Thursday night delivers a seven-game slate. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Stephen Curry at Indiana Pacers – $9,500 DraftKings, $9,300 FanDuel
Slated for single-digit ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel, according to our projections, this is an excellent time to buy low on Curry. The guard only scored 14.75 DraftKings points last night vs. the 76ers, but this was due to the Warriors running away with a 23-point win and Curry only seeing 24 minutes in the lopsided victory. Now, the sharpshooter is in the perfect spot to get back on track, facing the Pacers, who rank second in pace and 23rd in defensive efficiency. By nearly seven points, this game carries the highest total on the slate (250 points), which is the largest total the Warriors have competed in this season.
Just three games ago, Curry competed in a total of 245 points vs. the Hawks, and the veteran erupted for a season-best 79.5 DraftKings points. Overall, for the five occasions Curry has played in a total of at least 240 points this season, the future Hall-of-Famer is generating 56.8 DraftKings PPG, via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Markelle Fultz vs. San Antonio Spurs – $4,500 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel
While priced accordingly on FanDuel, Fultz is far too cheap on DraftKings. After missing essentially the first few months of the season, the former first overall pick has been solid, scoring 25.6 DraftKings points in 26 minutes per game across his last five starts. Included in this run is a 29.75 DraftKings points performance vs. the Spurs, whom Fultz will face again tonight. San Antonio is one of the best matchups in the league, with the club ranking fifth in pace and 25th in defensive efficiency. Furthermore, the Spurs are playing their second game in two nights this evening.
The Magic’s implied team total ranks fourth on the slate (118.25 points), and Fultz is an outstanding value at his low salary on DraftKings.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Donte DiVincenzo vs. Dallas Mavericks – $7,900 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel
With Julius Randle (shoulder) and OG Anunoby (elbow) remaining out tonight, DiVincenzo brings a huge ceiling. In these past five sans Randle and Anunoby, DiVincenzo has produced 47.6 DraftKings points in 39.7 minutes per game. During this time, the veteran has seen a 26.3% usage rate, which ranks second for the Knicks, only trailing Jalen Brunson. The Mavs are a compelling matchup, ranking 12th in pace and 22nd in defensive efficiency, and DiVincenzo should top 40 fantasy points.
Speaking of Brunson, the guard is questionable tonight with an ankle injury, and if he ends up sitting, DiVincenzo would become an even stronger option. While a limited sample of only 41 minutes, the wing has led the Knicks with a huge 35.8% usage rate with Brunson, Randle, and Anunoby off the court since the latter was dealt to New York via the On/Off Tool.
Top Value: Alex Caruso at Memphis Grizzlies – $5,300 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel
With some increased playing time, Caruso has flashed solid upside, exceeding 30 DraftKings points in four of his last seven starts. During this seven-game span, the veteran has garnered 34 minutes per game, which is well above his 26.9 average for the season. This is a result of Zach LaVine (ankle) and Patrick Williams (foot) both being injured, but it also could be a result of the Bulls showcasing Caruso, as he has been a consistent name in trade rumors all season.
The trade deadline is today at 3:00 PM EST, and if Caruso remains a Bull past the deadline, he will be worth attacking against this depleted Grizzlies’ team, which ranks second-to-last in defensive efficiency over their last three, that possibly could see an even larger role than he has been seeing lately if Chicago trades any of his teammates, which feels inevitable for this sub .500 squad.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Jonathan Kuminga at Indiana Pacers – $7,300 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel
Kuminga’s minutes were cut short due to the Warriors winning by 23 points last night, but he should bounce back in a big way in this elite spot vs. the Pacers, who rank second in pace and 23rd in defensive efficiency. This tilt’s total is the highest on the slate (250 points) and should be competitive throughout, with Indiana only favored by 6.5 points. Before last night, Kuminga was flourishing with a new, larger role, scoring at least 43 DraftKings points in five of his previous seven starts. Overall, in the Warriors’ last eight games, Kuminga has seen 34.4 minutes per game and a 25% usage rate, which ranks second on the team, only trailing Curry.
Playing up in pace vs. the Pacers is a perfect situation for Kuminga, and he is a mouthwatering option, with FantasyLabs forecasting him for single-digit ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Top Value: Josh Hart vs. Dallas Mavericks – $6,300 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel
Similar to DiVincenzo, Hart has benefited greatly with Anunoby and Randle sidelined. In these past five without these two starters, Hart has generated 34.5 DraftKings points in 39.5 minutes per game. Now, with Quentin Grimes traded to the Pistons and Alec Burks and Bojan Bogdanovic unlikely to make their Knicks’ debut tonight, even more playing time has opened for Hart, and he should see north of 40 minutes in this 3.5-point spread vs. the Mavs.
With this type of volume, Hart has 40 fantasy-point upside and has to be considered.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Paolo Banchero vs. San Antonio Spurs – $8,200 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel
Banchero is supplying 47.3 DraftKings PPG in his last five starts and should thrive in this awesome spot vs. the Spurs. As noted above, San Antonio Spurs ranks fifth in pace and 25th in defensive efficiency, and the Magic’s implied team total is the fourth highest on the slate (118.25 points).
This is a high total for this slow, defensive-minded Orlando team, and for the nine instances Banchero has played behind an implied team total of at least 115 points this season, he has been excellent, with 44.7 DraftKings PPG.
Top Value: Draymond Green at Indiana Pacers – $6,100 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel
Just like Kuminga, Green should get back on track tonight vs. the Pacers after seeing limited work in last night’s blowout win over the 76ers. The veteran only posted 19 DraftKings points in 18.1 minutes last night, but prior to this, Green was averaging 35.7 DraftKings points in 33.3 minutes per game in his first five starts since being reinserted into the Warriors’ starting lineup.
Green should stuff the stat sheet in this slate-high total in Indiana (250 points), which is particularly appealing at only $6,100 on DraftKings.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Nikola Vucevic at Memphis Grizzlies – $7,600 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel
Just like with Caruso, Vucevic is a player who could be on the move today, but if he remains a Bull, Vucevic should tally a big double-double in this great spot vs. the Grizzlies. On top of ranking second-to-last in defensive efficiency over their last three, Memphis is allowing the most points in the paint in the league during this stretch.
Vucevic has recorded at least 43 DraftKings points in three straight and should exceed 40 fantasy points against the understaffed Grizzlies, especially if he gains any extra usage due to some of his teammates being traded.
Top Value: Brook Lopez vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – $6,200 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel
Lopez (personal) will make his return from a three-game absence tonight and is expected to get minimal attention in GPPs, making him a worthwhile gamble. Before missing these last three, Lopez was being relied on heavily, logging 35 minutes per game in his previous seven, which is a notable increase from his 31.5 average for the season. With the increased volume, Lopez has supplied 35.4 DraftKings PPG during this seven-game stretch, and the high playing time is guaranteed to continue tonight, facing one of the biggest teams in the NBA in the Wolves, who start Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert in their front-court.
Minnesota leads the league in defensive efficiency, but Lopez’s high expected playing time out trumps the matchup concerns at these price points.
