For Thursday night, there is a four-game slate to attack. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Jalen Brunson at Dallas Mavericks – $8,700 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel
Before Tuesday’s blowout win over the Blazers that limited Brunson to only 25 minutes, the guard was playing very well since the Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett for OG Anunoby trade, amassing 48.1 DraftKings PPG in his first four starts following the deal.
After that lopsided victory Tuesday, the Knicks find themselves in a more competitive setting tonight, as only four-point favorites over the Mavs in Dallas. The Mavs play at the 11th fastest pace in the league, which is a huge upgrade for this New York team that ranks 26th, and the Knicks carry an implied team total of 119 points in this spot.
Brunson is averaging 44 DraftKings PPG when competing as a road favorite this season (six games) – via the Trends Tool – and is an appealing spend in this up-tempo matchup vs. his former team.
Top Value: Payton Pritchard vs. Milwaukee Bucks – $5,000 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel
While his floor is shaky as a bench player, Pritchard brings a solid ceiling in this excellent spot vs. the Bucks and is a risk worth taking in GPPs. Milwaukee’s defense has been their Achilles heel this season, ranking 20th in efficiency. Additionally, they rank third in pace. The Bucks are one of the best matchups to attack in the NBA for fantasy purposes, particularly for opposing guards, with Damian Lillard and Malik Beasley both very weak defenders. Via the FantasyLabs’ Vegas page, this game sports the highest total on the slate by a sizeable gap, and the Bucks are only 4.5-point favorites.
In addition to the elite matchup, Al Horford is expected to be rested by the Celtics after playing last night, as the veteran has yet to play in both legs of a back-to-back this season, and in the six contests Horford has missed, Pritchard has been outstanding with 30 DraftKings PPG, via the On/Off Tool.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Kyrie Irving vs. New York Knicks – $9,000 DraftKings, $10,100 FanDuel
Irving has been on fire, topping 50 DraftKings points in four straight starts, and should extend this streak with the Mavs shorthanded tonight. On top of Luka Doncic (ankle) being ruled out, Dante Exum (foot) will be inactive, and Dereck Lively II (ankle) is doubtful. With these three players off the court, Irving leads the Mavs with 1.32 DraftKings PPM, which is attributed to a massive 11.6 percentage point increase in his assist percentage. Plus, with these three players out last Friday, Irving finished with 51.75 DraftKings points in only 28 minutes of work in a blowout win over the Blazers.
The Knicks are a tough matchup with Anunoby in town, but Irving should still put up a huge stat line as the Mavs’ alpha and is a tough player to ignore for this short four-game slate, especially at only $9,000 on DraftKings.
Top Value: Jaden Hardy vs. New York Knicks – $3,700 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel
Continuing with the depleted Mavs, Hardy should start tonight and is a core play for this short slate. With Doncic, Exum, and Lively out last Friday, Hardy started and went off for a season-high 45.25 DraftKings points in 32.3 minutes vs. the Blazers. In all the minutes he has played without those three key players this season, Hardy has generated 1.2 DraftKings PPM with a 27.7% usage rate and 30.4% assist percentage.
The guard is amassing 33.4 DraftKings PPG for the three occasions he has logged at least 25 minutes this season and should exceed 5x value with ease tonight, despite the poor matchup with the Knicks.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.
NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum at Milwaukee Bucks – $10,200 DraftKings, $10,400 FanDuel
Tatum has been incredible and shouldn’t disappoint in this marquee matchup with the Bucks. In an overtime win over the Wolves and their league-best defense last night, Tatum poured in 57.5 DraftKings points. The wing has now recorded at least 54 DraftKings points in five of his last six starts, with that outlier being a blowout win over the Spurs, in which his minutes were cut short.
As for his matchup, as noted above, this matchup with the Bucks carries the highest total on the slate (242.5 points) and a small spread of only 4.5 points. Tatum is supplying 55 DraftKings PPG in totals of at least 235 points this season (seven games) and is an excellent contrarian option. For both DraftKings and FanDuel, FantasyLabs is projecting the superstar for single-digit ownership.
Top Value: Josh Green vs. New York Knicks – $4,100 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel
Green started with Doncic, Exum, and Lively out last Friday and delivered 29.25 DraftKings points in 25 minutes vs. the Blazers. Green didn’t play the entire fourth quarter, with this game being a 36-point win for Dallas, but they should see more work tonight with this matchup vs. the Knicks presenting a small spread of only four points. Right around 30 minutes is a fair expectation for Green, giving him a solid chance to beat these low salaries.
For the last five times he has cracked the 25-minute mark, Green is amassing 21.1 DraftKings PPG.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Julius Randle at Dallas Mavericks – $8,800 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel
Randle has benefited with Quickley and Barrett now in Toronto, contributing 45.9 DraftKings PPG in his first five starts since the trade. During this time, Randle has led the Knicks with a 31.8% usage rate, which is a 3.2 percentage point lift from his season average. Randle should excel playing way up in pace vs. this Mavs’ team that ranks 11th in pace, especially when you factor in that this is a homecoming for the forward.
Randle is originally from Dallas and is averaging 53.7 DraftKings PPG for the last five times he has faced the Mavs on their home floor.
Top Value: Derrick Jones Jr. vs. New York Knicks – $4,900 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel
With the Mavs understaffed tonight, we should see a heavy dose of Jones Jr. The veteran has logged over 34 minutes in back-to-back games and should see nothing less than that in this tight spread vs. the Knicks. Jones Jr. handles a solid 17.8% usage rate with Doncic, Green, and Lively off the floor this season and has provided 30 DraftKings PPG in the last five instances he has logged over 30 minutes.
These salaries simply don’t reflect the heavy volume Jones Jr. should see tonight.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Anthony Davis vs. Phoenix Suns – $10,300 DraftKings, $11,400 FanDuel
Davis has flashed massive upside as of late, scoring over 65 DraftKings points in four of his past eight starts, and has a huge ceiling tonight vs. the Suns. The Lakers will be at home tonight, where the big man has been 2.8 DraftKings PPG better than when on the road, and this is a terrific game environment, with this contest carrying the second-highest total on the slate (238.5 points) and a one-point spread in favor of Los Angeles.
Davis is amassing 51.5 DraftKings PPG in three matchups with the Suns this season, and he has impressively eclipsed in 18 of the 20 starts he has competed as a favorite this season. Especially at only $10,300 on DraftKings, Davis is rated as an awesome value.
Top Value: Dwight Powell vs. New York Knicks – $4,200 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel
Powell has been solid in Lively’s absence and is another value from the Mavs that must be considered. In these last three with the rookie sidelined, Powell has started at center for Dallas and has provided 22.6 DraftKings points in 25.2 minutes per game. The Knicks are a stout defense, but they are a large team with Randle and Isaiah Hartenstein starting in the frontcourt, and Dallas desperately needs Powell’s size and strength for this matchup.
The veteran could be forced to approach 30 minutes, given the situation, and is just too cheap for his expected role. With Doncic, Exum, and Lively off the court this season, Powell is collecting 1.0 DraftKings PPM via the On/Off Tool.
