The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $12,400 DraftKings, $11,200 FanDuel
Entering a matchup against a Clippers team with a 113.6 defensive rating in the past 10 games, our model gives Doncic a 15% chance of comfortably surpassing the 70 fantasy-point mark on Thursday night. The superstar has eclipsed 60 fantasy points five times in his last six games and has earned the right to be called the top point guard on this slate.
Top Value: Alec Burks vs. Golden State Warriors – $4,800 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel
The matchup isn’t the greatest in the world, but Burks should have a massive opportunity in front of him on Thursday. RJ Barrett is doubtful for this game, and Quentin Grimes is in danger of missing another game due to a sore knee. This should open the door for more playing time for the veteran combo guard, who we’re expecting to see for over 30 minutes tonight.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Devin Booker vs. Milwaukee Bucks – $8,900 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel
The Bucks have ranked in the bottom half of the NBA over the past 10 games in defensive efficiency and are fresh off a 114.9 defensive rating against a slumping Lakers offense. The conditions should be right here for a big Booker game, and our model sets him as the highest-ceiling shooting guard on DraftKings, behind a pair of guys with dual-position eligibility.
Top Value: DeAndre Bembry vs. Washington Wizards – $3,500 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel
Due to the constant uncertainty surrounding the Nets’ stars, Bembry’s price has remained stagnant in this range. The fact is, though, that James Harden and Kevin Durant remain out, and that should open up some playing time for Bembry, who has seen more than 27 minutes in two of his last three. We have him set for enough to get you to 6X.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Jimmy Butler vs. New Orleans Pelicans – $9,300 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel
Butler is in a great bounce-back spot against a Pelicans team he victimized for over 60 fantasy points back in November. His +0.45 Opponent Plus/Minus and his price on FanDuel make him the stronger play over there, but he still projects out as the highest-upside player on DraftKings.
Top Value: Pat Connaughton vs. Phoenix Suns – $3,500 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel
We will touch on the high-scoring nature of this game in a minute, but regardless of the conditions, Connaughton is a solid look on Thursday’s slate. Our model gives him a solid projection near 6X with a hefty 25+ minute night in store, and it’s hard to argue that the sharpshooter won’t see some significant run with George Hill still out and Grayson Allen playing through an injury.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokoumpo vs. Phoenix Suns – $9,000 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel
This game should have plenty of points scored between two teams in the top 10 in pace and two defenses struggling in recent weeks to make stops. Enter Antetokounmpo, who is fresh off an 80-spot against the Lakers and who our model loves to stay hot. We set his ceiling just under 80 fantasy points.
Top Value: Kelly Olynyk vs. Memphis Grizzlies – $3,700 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel
Olynyk is back for Detroit, and he’s been underwhelming to this point in five games. We have the opportunity to get him under $4K, which has finally brought his projected value to a spectacular near-7X. His minute projection is less than you’d like to see, but the Pistons are thin up front. It’s also worth noting that Detroit just traded for Marvin Bagley, so if you want to back a player based on a narrative, it’d be here.
Center
Top Ceiling: Julius Randle vs. Golden State Warriors – $9,100 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel
The Warriors are hurting in the frontcourt, with Draymond Green out and Kevon Looney playing through an injury. They’re going to come in undersized and ill-prepared to deal with Randle, and they also might be a bit fatigued on the second night of a back-to-back, where they’ve struggled this year. Randle is your best option at center on DraftKings if you’re going for ceiling and is just below Bam Adebayo on FanDuel.
Top Value: Alperen Sengun vs. Toronto Raptors – $4,800 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel
The tantalizing big man is projected to go well over 6X by our model, and that’s particularly noteworthy considering he’s out-performed his projected output in each of the last four games with a solid streak of 23 fantasy points or more. Sengun carries a robust +11.27 Projected Plus/Minus into this one on FanDuel and a +8.85 on DraftKings — both the top marks at the position.
