On the menu for Thursday is a five-game slate. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: De’Aaron Fox vs. Indiana Pacers – $9,100 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel
After a five-game road trip, Fox is back home to and gets an elite matchup vs. the Pacers, who lead the league in pace and rank 26th in defensive efficiency. The Kings rank ninth in pace themselves, and this game unsurprisingly carries the highest total on the slate (246.5 points). Furthermore, the Kings’ implied team total is up to 128.5 points, which is the largest on the board by five points, via FantasyLabs’ Vegas page.
Fox is handling a career-high usage rate this season (31.7%) and is amassing 51.7 DraftKings PPG when playing behind an implied team total of at least 120 points (17 games), via the Trends Tool. Fox should be priced closer to $10,000 tonight and is a terrific value at these price points.
Top Value: Immanuel Quickley vs. Chicago Bulls – $7,000 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel
In the Raptors’ first game since trading Pascal Siakam to the Pacers, Quickley shined last night, delivering 41 DraftKings points in a 24-point win over the Heat. The guard was one assist and two assists shy of a triple-double despite only seeing 30.2 minutes in the blowout.
Quickley has now recorded at least 38 DraftKings points in three of his last four starts, and is averaging 1.3 DraftKings PPM in the 94 minutes he has played without Siakam since joining Toronto. In those minutes, Quickley’s usage rate has risen 1.7 percentage points and his assist percentage has skyrocketed 10.7 percentage points to a whopping 35.7%, via the On/Off Tool.
While this is a slow matchup with the Bulls ranking 28th in pace, Quickley is very underpriced for life without Siakam and is a no-brainer tonight.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Anthony Edwards vs. Memphis Grizzlies – $8,400 DraftKings, $9,300 FanDuel
While a viable option on both sites, Edwards is tough to overlook at only $8,400 on DraftKings. The wing has generated 50.5 DraftKings PPG in his last two starts and was priced up to $9,100 on DraftKings just four games ago. The Wolves are back home tonight and are hosting the shorthanded Grizzlies. Memphis ranks eighth in defensive efficiency, but no matchup in the league would stop us from rostering Edwards at his affordable salary on DraftKings, especially with him at home.
Edwards is scoring 46.8 DraftKings PPG on his home floor this season, which is 5.6 DraftKings PPG more than when he’s on the road.
Top Value: Gary Trent Jr. vs. Chicago Bulls – $4,300 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel
With Siakam traded to Indiana, Trent Jr. was inserted into the Raptors’ starting five last night and was excellent in a tough matchup vs. the Heat, finishing with 36.5 DraftKings points across 30.5 minutes. Considering Toronto won this game by 24 points and Trent Jr. finished a +14 in the box score, he should see a similar role tonight, making him an easy choice at these low price tags.
With a 20% usage rate, Trent Jr. is amassing 0.8 DraftKings PPM with Siakam off the floor this season and is scoring 24.1 DraftKings PPG for the 20 occasions he has cracked the 25-minute mark.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Lauri Markkanen vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – $8,300 DraftKings, $9,100 FanDuel
The Jazz have won six games in a row – which is tied for the longest active winning streak in the NBA – and Markkanen has been one of the main reasons why. During this time, the forward is supplying 50.1 DraftKings PPG and has topped 50 DraftKings points in four of his six starts.
The Thunder rank seventh in defensive efficiency, but Utah is at home tonight, and they are well rested, having not played since Monday. This game’s total is the second highest on the slate (244 points), and the Thunder are only favored by four points via FantasyLabs’ Vegas page.
In this excellent setting, Markkanen’s impressive run should continue, and he is a terrific spend for all formats, especially at only $8,300 on DraftKings. In spreads under five points this season, Markkanen has provided 44.8 DraftKings PPG (11 games), via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: RJ Barrett vs. Chicago Bulls – $6,600 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel
Like Quickley, Barrett was excellent in his first start without Siakam last night, posting 41 DraftKings points in the convincing win over the Heat. In the 136 minutes Barrett has played without Siakam, the former’s usage has increased 2.9 percentage points to 26.5%, and he has produced 1.2 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool.
Barrett has surpassed 40 DraftKings points in four of his past six starts and absolutely has a chance to exceed that mark again tonight, regardless of this slow matchup with the Bulls.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Julius Randle vs. Washington Wizards – $8,800 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel
Hosting the Wizards tonight, who rank second in pace and second-to-last in defensive efficiency, the Knicks boast the second-highest total on the slate (123.25 points). Randle has dominated Washington for 52 DraftKings PPG in two matchups this season and should put up another huge stat line tonight.
The forward has led the Knicks with a 31.4% usage rate since they traded away Quickley and Barrett, and is averaging 49.5 DraftKings PPG when playing behind an implied team total of 115 points or higher this season (15 games), via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: GG Jackson II at Minnesota Timberwolves – $4,000 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel
While priced correctly on FanDuel, Jackson is criminally underpriced on DraftKings and needs to be rostered. Desmond Bane (ankle) will miss his third straight, and with the wing out for the last two, Jackson has flourished off the bench, scoring 37.25 DraftKings points in 28 minutes per game. Both of these contests have been competitive, and Jackson has closed both of these tilts with the Grizzlies’ starters. Additionally, the 19-year-old has seen a 23% usage rate.
The Wolves are the No.1 defense in the league, but Jackson feels safe to see big minutes no matter if this game is close or not, given he is a rookie. Jackson is contributing a strong 1.2 DraftKings PPM this season and is a difficult fade at only $4,000 on DraftKings.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Domantas Sabonis vs. Indiana Pacers – $10,000 DraftKings, $10,100 FanDuel
Sabonis has been incredible, amassing 58.4 DraftKings PPG in his last eight starts, including five triple-doubles. Now, after a five-game road trip, the center is back at home and is hosting his former team in the Pacers, who, as noted above, rank first in pace and 26th in defensive efficiency. To put some more gas on the fire, no team in the league is allowing more points in the paint than Indiana, making this the best matchup a center could ask for.
This game’s total is the highest on the slate by a wide gap (248.5 points) and in totals of at least 240 points this season, Sabonis has been a stud, collecting 58.6 DraftKings PPG (nine games), via the Trends Tool. At these reasonable price tags, the center is one of the best values on the slate and a building blocks for all formats.
Top Value: Marvin Bagley III at New York Knicks -$4,000 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel
Bagley will make his Wizards debut tonight and should find himself with a large role right out of the gate. Daniel Gafford (concussion) has already been ruled out, likely making Bagley Washington’s starting center vs. the Knicks. Even if the Wizards decided to bring Bagley off the bench, the veteran is the only true center on their roster, and his size will be needed for a good amount of this game, considering New York is a team that starts two natural big men.
Bagley is scoring 1.0 DraftKings PPM this season, and FantasyLabs is slating him for 24 minutes of work tonight, giving him a strong projection relative to his low salaries. For the 10 instances Bagley has logged over 20 minutes this season, the big man has responded with 23.4 DraftKings PPG. Especially on DraftKings, where you can roster two centers, and Bagley is only $4,000, he is good chalk to embrace.
