is available. Plus, Oubre Jr. saw a huge 32% usage rate despite starting alongside Maxey.
The bottom line is Oubre Jr. is going to garner a large usage rate no matter who is sharing the floor with him, and if he remains a starter tonight as expected, the wing has to be considered at this low salary. As noted above, the Bucks rank second-to-last in defensive efficiency over their last three games, and Oubre Jr. has topped 30 DraftKings points in five of the past 10 games he has started.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Kyle Kuzma at Houston Rockets – $8,200 DraftKings
Kuzma should continue to start at center tonight with Holmes sidelined and is a strong consideration, even in this difficult matchup vs. the Rockets, who rank sixth in defensive efficiency. Kuzma hasn’t scored less than 40 DraftKings points in nine straight, and as the Wizards’ starting center in these past two, he has produced 46.5 DraftKings PPG despite facing the Heat and Grizzlies, who are both top-10 defenses this season.
Kuzma should be priced closer to $9,000 right now and is a steal at only $8,200.
Top Value: Corey Kispert at Houston Rockets – $5,400 DraftKings
Just like Kuzma, Kispert has benefited from the Wizards relying on small ball lineups with Holmes sidelined. With the center absent for the last two, Kispert has started and generated 33.9 DraftKings points in 37.3 minutes per game. Houston is a stout defense, but the veteran is just too cheap for his current role as a starter.
This season, Kispert is amassing 0.9 DraftKings PPM and 32.3 DraftKings PPG for the eight times he has logged over 30 minutes.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Philadelphia 76ers – $11,600 DraftKings
After a six-game road trip, the Bucks are finally back at home tonight and are hosting a 76ers defense that ranks 21st in defensive rating since the All-Star Break. Milwaukee has dropped three of their last four, and they are tied for second place in the Eastern Conference with Cavs. Tonight is a must-win for the Bucks, and Antetokounmpo should put up a huge fantasy score against the Embiid-less 76ers. The two-time MVP finished with 59.5 DraftKings points the last time he faced Philadelphia last month, and Khris Middleton (ankle) remains unavailable for the Bucks.
With the wing inactive this season, Antetokounmpo is amassing 61.2 DraftKings PPG (19 games), via the On/Off Tool.
Top Value: Daniel Gafford at Oklahoma City Thunder – $4,900 DraftKings
Gafford needs to be one of your core plays at this low salary. Last night, the center was outstanding in the win over the Warriors, recording 36 DraftKings points across 26.2 minutes, including seven blocks and two steals. Additionally, Gafford went 5-for-5 from the field and is now only three consecutive made shots away from passing Wilt Chamberlin for the NBA’s record of made field goals in a row.
Facing a Thunder team whose main weakness is interior defense, Gafford is in a great spot to make history tonight and he should easily exceed 5x value. In his last five, Gafford is contributing 35.8 DraftKings PPG.
