The NBA returns tonight and DraftKings and FanDuel’s main slates both feature the first 10 games of the night.
The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Tyrese Haliburton vs. Detroit Pistons – $9,400 DraftKings, $9,900 FanDuel
Haliburton is an elite high-end value at these sub-$10,000 salaries. The guard’s price tags on both sites rose above $11,000 earlier this season and he should see no limitations following the All-Star Break. Furthermore, this is an elite matchup for Haliburton.
The Pistons rank 28th in defensive efficiency and eighth in pace, and the Pacers boast the highest implied team total of 129 points this season, which is the largest on the board by nearly six points. Plus, this game’s total is the highest on the slate (246.5 points), via FantasyLabs’ Vegas page.
This season, Haliburton is scoring 48.4 DraftKings PPG in two matchups with Detroit and 50.1 DraftKings PPG in totals of at least 240 points (28 games), via the Trends Tool. Especially at only $9,400 on DraftKings, we may not see the All-Star this cheap again this season.
Top Value: Keyonte George vs. Charlotte Hornets – $4,700 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel
As a starter for the Jazz, George looked great in his final two contests before the All-Star Break, posting 34.25 DraftKings points vs. the Lakers and then a season-high 54 DraftKings points vs. the Warriors. The rookie has already been confirmed to remain a starter for the rest of the season, and during this two-game stretch, George led Utah with 37 minutes per game.
The guard is generating 0.92 DraftKings PPM this season, and with this type of volume in a prime matchup vs. the Hornets – they rank dead last in defensive efficiency this season. George has a ceiling of over 40 fantasy points and is an excellent target for all formats. The Jazz carry the fifth highest implied team total on the slate (120 points) and notably at only $4,700 on DraftKings, the 20-year-old is rating as the best value on the slate for that site in our NBA models.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Donte DiVincenzo at Philadelphia 76ers – $7,700 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel
DiVincenzo (hamstring) will return tonight after missing the final game before the All-Star break, but both Julius Randle (shoulder) and OG Anunoby (elbow) will remain sidelined for the Knicks. Their absences create a massive void, and in DiVincenzo’s past eight starts without both Randle and Anunoby, the former is amassing 42.6 DraftKings points in 40.2 minutes per game with a 24.7% usage rate. Bojan Bogdanovic’s presence might slightly hurt DiVincenzo’s usage going forward, but HC Tom Thibodeau should continue to rely on DiVincenzo tonight and give him over 40 minutes of work, which has been the case in four of his last five starts.
The 76ers rank 28th in defensive rating since losing Joel Embiid (knee) eight games ago, and DiVincenzo should top 40 fantasy points in this spot.
Top Value: Bennedict Mathurin vs. Detroit Pistons – $4,500 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel
Mathurin is an awesome, affordable way to attack the Pacers and their slate-high implied team total (129 points). Aaron Nesmith (ankle) is out, and with both Buddy Hield and Bruce Brown no longer with the Pacers following trades before the All-Star break, Mathurin has been Nesmith’s direct backup and should get the spot start tonight. FantasyLabs is projecting Mathurin for right around 30 minutes tonight against the lowly Pistons, which is more than enough time for him to beat these salaries.
With Nesmith off the floor this season, Mathurin is contributing 0.92 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Miles Bridges at Utah Jazz – $8,900 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel
Bridges is expected to come with low ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel, according to our projections, and is an elite contrarian play. LaMelo Ball (ankle) remains out for the 11th straight, and Bridges has shown huge upside with the guard sidelined, recording at least 49 DraftKings points in four of his past six starts, including a 68 DraftKings points explosion vs. the Raptors. Bridges has handled a 28.7% usage rate this month, and this is a juicy spot for him, with the Jazz ranking dead last in defensive efficiency over their last three games.
As winners of three in a row, the Hornets should make this a competitive game tonight, and Bridges should thrive with over 45 fantasy points.
Top Value: Deni Avdija at Denver Nuggets – 6,800 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel
In his final start before the All-Star Break, Avdija went off for a career-high 71.25 DraftKings points in a difficult matchup vs. the Pelicans, who rank seventh in defensive efficiency. Since the Wizards dealt Daniel Gafford to the Mavs, Avdija has been the primary beneficiary for Washington, amassing 51.3 DraftKings PPG in his first four starts since the deal, despite facing three top-12 ranked defenses in this span. During this time, Avdija has led the Wizards in usage (24.2%) and minutes per game (38.8).
While this Nuggets defense he will face tonight ranks 12th in efficiency, Avdija has been matchup-proof as of late, and he remains far too cheap for his new role as the Wizards’ alpha.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum at Chicago Bulls – $9,900 DraftKings, $10,300 FanDuel
Slated for single-digit ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel, according to our projections, Tatum is an outstanding GPP target. The forward was on a great run before the All-Star Break, posting at least 56 DraftKings points in six of his last nine starts. Particularly as a facilitator, Tatum has really been thriving, with a 28.6% assist rate for the month of February, which leads the Celtics and is a massive increase from his 20.8% average for the season.
The Bulls are an average matchup – they rank 16th in defensive efficiency – but the Celtics are 8.5-point road favorites tonight and when competing as a road favorite this season, Tatum is supplying 52.7 DraftKings PPG (21 games), via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Grant Williams at Utah Jazz – $4,500 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel
Williams has been a perfect fit with the Hornets, providing 31.8 DraftKings PPG in the first three since being traded to the club. Despite coming off the bench, the veteran has ranked third on the team in minutes per game (31.3) and usage rate (21.%) during this time. Furthermore, Williams has closed all three of these games with the starters, has led the Hornets in plus/minus (14.3), and last but not least, Charlotte has won each of these past three games with the ex-Celtic playing a huge role.
Williams’ large workload should absolutely continue tonight, and as noted above, this is a terrific matchup, with the Jazz ranking dead last in defensive efficiency over their last three games. The forward is collecting 1.1 DraftKings PPM in a Hornets’ uniform and is a sensational option at these low salaries, especially when you factor in that we’re’ projecting Williams to come with single-digit ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Kristaps Porzingis at Chicago Bulls – $7,700 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel
With us forecasting him for single-digit ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Porzingis needs to be included in your GPP pool. Porzingis missed the second half of the Celtics’ final game before the All-Star Break, but before this, the big man had scored over 40 DraftKings points in five consecutive starts.
Porzingis has seen a huge 30.5% usage rate this month – which is a huge upgrade from his 24.9% average for the season – and should provide nothing less than 40 fantasy points tonight.
Top Value: Marvin Bagley at Denver Nuggets – $5,300 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel
After seeing limited minutes in his Wizards debut, Bagley has logged 29 minutes per game in his last two as Washington’s starting center, en route to back-to-back double-doubles worth 35.6 DraftKings PPG. The Wizards desperately need Bagley’s size tonight, and with around 30 minutes of work, Bagley is a strong bet to exceed 30 fantasy points.
The veteran is collecting 1.1 DraftKings PPM this season and 39.75 DraftKings PPG for the last five times he has received at least 25 minutes of action.
