On tap for Thursday night is a seven-game slate. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Stephen Curry vs. Sacramento Kings – $9,300 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel
Curry has a long history of killing the Kings and should add another huge outing to his resume against the club tonight. The sharpshooter has scored at least 53 DraftKings points in three of his past four meetings with Sacramento and is contributing 47.3 DraftKings PPG in his past three starts entering tonight. Curry’s usage has been outstanding at 31.1% this season, and this game should be a fast-paced setting, with the Kings and Warriors ranking ninth and 12th in pace, respectively.
This contest’s total is the second highest on the slate (242.5 points), and Golden State is a two-point underdog, via Fantasy Labs’ Vegas page. When competing as an underdog in a total of at least 235 points this season, Curry has exposed his opponents for 48.1 DraftKings PPG (five games), via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Collin Sexton at Washington Wizards – $6,600 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel
Sexton has been excellent, scoring 40 DraftKings PPG in his last seven starts while leading the Jazz with a 29% usage rate during this run. The guard has recorded at least 38 DraftKings points in three straight games despite facing three top-10 defenses and now meets a Wizards team that is arguably the best matchup in the league.
Washington leads the league in pace and ranks second-to-last in defensive efficiency. As a result, no team in action tonight carries a higher implied team total than Utah (126.25 points), and this game’s total is the highest on the slate (245.5 points).
Sexton is amassing 42 DraftKings PPG for the last three times he has played an implied team total of at least 120 points, and his impressive run should continue in this dream spot.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Jaylen Brown at Miami Heat – $8,300 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel
These are very reasonable price tags for Brown, and FantasyLabs is only projecting him to be around 3% on both sites, making him a great GPP target. Brown has been tremendous lately, scoring over 40 DraftKings points in six of his last eight, including two outings over 50 and one explosion over 60. At 29%, his usage has remained elite this season despite Kristaps Porzingis’ presence in Boston, and this should be a better matchup than expected against Miami, with the club on the second leg of a back-to-back set.
Brown is generating 41.8 DraftKings PPG in his last five matchups with the Heat and should eclipse 40 fantasy points tonight.
Top Value: Alex Caruso at Los Angeles Lakers – $5,100 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
Caruso has been productive, recording at least 26 DraftKings points in six of his past nine, and will see a boost tonight with Zach LaVine (ankle) sidelined. Caruso’s usage has risen 2.3 percentage points when LaVine has been inactive this season, and this Lakers defense he is facing has struggled recently, ranking as the seventh-worst unit over their last three games. This tilt presents a 4.5-point spread, and Caruso is guaranteed to see big minutes in this nailbiter with LaVine sidelined.
Our NBA Models have Caruso projected for 32 minutes, and he should be able to grind out over 5x value against his former team. In two of his last three matchups with the Lakers, Caruso has produced over 27 DraftKings points.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $500 deposit match.
NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Lauri Markkanen at Washington Wizards – $8,000 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel
Ignore that Markkanen struggled with only 17.5 DraftKings points in his last start and attack the forward with confidence. Markkanen was in a brutal matchup in that poor start, going against the Pelicans, who rank 10th in defensive efficiency and 20th in pace. Now, the 26-year-old finds himself in the perfect bounce-back spot against the Wizards, who lead the league in pace and rank second-to-last in defensive efficiency. As noted above, the Jazz carry the highest implied team total on the slate (126.25 points), and this contest’s total is also the largest on the board (245.5 points).
In totals of 240 points or more this season, Markkanen is supplying 43.7 DraftKings PPG (eight games), via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Simone Fontecchio at Washington Wizards – $4,100 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel
Fontecchio is another appealing value to consider from the Jazz in this beautiful spot vs. the Wizards. Despite facing a top-10 defense in each of his last three starts, Fontecchio has provided 26.5 DraftKings points in 27.4 minutes per game during this stretch.
Now, with the Jazz sporting the highest implied team total on the slate tonight by a notable five points (126.25 points), Fontecchio should outproduce these cheap salaries, possibly with ease.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Julius Randle vs. Denver Nuggets – $8,900 DraftKings, $9,100 FanDuel
Randle has topped 50 DraftKings points in back-to-back starts and should make some serious noise in this big matchup with the defending champions. While Denver ranks 12th in defensive efficiency, this tilt carries the smallest spread on the slate, with the Nuggets only favored by two points.
Randle has thrived in spreads under three points this season, generating 47.3 DraftKings PPG (eight games), and has also impressively been dominant against Denver over the last few years, surpassing 50 DraftKings points in three of his past four meetings with the team.
Top Value: Patrick Williams at Los Angeles Lakers – $4,500 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel
Just like Caruso, Williams is a solid option with LaVine (ankle) out. With the shooting guard inactive this season, Williams has contributed 24 DraftKings points in 31.5 minutes per game (20 games), via the On/Off Tool.
The 22-year-old is projected to see one of the largest roles of any cheap power forward on the slate and is one of the best options if paying down at this position.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Joel Embiid at Indiana Pacers – $11,600 DraftKings, $12,600 FanDuel
While we can’t expect another 105.5 DraftKings point performance from Embiid like we saw Monday, the center should put up a huge fantasy score tonight vs. the Pacers and is the No.1 option on the slate. Embiid is leading the league in both usage (40.2%) and DraftKings PPM (1.93). Indiana is a tremendous spot for him, with the squad ranking second in pace, 26th in defensive efficiency and first in points in the paint allowed.
Embiid is averaging 68.1 DraftKings PPG vs. the Pacers this season across two matchups and should flourish with this game carrying the second-highest total on the slate (237.5 points). In totals of at least 235 points this season, Embiid has exploded for 74.1 DraftKings PPG (five games), via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Marvin Bagley vs. Utah Jazz – $5,200 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel
Even with Daniel Gafford back and Bagley coming off the bench, the latter has been productive in his last two games, collecting 31.5 DraftKings points in 21.5 minutes per game. Bagley has scored a strong 1.3 DraftKings PPM since being traded to the Wizards four games ago, thanks to a 22.8% usage rate and an 18.8% rebound percentage, which leads the team during this span.
In this slate-high total vs. the Jazz, Bagley brings better upside than these salaries suggest, and he is expected to get way overlooked as a reserve. For both DraftKings and FanDuel, FantasyLabs is forecasting Bagley to be less than 3% owned.
