The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic at Phoenix Suns – $12,700 DraftKings, $12,000 FanDuel
On almost any slate in nearly any matchup, Doncic will bring the highest ceiling at this point given his insane usage rate and production this season. On Thursday, he has the highest ceiling projection on the six-game slate by more than 11 FanDuel points and 11 DraftKings points over the player with the second-highest ceiling projection. No one can come close to challenging his upside when he’s on his game, and he has been on his game regularly over the past few weeks.
In his past seven games, Luka has dropped at least 64 DraftKings points four times, including in his most recent game when he helped compensate for the absence of Christian Wood (thumb) by scoring 41 points to go with 15 rebounds, six assists, and a steal in 38 minutes. His 70.75 DraftKings points are impressive, especially since he accumulated that total without hitting a single three-point shot. Imagine how massive his total could be if he gets his outside shot going in addition to everything else!
In two matchups against the Suns earlier this season, he had 33 points with 59 DraftKings points in a win and 35 points with 56.25 DraftKings points in a narrow loss in the season opener. His usage rate is always high, but without Wood, it climbed to an even-higher 43.3% on Tuesday, and he should be ready for another very active matchup in this showdown in Phoenix.
If you aren’t in a state with legal betting, Monkey Knife Fight has Doncic’s over/under for points sitting at 34.5.
Top Value: Seth Curry vs. Detroit Pistons – $5,000 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel
Curry ranks in the top five of Projected Plus/Minus at both point guard and shooting guard on both DraftKings and FanDuel. His versatility and production have been vital for the Nets in the absence of Kevin Durant (knee). Brooklyn is in a great spot on this slate against the Pistons, who have the second-worst Defensive Rating of any NBA team this season and have given up at least 115 points in each of their past 10 games, including three games in which they’ve allowed at least 135 points.
Curry has exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel in seven of his past 10 games and five of his past six. In those six games, he has averaged 27.9 DraftKings points in 30.9 minutes per game with 18.2 points, 2.7 rebounds, 2.7 assists, and 0.8 steals per game.
He’s coming off one of his best performances of the season on Wednesday. He had 32 points and 42.5 DraftKings points against his former team, the 76ers. As long as he’s available for the second game of the back-to-back, Curry makes a very nice value play at either guard spot and will be able to return nice production if his shot stays hot.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Zach LaVine at Charlotte Hornets – $8,900 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel
LaVine brings the highest ceiling projection of all shooting guards on DraftKings and is also in the top five at the position on FanDuel, where there are lots of elite point guard and small forward options that also bring shooting guard eligibility. On FanDuel, though, LaVine’s salary has dropped sharply after a down game Tuesday, and he now appears to be a great value, bringing the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard and the second-highest at small forward.
On Tuesday, LaVine had a rough shooting night against the Pacers, going just 4-of-14 and totaling only 14 points and 17.6 FanDuel points. Before that odd letdown, though, he had been turning in great numbers with at least 35 FanDuel points in eight straight games. In that eight-game run, he averaged 30.5 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 4.1 assists and hit over 45 FanDuel points five times. Part of that success was due to a more significant role while DeMar DeRozan (quad) was out, but he should still be able to out-produce his salary now that it has over-corrected a bit to DeRozan’s return.
LaVine gets a great matchup against the Hornets, and the Bulls have the second-highest Implied Team Total on the slate, giving all of their players a boost and LaVine a very high ceiling.
Top Value: Alex Caruso at Charlotte Hornets – $4,100 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel
Caruso is an outstanding value in the same favorable matchup, especially on DraftKings, where he has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the whole slate and the highest at both guard positions. On FanDuel, he has been priced up quite a bit, but he still has a positive Projected Plus/Minus, largely due to the matchup.
Caruso has exceeded salary-based expectations in five of his past six games on standard slates and returned to his very active role in the Chicago rotation. He has moved in and out of the lineup but has still scored at least 11 points in three of his past five games while chipping in 5.4 rebounds, 3.6 assists, and 3.0 steals in 28.5 minutes per game.
While many of the things Caruso brings to the floor don’t show up in the box score, enough stats pile up in multiple categories to make him a strong play in what should be a great spot against Charlotte.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Kawhi Leonard vs. San Antonio Spurs – $10,000 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel
Kawhi and the Clippers are also in a very favorable spot as they host the Spurs, who rank last in the NBA in Defensive Rating. Leonard showed he could dominate this matchup with a monster game against his former team in San Antonio last Friday, and he brings the third-highest ceiling projection at small forward on both DraftKings and FanDuel behind Jayson Tatum and DeMar DeRozan.
Leonard has been in top form lately, with over 48 DraftKings points in six of his past eight games. Over that stretch, he has produced 29.3 points, 7.0 rebounds, 3.8 assists, and 1.9 steals in 36.6 minutes per game. He has shot an impressive 55.6% from the field in those eight games and looked ready to step up and take the Clippers to the next level as one of the top contenders in the Western Conference.
