Thursday presents a six-game slate on DraftKings. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $10,900
Gilgeous-Alexander easily brings the highest ceiling on the slate in our ShotQuality projections and is a worthy spend on Thursday. Both Chet Holmgren and Alex Caruso remain sidelined with hip injuries, and with these two players off the court this season, Gilgeous-Alexander’s usage rises to 34.6%, and he scores 1.6 DraftKings PPM. The MVP candidate has made 12 starts without Holmgren and Caruso, and Gilgeous-Alexander has generated 55.9 DraftKings PPG on those occasions, via the On/Off Tool.
Ranking sixth in defensive efficiency, the Clippers aren’t a great matchup, but as we saw Tuesday when Gilgeous-Alexander torched the Timberwolves and their No.5 ranked defense for 54.75 DraftKings points, the guard is matchup-proof. Gilgeous-Alexander should never be priced under $11,000, and he is a viable target for all formats.
Top Value: D’Angelo Russell at Milwaukee Bucks – $5,200
In his first game back with the Nets on Wednesday, Russell instantly saw a large role for the thin Brooklyn team. In 26 minutes off the bench, the veteran finished with 42 DraftKings points vs. the Raptors with a 29.2% usage rate. Cam Thomas was rested for this game and is expected back Thursday, adding another high-usage player to the mix, but Russell should still see a strong enough role to easily beat this cheap salary.
Russell, Thomas, and Cam Johnson are going to operate as the Nets’ top three options going forward, and regardless if he still comes off the bench Thursday, Russell should see close to 30 minutes against this Bucks team that has a long history of struggling to slow down opposing guards since they acquired Damian Lillard. Russell is amassing a terrific 1.3 DraftKings PPM this season, and he is an easy choice at this affordable price tag.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
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NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Tyler Herro vs. Indiana Pacers – $8,600
Even with Jimmy Butler (illness) returning from a five-game absence last night, Herro’s excellent season continued with a 41.75 DraftKings point outing across 40 minutes in a win over the Pelicans. In his return, Butler only saw 24 minutes and he sat the entire fourth quarter. One could assume that the Heat don’t want to work with Butler with him possibly about to be traded ahead of the deadline, and with this being the second night of a back-to-back set for Miami, Butler shouldn’t see much work again, and there is a real chance he is just inactive.
Nonetheless, Herro should continue to be the Heat’s primary option, and this is a great spot for him to display his huge ceiling, with the Pacers in town, who ranks seventh in pace and 25th in defensive efficiency. Herro is leading Miami with a 27.6% usage rate this season, and when he last faced the Pacers, he posted 44 DraftKings points.
Top Value: Donte DiVincenzo vs. Boston Celtics – $4,900
With the Timberwolves struggling offensively, they have given DiVincenzo a larger role recently in hopes of improving their scoring. While he remains a reserve, DiVincenzo has seen the second-most minutes for Minnesota in their last three games at 33.4 per game, which has resulted in 35.9 DraftKings PPG for the veteran. The Timberwolves have won two of these three games, and DiVincenzo should continue to see a larger role off the bench tonight vs. the Celtics.
The wing is amassing 0.9 DraftKings PPM this season, and Minnesota will desperately need DiVincenzo to have a strong scoring performance if they want to keep up with Boston’s elite offense. This game carries a 220.5-point total, which is high for defensive-minded Timberwolves, and DiVincenzo is underpriced for his upside in this spot.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum at Minnesota Timberwolves – $10,400
In the likely event that the Celtics are without at least one of Jaylen Brown (shoulder) or Kristaps Porzingis (ankle) tonight, Tatum will be a compelling GPP play, regardless of this tough matchup vs. a Timberwolves defense that ranks fifth in efficiency. Both Brown and Porzingis are questionable, and the latter has missed three games in a row.
Tatum handles a 31% usage rate and scores 1.4 DraftKings PPM with Porzingis off the floor this season, while Tatum scores 1.6 DraftKings PPM with a 35.5% usage rate sans Brown. With both off the court, Tatum’s usage reaches 36.6%. This is one of the first games of the night to tip-off, and if the Celtics are down one or two of Brown and Porzingis, Tatum will be a player you must have some shares of in GPPs.
Top Value: Deni Avdija at Los Angeles Lakers – $5,700
With Jerami Grant (face) out tonight, Avdija is the No.1 forward value on the slate in our ShotQuality projections. Avdija has started in all three of the games Grant has missed this season, and Avidja has produced 36.8 DraftKings points in 36 minutes per game on those occasions. With a 22.4% usage rate, Avidja scores 1.2 DraftKings PPM with Grant off the floor, via the On/Off Tool.
The Lakers rank 21st in defensive efficiency, and Anthony Davis (ankle) is questionable. The big man sitting would further soften their defense, but nonetheless, Avidja should effortlessly surpass five-times value tonight and is a no-brainer for all formats.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: LeBron James vs. Portland Trail Blazers – $9,900
James is viable no matter what, but if Davis is out, James will become one of the best values on the slate. In the lone start James has made with Davis inactive this season, James went off for 59.25 DraftKings points vs. the Grizzlies. D’Angelo Russell was traded to the Nets earlier this week, and with the guard and Davis off the floor this season, James’ usage rises 6.2 percentage points to 35.7%, and he provides 1.4 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool.
The Lakers carry the highest implied team total on the slate against this Blazers defense that ranks 27th in efficiency (117.75 points), and James will easily out-produce his salary if Davis sits.
Top Value: Naz Reid vs. Boston Celtics – $4,500
Reid is coming off a 37 DraftKings point performance against the Thunder and their league-best defense on Tuesday. The big man logged 32.6 minutes off the bench in this game and notably closed the contest with the Timberwolves’ starters over Julius Randle. While over 30 minutes isn’t likely again, this move made it clear that the Minnesota coaching staff believes Reid needs more playing time.
The LSU product has scored at least 21 DraftKings points in five of his last six and has a great chance to exceed five-times value in this 220.5-point total vs. the Celtics.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Joel Embiid at Golden State Warriors – $9,400
After being rested last night, Embiid is expected to play tonight vs. the Warriors. Golden State ranks eighth in defensive efficiency, but there is no matchup in the NBA that should stop us from rostering Embiid at this cheap of a salary. Ranking fifth in the league in usage rate (37.1%), the center is contributing 1.4 DraftKings PPM this season, and in his last two starts, Embiid is amassing 54 DraftKings points in 34.9 minutes per game.
With the Warriors only favored by three points tonight, Embiid should see right around 35 minutes and surpass 50 DraftKings points, making him the best high-end value available Thursday.
Top Value: Day’Ron Sharpe at Milwaukee Bucks – $3,500
In the Nets’ first game since they traded Dorian Finney-Smith and Shake Milton for Russell, Sharpe posted 27 DraftKings points across 17.5 minutes vs. the Raptors. Now, Ben Simmons will be rested tonight, and the Nets’ starting power forward, Noah Clowney (back) is questionable. Sharpe should see 15-20 minutes with Simmons missing, and if Clowney ends up inactive, Sharpe will likely crack the 20-minute mark for the first time this season.
The center is scoring 1.2 DraftKings PPM this season and is an appealing punt play that would become a tough fade if Clowney sits.
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