Before the start of the All-Star break tomorrow, there is a three-game slate to attack Thursday. The one extra game FanDuel’s slate features is the Clippers vs. the Warriors, which is the final contest of the night.
The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Stephen Curry at Utah Jazz – $9,600 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel
Curry has been on fire, scoring at least 54 DraftKings points in four straight starts while shooting 53.7% from beyond the arc. His high score during this run was a 60 DraftKings point outing vs. the Jazz on Monday, who he will face again tonight. Utah ranks 25th in defensive efficiency and seventh in pace, and they are allowing the most made three-pointers per game this season, making this an elite spot for Curry. Furthermore, this game’s total is the highest on the slate (239.5 points) and no team presents a larger implied team total than the Warriors (121 points), via FantasyLabs’ Vegas page.
Curry has been brilliant with 62.7 DraftKings PPG for the last five times he has played behind an implied team total of at least 120 points and is the best high-end value available for this three-game slate.
Top Value: Keyonte George vs. Golden State Warriors – $4,700 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel
While the Jazz lost to the Lakers without LeBron James (ankle) last night, George was a bright spot in the defeat, leading his team with 34.25 DraftKings points across 33 minutes, which ranked second on Utah, only trailing Lauri Markkanen. George has now eclipsed 30 DraftKings points in three of his past five and has received 31 minutes per game since being inserted into the Jazz’s starting five two games ago.
The rookie simply too cheap for this type of role – George is contributing 0.9 DraftKings PPM this season – and is a compelling, cheap way to gain another share of this slate-high total vs. the Warriors.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Anfernee Simons vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – $7,800 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel
Simons is worth attacking at these sub-$8,000 salaries despite the difficult matchup vs. the Wolves and their league-best defense. Both Malcolm Brogdon (elbow) and Shaedon Sharpe (abdominal) remain sidelined, and for the five starts he has made without both these players, Simons is supplying 45.6 DraftKings PPG. In those contests, the guard’s usage increased by 2.9 percentage points, and his assist percentage rose by 4.7 percentage points via the On/Off Tool.
On top of the expanded role Simons should handle tonight, he will be on his home floor, where he has been nearly 4.0 DraftKings PPG better this season than when on the road. This tough matchup with Minnesota should keep Simons’ ownership in check, and he is a sharp GPP target.
Top Value: Brandin Podziemski at Utah Jazz – $6,100 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel
Podziemski was outstanding in a tough matchup vs. the Clippers last night, posting 49.75 DraftKings points in 32 minutes off the bench. The rookie has now topped 30 DraftKings points six times in his last eight games, and last night was his second performance of 49 DraftKings points during this span. Plus, Wednesday was the second time in the Warriors’ last three games that Podziemski has closed the game with the starters over Klay Thompson.
Golden State is clearly realizing they need to rely on their younger players more, and especially with tonight being their second game in two nights, Podziemski should again see more minutes than Thompson despite the latter being the starter. All in all, Podziemski is underpriced for the volume he has been seeing and can be trusted for all formats.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Anthony Edwards at Portland Trail Blazers – $8,700 DraftKings, $9,300 FanDuel
Facing this same Blazers’ team Tuesday, Edwards went off for 56 DraftKings points, bringing him up to an average of 52.4 DraftKings PPG in his last five starts. The wing played through a questionable tag Tuesday and has been listed as questionable again tonight. If Edwards is able to suit up again, he will bring a similar ceiling to what we saw from him Tuesday, and he may get overlooked, given the questionable tag.
In his last six meetings with Portland, Edwards has recorded at least 45 DraftKings points four times, including a 65.25 DraftKings point explosion.
Top Value: Andrew Wiggins at Utah Jazz – $5,100 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel
Wiggins posted 33.75 DraftKings points last night vs. the Clippers and is now amassing 30.1 DraftKings PPG in his last five. As noted above, the Warriors boast the highest implied team total on the slate tonight (121 points), going against this Jazz team that ranks fifth in pace and 25th in defensive efficiency.
Wiggins should be able to outperform these low salaries in this prime spot and is one of the best forward values on the board.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Jaren Jackson Jr. vs. Milwaukee Bucks – $8,000 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel
After facing back-to-back top-eight defenses in the Rockets and Pelicans, Jackson Jr. is in a strong spot tonight vs. the Bucks, who rank fourth in pace and 18th in defensive efficiency. The forward has led the Grizzlies with a 33.9% usage rate in the new year – which is a notable increase from his 29.7% average for the season – and has exceeded 40 DraftKings points in five of his last 10 starts.
Barring a blowout, Jackson Jr. should excel in this up-tempo vs. the Bucks, and he has a ceiling near 50 fantasy points in our NBA Models.
Update: Jackson Jr. has been downgraded to doubtful due to a quad injury. John Konchar (quad) is also doubtful, while Derrick Rose (ankle) and Scotty Pippen Jr. (back) are out, and Luke Kennard is questionable. Trey Jemison started in place of Jackson Jr. in two straight games earlier this month and produced 20.4 DraftKings PPG with the role. He could start again on Thursday, which would make him a viable punt, but it is not clear if Jemison will be available from the G-League. All in all, Lamar Stevens (below) should see his playing time increase way past his initial projection, making him an even stronger value play.
Top Value: Lamar Stevens vs. Milwaukee Bucks – $3,400 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel
Stevens has quickly made an impact in his first two games with the Grizzlies, scoring 21.75 DraftKings points vs. the Pelicans and then 30 DraftKings points vs. the Rockets, both of which are top-eight defenses in the league this season. Over this time, the veteran has seen a healthy 22.4% usage rate and has logged 23.2 minutes off the bench. While this might not seem like much, Stevens is producing 1.0 DraftKings PPM this season, and he should continue to handle right around 20 minutes for the rest of the season with Memphis extremely understaffed due to many key injuries.
The wing has a strong chance to top 20 fantasy points against this fast-paced Bucks team and has a ton of merit at these cheap salaries.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Rudy Gobert at Portland Trail Blazers – $7,500 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel
Gobert has been great vs. the Blazers this season, generating 44.8 DraftKings PPG in two matchups with the team, and is underpriced for this type of upside. The center has been consistent, posting a double-double of at least 38 DraftKings points in six straight games, and not only does Portland rank 21st in defensive efficiency, but they are allowing the fourth most points in the paint and third most blocks this season.
This is great news for an old-school, defensive-minded center like Gobert, and he can be attacked with confidence tonight.
Top Value: Brook Lopez at Memphis Grizzlies – $5,700 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel
After finishing with only 12.25 DraftKings points in Tuesday’s 26-point blowout loss to the Heat, Lopez should get back on track against this depleted Grizzlies’ team. Memphis ranks 20th in defensive rating over their last 10 games, and before the ugly loss to Miami on Tuesday, Lopez was averaging 33.2 DraftKings PPG in his previous 10 games.
Lopez ranks third in the NBA in blocks per game this season (2.7), and this is a juicy spot for the stout defender, with the Grizzlies yielding the second most blocks in the league. While Lopez is viable on both sites, he is standing out at only $5,700 on DraftKings, which is the cheapest he has been in 14 games.