The Clippers have the highest Implied Team Total on the slate in their great matchup against the Spurs, and Kawhi had 36 points, seven assists, four rebounds, two steals, 55.3 FanDuel points, and 56.5 DraftKings points in their meeting last week. He brings a similar ceiling in this rematch.
Top Value: Dorian Finney-Smith at Phoenix Suns – $4,200 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel
Playing DFS in DFS makes sense while Wood is out since he gets much more involved on the offensive end. In a good matchup against the Suns, Finney-Smith lands in the top six of Projected Plus/Minus at both small forward and power forward on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Finney-Smith was out with an injury of his own for almost and month and just recently returned from his adductor strain. In his four games since returning, he has averaged 9.8 points, 4.8 rebounds, 2.0 assists, and 0.8 steals in 32.1 minutes per game. His spot in the starting five seems secure, and he should be a solid value play even though he’s a low-usage contributor alongside Luka. Even though that does limit his ceiling a bit, his consistency and matchup make him a value worth considering.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Julius Randle at Boston Celtics – $9,900 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel
At power forward on Thursday, the top two ceiling projections on FanDuel and DraftKings come from this Atlantic Division matchup between the Celtics and Knicks. While Jayson Tatum‘s ceiling projection is slightly higher, I think Randle is the better option since he comes at significant salary savings on both sites and has a more secure workload. Jaylen Brown is probable and could help lift some of the load off Tatum, while Randle will be in his usual role as a centerpiece of the Knicks’ offense.
Randle has exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel in seven of his past 10 games with a strong +4.54 average Plus/Minus. He has nine double-doubles in those 10 games, averaging 26.2 points, 14.5 rebounds, 4.7 assists, and 37.8 minutes per contest.
He had 29 points, nine rebounds, and 43.25 DraftKings points in the first meeting between these teams this season, but his improved work, especially on the glass, has resulted in more ceiling performances lately. Without Mitchell Robinson (thumb), the Knicks will continue to rely on Randle to do most of the heavy lifting down low.
Top Value: Evan Mobley at Houston Rockets – $7,200 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel
Without Donovan Mitchell (questionable, groin), the Cavs have been leaning more heavily on second-year forward Evan Mobley, and he has risen to the task with some great production. With this juicy matchup against the Rockets on tap, look for Mobley to put up another significant number and be worth this salary. I usually try to go with a cheaper play in my values, but the potential here was too good to pass up. Mobley has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all power forwards and the third-highest of all players on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
He has exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his past 10 games with an impressive +6.04 average Plus/Minus, boosted by a few monster performances. One of the best games of his career came Saturday when he went off for 38 points, nine rebounds, three assists, and over 50 DraftKings points while leading the Cavs to a win over the Bucks.
In his past 10 contests, he has averaged 17.8 points, 8.6 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.5 blocks, and 35.5 DraftKings points in 35.3 minutes per game. He should be able to reach or exceed that production since the Cavs lead the slate with a +5.4 Pace Differential.
With an added boost from facing the struggling Rockets, Mobley is one of the best mid-range plays on the slate, with the potential to go off for a big number if things go his way.
Center
Top Ceiling: Alperen Sengun vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – $8,700 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel
While the Rockets’ record has been dreadful, there are some very positive signs coming out of Houston. One of the best has been the development of Sengun into a legitimate fantasy stud. The 20-year-old big man has the second-highest ceiling projection of all centers on DraftKings and the fifth-highest on FanDuel despite a tough matchup with the Cavs.
Sengun has been smashing expectations lately, posting a positive Plus/Minus in nine of his past 10 games with an average Plus/Minus of +15.63 over that stretch.
He has at least 54 DraftKings points in four of his past five games and has averaged 23.6 points, 12.2 rebounds, 7.6 assists, 2.0 blocks, and 1.2 steals in 37 minutes per game. He notched a triple-double with 21 points, 11 rebounds, and 10 assists Wednesday against the Wizards for 62.75 DraftKings points and 61.2 FanDuel points, and he was even better last week against the Lakers when he put up 70.25 DraftKings points and 70 FanDuel points in a dominant performance.
Sengun has previously flashed upside, but he seems to be all systems go for launch at this point. Get the young Rocket in your lineups as long as there aren’t any injury report shenanigans on the second night of a back-to-back.
Top Value: Dwight Powell at Phoenix Suns – $3,600 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel
Let’s go back to Big D for one last pick since Powell has also picked up his game without Wood and remains very cheap for this matchup in the desert. He has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus at center on DraftKings and the highest on FanDuel of all centers priced under $5.5K.
Powell exceeded salary-based expectations in each of the three games without Wood. He averaged 12.3 points, 6.3 rebounds, 1.3 assists, and 1.0 steals while playing 29.4 minutes per game. On Tuesday, he had a great game against Washington, scoring a season-high 22 points and producing 37.75 DraftKings points and 38.3 FanDuel points. While he isn’t likely to hit that ceiling again, he should get enough work to return good value at this minimal salary.
If you don’t trust Dwight and want a different bargain play at center on DraftKings, Zach Collins is hard to overlook under $4K. On FanDuel, the other top cheap option appears to be Kevin Love against the Rockets.
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