The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Trae Young vs. Phoenix Suns – $9,900 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel
Young is officially listed as questionable for this tilt with the same shoulder contusion which kept him out of Tuesday’s loss to the Raptors. Judging by the pre-game betting line here, though, it would appear he’s on track to play. As long as he suits up, our model makes him the player with the highest upside on the slate at both sites with a ceiling over 70 fantasy points on DraftKings.
Top Value: Cory Joseph vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – $4,300 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel
Joseph could be in line for some big minutes on Thursday with Cade Cunningham dealing with a hip issue and Josh Jackson questionable. He went over 20 fantasy points against the Pelicans last time out and garnered a heavy 25.7% Usage Rate, earning himself a projection over 5X from our model.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Devin Booker vs. Atlanta Hawks – $9,300 DraftKings, $9,100 FanDuel
Because of the obvious scoring differences (and some positional eligibility), Booker is far and away the player with the highest upside at this position on DraftKings at over 60 fantasy points. He’s played at least 37 minutes in his last seven games and has only dipped below 48 fantasy points one time. The shooting guard will be up against a poor Hawks defense and should be able to fill up the stat sheet yet again.
Top Value: Coby White vs. Toronto Raptors – $5,500 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel
Only a handful of players enter Thursday with a 5X projection or better on FanDuel, and White is one of them. A better value play over there — but still a 5X play on DraftKings — White’s price has come back down to its mid-January level after the minutes have dissipated. The matchup may not be the best, but we’re still projecting White at nearly 30 minutes which should help him easily hit value.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Jimmy Butler vs. San Antonio Spurs – $9,400 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel
Butler’s projected ceiling of over 60 fantasy points is very warranted here, given the fact that he’s gone over that number twice in the last five games and meets a Spurs team ranked 26th on the defensive end over the last two weeks. He’s gone over his projected output in the last three games and is an excellent option on both sites.
Top Value: Terance Mann vs. Los Angeles Lakers – $3,800 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel
Mann’s role on the Clippers has remained consistent, as has his price. We have him set for around 26 minutes here in a very tight game vs. an undermanned Lakers team, which should get you to 5X salary at the minimum. Mann has out-performed his projected total in three of the last five games, including three games of 17 fantasy points or more.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Pascal Siakam vs. Chicago Bulls – $9,000 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel
The Bulls are another team that has struggled on defense over the last two weeks, ranking 20th, and one man who could be in line to capitalize is Siakam. The wing has scored 45 fantasy points or more in his last three contests and enters with a ceiling around 60 here. He’s particularly tasty over on FanDuel, where he enters with a +1.39 Opponent Plus/Minus, though you’ll have to pay a little more.
Top Value: Thaddeus Young vs. Miami Heat – $3,000 DraftKings, $3,500 FanDuel
Our favorite back-to-the-basket four and late-career value play is back. Young has been used rather sparingly this season by the Spurs, but with a whole host of Spurs out from Jakob Poeltl to Keita Bates-Diop and Jock Landale, it seems Young should finally be in line for some run. We have him projected for 16 minutes, which should be more than enough for him to return value at the minimum.
Center
Top Ceiling: Anthony Davis vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $9,800 DraftKings, $9,600 FanDuel
The Lakers have quietly been playing some good basketball while LeBron James has been out, and even though they’ve lost three of those games, their offense still ranks just outside the top 10 in that four-game stretch. Davis has gone for 57 fantasy points or more in two of his last three and draws a soft Clippers frontcourt here. Our model has his ceiling over 70 fantasy points, which seems well within reason.
Top Value: Drew Eubanks vs. Miami Heat – $3,300 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel
I mentioned Young as a beneficiary of the Spurs’ injury woes earlier, but Eubanks is probably the safer call for cash games. We have him set for 24 minutes given his more consistent role with the team, and he’s projected at 6X on FanDuel and 8X on DraftKings. He’s produced when allowed to play, going for nearly 5X in 15 minutes three games ago against Chicago and over 6X against the Suns over the weekend.
