Thursday’s main slate on DraftKings features the first seven games of the night. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Ja Morant vs. Sacramento Kings – $8,700
Morant is a terrific high-end value in this elite setting vs. the Kings. This game’s total is the highest on the slate by five points (241.25 points), and the Grizzlies are only favored by three points. Sacramento ranks 18th in defensive efficiency, and Memphis’ implied team total is the second-largest on the board (122.25 points). Morant is coming off a 44 DraftKings point outing vs. the Mavericks, and the guard logged 31.3 minutes in this tilt, which is the most playing time Morant has seen since missing most of November due to various injuries.
Leading the Grizzlies in usage (33.6%) and assist rate (44.9%), Morant is scoring 1.5 DraftKings PPM this season and for his career, he is producing 46 DraftKings PPG in totals of 240 points or greater (16 games), via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Chris Paul vs. Chicago Bulls – $5,900
The Spurs will be without Victor Wembanyama (back) tonight, which will result in a larger workload for Paul. In the three games Wembanyama has missed this season, Paul has supplied 33.6 DraftKings points in 28.9 minutes per game and his usage has risen 2.8 percentage points to 18.9%, via the On/Off Tool.
Plus, Paul gets arguably the best matchup in the NBA with the Bulls in town. Chicago ranks second in pace and 28th in defensive efficiency, and San Antonio’s implied team total is the fourth-highest on the slate despite missing Wembanyama (119.75 points), which is clear evidence that this matchup with the Bulls is truly elite. Furthermore, this game’s total is the third-highest on the slate (236.5 points), and the Spurs are only favored by two points. Paul should flourish in this environment and is a tremendous value at this sub $6K salary.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
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NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Devin Booker at New Orleans Pelicans – $9,400
Booker has a huge ceiling tonight with Kevin Durant (ankle) and Jusuf Nurkic (thigh) both sidelined for this prime matchup vs. the Pelicans, who rank 26th in defensive efficiency. With Durant and Nurkic off the floor this season, Booker’s usage and assist rate have increased by 3.4 and 1.3 percentage points, respectively, resulting in 1.3 DraftKings PPM for the guard, via the On/Off Tool.
With Durant only available for one half and Nurkic inactive Tuesday vs. the Spurs, Booker posted 53.25 DraftKings points. The guard should have a similar performance tonight and is a strong option.
Top Value: Devin Vassell vs. Chicago Bulls – $5,000
Dealing with knee and foot injuries, Vassell has been eased in this season, but the guard is starting to regain his form. Vassell’s playing time has increased in each of his last three games, peaking at a season-high 27 minutes Tuesday vs. the Suns, which resulted in 34.5 DraftKings points for the wing.
Vassell should see above this number tonight and approach 30 minutes off the bench, and Wembanyama being unavailable is a notable boost for Vassell. The 24-year-old is leading the Spurs with a 27% usage rate with Wembanaya off the court this season, resulting in 1.3 DraftKings PPM for Vassell, which is a huge upgrade from his 1.15 average for the season. Enter in a dream matchup with the Bulls, and Vassell is easily one of the best values on the slate at this affordable salary.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Brandon Miller at New York Knicks – $8,500
With the Hornets depleted, Miller has a ceiling worth chasing in GPPs and he could get overlooked given this season-high salary. LaMelo Ball (calf), Miles Bridges (knee), Grant Williams (knee), and Tre Mann (back) are all out for the fourth straight, and with these key players missing the past three, Miller has led Charlotte with 45.6 DraftKings PPG. Yes, the Knicks did hold Miller to 38 DraftKings points to begin this stretch, but this was an off shooting night for Miller (28%) and the first game of the season he has played without Ball.
Miller has been far more comfortable as the Hornets’ main option since then, and he has 50 DraftKings point upside tonight against this Knicks club that ranks 19th in defensive efficiency.
Top Value: Talen Horton-Tucker at San Antonio Spurs – $3,100
With Coby White (ankle) missing his first game of the season Monday vs. the Nets, Horton-Tucker recorded 21 DraftKings points across 17 minutes off the bench. Lonzo Ball (knee) played in this game but will be joining White on the sidelines tonight, opening up more minutes and usage for Horton-Tucker.
With a 24.8% usage rate – which ranks second only to Zach LaVine for the team – Horton-Tucker is amassing an elite 1.4 DraftKings PPM with both White and Ball off the court this season. While he likely won’t see over 20 minutes, Horton-Tucker doesn’t need much playing time to destroy this near-minimum salary in this strong setting vs. the Spurs, and he is a compelling punt play for all formats tonight.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Jalen Williams at Toronto Raptors – $8,700
As the Thunder’s No.2 option behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams is generating 43.3 DraftKings PPG this season. All of the forward’s rates are at career highs, most notably a 27.2% usage rate, and he is scoring 1.4 DraftKings PPM.
The Raptors rank fifth in pace and 20th in defensive efficiency this season, and Oklahoma City boasts a 118.25-point implied team total in this spot. Williams is supplying 46.2 DraftKings PPG when playing behind an implied team total of at least 115 points this season (12 games), and he is too cheap for his upside at this sub $9K salary.
Top Value: Aaron Gordon at Cleveland Cavaliers – $5,900
Making his second start back from his 10-game absence due to a calf injury Tuesday vs. the Warriors, Gordon saw no limitations and finished with 34.25 DraftKings points across 33 minutes. Two days removed from this start, and with no game tomorrow, Gordon should approach 35 minutes tonight, with the Cavaliers only favored by 4.5 points.
While Cleveland ranks ninth in defensive efficiency, they also rank 12th in pace, and Gordon is vastly underpriced for a likely full workload. This is the cheapest he has been on DraftKings this season and Gordon is scoring 35.4 DraftKings PPG when competing as an underdog the last two seasons (11 games), via the Trends Tool.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic at Cleveland Cavaliers – $12,000
While the Nuggets sit at 11-8 this season, they have an opportunity to prove they are still a legitimate title contender if they can beat the 19-3 Cavaliers in Cleveland on Thursday. Jokic should put his best foot forward in this marquee matchup, and he should finish as this slate’s highest scorer, possibly by a comfortable margin. Even with Gordon back in the lineup for the Nuggets, Jokic has scored at least 69 DraftKings points in back-to-back starts, and he is producing an absurd 1.85 DraftKings PPM this season.
Jokic is scoring 66.3 DraftKings PPG in spreads under five points the last two seasons (40 games) and he is worth paying up for Thursday.
Top Value: Zach Collins vs. Chicago Bulls – $3,500
Fitting in Jokic tonight isn’t difficult with many great punt plays available, and Collins is the best of the group at this low salary. In the three games Wembanyama has missed this season, Collins has started at center for the Spurs and provided 29.5 DraftKings points in 24.5 minutes per game.
The big man is scoring 1.0 DraftKings PPM this season, and this is a sensational matchup vs. the Bulls. Not only does Chicago rank second in pace and 28th in defensive efficiency, they are giving up the most points in the paint in the NBA this season. Collins has the potential to 10x his low salary in this dream spot and he is a must-play for all formats.
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