For both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight, the main slate will feature the first six games of the night.
The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at San Antonio Spurs – $10,700 DraftKings, $11,400 FanDuel
Gilgeous-Alexander brings the highest ceiling on the slate in our NBA Models regardless of position and is worth paying up for. The MVP candidate ranks fourth in the league in usage rate this season (33.1%) and has recorded at least 54 DraftKings points in four of his last six starts. Plus, Gilgeous-Alexander faces a Spurs team he has exposed for 58.75 DraftKings PPG in two matchups this season. Ranking fourth in pace and 24th in defensive efficiency, San Antonio is one of the premier matchups to attack in the NBA, and Oklahoma City’s implied team total is the highest of this six-game slate (123.75 points), via FanastyLabs’ Vegas page.
For the last eight times Gilgeous-Alexander has played behind an implied team total of at least 120 points, the Kentucky product is generating a whopping 60 DraftKings PPG.
Top Value: Dennis Schroder vs. Atlanta Hawks – $5,200 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel
Schroder is a terrific bargain at these price points. The veteran joined the Nets’ first unit two games ago and has provided 26.6 DraftKings PPG with the starting role despite both of these games being blowouts. Tonight calls for a different environment, with the Nets only 1.5-point favorites over the Hawks, which is the smallest spread on the slate. Schroder has seen 15.6 first-half minutes per game as a starter in these past two and should see over 30 minutes in this nail-biter against his former team. Ranking third in pace and 27th in defensive efficiency, Atlanta is an elite matchup for Schroder, and he should also benefit from Cam Thomas (ankle) sidelined.
In the 71 minutes Schroder has played without Thomas since joining the Nets, the former has supplied 0.83 DraftKings PPM, which is mostly attributed to a 5.5 percentage point increase in his assist rate, via the On/Off Tool. In this near-perfect situation, Schroder brings a much better upside than his salaries suggest.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Devin Vassell vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – $7,100 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel
After posting 43 DraftKings points vs. the Wolves and their league-best defense in Minnesota on Tuesday, Vassell returns home tonight after a nine-game road trip. The shooting guard has 3.3 DraftKings PPG better on his home floor this season and just tallied 40.25 DraftKings points vs. this same Thunder team last month. Both of these teams rank inside the top 10 in pace this season, and tonight’s matchup carries the highest total on the slate (236.5 points).
Vassell is amassing 39.8 DraftKings PPG when competing in a total of at least 235 points at home this season (eight games) and should thrive in this track meet vs. Oklahoma City.
Top Value: Lonnie Walker vs. Atlanta Hawks – $3,900 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel
Walker is worth taking a flier in GPPs with Thomas unavailable. For the 10 contests the shooting guard has missed this season, Walker is producing 20.8 DraftKings points in 21 minutes per game, via the On/Off Tool. The veteran ranks second on the Nets in usage with Thomas off the court (26.2%) and scores 1.1 DraftKings PPM in this situation.
In this elite spot vs. the Hawks, Walker has the potential to exceed 20 fantasy points, and he should naturally come with low ownership as a bench player.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Josh Hart vs. Golden State Warriors – $7,100 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel
Hart is a strong target no matter what, and he would see an additional boost if Jalen Brunson (neck) is inactive. With Julius Randle (shoulder) and OG Anunoby (elbow) on the shelf, Hart has surpassed 40 DraftKings points in six of his last eight starts while leading the Knicks with 39.3 minutes per game during this stretch.
Hart collects 0.9 DraftKings PPM with both Randle and Anunoby off the court this season and is underpriced for the incredible volume he will see tonight.
Top Value: De’Andre Hunter vs. Brooklyn Nets – $5,500 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel
Hunter is a tremendous sleeper pick tonight, with FantasyLabs projecting him to be less than 5% owned on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Trae Young (finger) will miss his second in a row tonight, and with the guard inactive Tuesday vs. the Jazz, Hunter finished with 28.75 DraftKings points across 27.6 minutes. The wing is now averaging 32.5 DraftKings PPG with Young out this season (four games), and with the guard off the court, Hunter’s usage ranks second on the Hawks (23.2%), which is a 3.1 percentage point upgrade from his average for the season.
Hunter is simply too cheap for life without Young and needs to be included in your player pool.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Victor Wembanyama vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – $10,100 DraftKings, $11,600 FanDuel
As noted above, the Spurs are coming off a nine-game road trip, and Wembanyama impressed during this grueling stretch, scoring over 50 DraftKings points five times, including a pair of outings with over 70 DraftKings points. The rookie is now back at home for the first time in nearly a month and, unsurprisingly, has been more efficient on his home floor this season, generating 2.2 more DraftKings PPG than when on the road. Wembanyama posted 55 DraftKings points the last time he faced the Thunder and absolutely knows he needs to put up another large stat line tonight to cement his claim as Rookie-of-the-Year over Chet Holmgren for Oklahoma City.
Wembanyama could explode in this long-overdue return to San Antonio and is a player you must have exposure to Thursday.
Top Value: Taylor Hendricks at Orlando Magic – $4,400 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel
Hendricks is a solid value tonight despite this poor matchup vs. the Magic, who rank fourth in defensive efficiency. Hendricks joined the Jazz’s starting lineup three games ago, and with the promotion, the big man has contributed 21.2 DraftKings points in 26.4 minutes per game. Hendricks is scoring 0.8 DraftKings PPM this season, and he could earn some extra playing time tonight if Walker Kessler (questionable, illness) sits.
Nonetheless, Hendricks should be able to out-produce these low salaries and can be considered for all formats.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Chet Holmgren at San Antonio Spurs – 7,900 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel
Holmgren has been brilliant with 45.4 DraftKings PPG in his last five and should be highly motivated tonight to support his case for Rookie-of-The-Year over Wembanyama tonight. Holmgren tallied 40.5 DraftKings points the last time these two clubs met, and as noted above, the Thunder boast the highest implied team total on the slate (123.25 points) in this terrific spot vs. the Spurs.
Holmgren has topped 40 DraftKings points five of the last seven times he has played behind an implied team total of 120 points or greater, and pairing Holmgren and Wembanyama in the same lineup is a totally viable strategy tonight.
Top Value: Brook Lopez at Charlotte Hornets – $5,700 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel
Lopez finished with only 10.75 DraftKings points vs. the Hornets on Tuesday, but this was a product of the Bucks winning this game by 38 points, which limited the veteran to only 23 minutes. Milwaukee is favored by 12 points tonight, but they will be in Charlotte this time, naturally making the game more competitive. Furthermore, before Tuesday, Lopez had been excellent vs. the Hornets, scoring 33.75 DraftKings PPG in his first two matchups of the season against the squad.
Charlotte ranks second-to-last in defensive efficiency, and Lopez is a sneaky GPP play tonight, with FantasyLabs slating him for modest ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
