DraftKings’ main slate for Thursday includes the first seven games of the night. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at Indiana Pacers – $10,300
Gligeous-Alexander is an excellent spend in this juicy spot vs. the Pacers. Indiana ranks eighth in pace and 22nd in defensive efficiency, and this game’s total is the fourth-highest on the slate (227.5 points). Additionally, the Thunder are only favored by 5.5 points.
With a 33% usage rate and 28% assist percentage, Gilgeoues-Alexander is amassing 1.5 DraftKings PPM this season, and in spreads of six points or less, the superstar is producing 58.2 DraftKings PPG (eight games), via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Malcolm Brogdon vs. Charlotte Hornets – $5,300
Kyle Kuzma (ankle) remains out for the Wizards, and Brogdon has stepped up in Kuzma’s absence this season. In the six contests Brogdon has played with Kuzma inactive, the former is averaging 28.1 DraftKings in 25.6 minutes per game with a 25.9% usage rate, via the On/Off Tool. Brogdon is supplying 1.0 DraftKings PPM with Kuzma off the court, and Brogdon is a strong bet to exceed 5x value against this Hornets defense that ranks 20th in defensive efficiency, especially with this game in Charlotte, where Brogdon has been 3.9 DraftKings PPG better this season.
Also, Bilal Couliably (groin) and Alexandre Sarr (back) are both questionable for Washington. If either starter joins Kuzma on the sidelines, Brogdon will be further solidified as a great value play.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
a
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Tyler Herro at Orlando Magic – $7,900
With Jimmy Butler (return to competition reconditioning) doubtful, Herro has the highest ceiling among shooting guards in our ShotQuaility projections and is worth rostering in GPPs, where he will likely get overlooked in this subpar matchup. The Magic rank third in defensive efficiency, but with Butler inactive this season, Herro is leading Miami with 42.6 DraftKings PPG (seven games).
Dru Smith (Achilles) is also out for the season after playing a sizable role recently. With Butler and Smith off the floor this season, Herro’s usage rises 2.2 percentage points to 29.6%, and he is scoring 1.3 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool.
Top Value: Jalen Green at New Orleans Pelicans – $6,300
Green notoriously shines against weak defenses and he is too cheap for his upside against this Pelicans defense that ranks 28th in defensive efficiency. Green torched this same New Orleans club for 48.5 DraftKings points a week ago. Thursday’s game carries a 220.5-point total, which is a higher number for this defensive-minded Houston team.
Green is handling a 26.7% usage rate this season, and the shooting guard has a ceiling of over 40 DraftKings points in this prime spot vs. the Pelicans.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code LABS1.
NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Desmond Bane vs. Toronto Raptors – $6,900
Bane is on the heels of a 46.25 DraftKings point outing vs. the Clippers and the wing gets a much easier matchup tonight vs. the Raptors. Toronto ranks sixth in pace and 23rd in defensive efficiency this season. The Grizzlies carry the highest implied team total on the slate in this elite spot (125.25 points). Marcus Smart (finger) missed Monday’s matchup with the Clippers, and the veteran will remain sidelined Thursday.
Bane has scored at least 46 DraftKings points in two of the past three games he has played sans Smart, and at this $6,900 salary, Bane is an appealing way to attack the Grizzlies on Thursday.
Top Value: Jake LaRavia vs. Toronto Raptors – $4,200
LaRavia is another great value from the Grizzlies on Thursday. As mentioned above, no team competing tonight presents a higher implied team total than Memphis (125.25 points) and LaRavia has benefited greatly with Smart out. In the 12 games the veteran has missed this season, LaRavia has produced 26.5 DraftKings points in 25.5 minutes per game, via the On/Off Tool.
The wing is shooting the ball at an outstanding 50% clip this season – including 46% from beyond the arc – and LaRavia has a ceiling near 30 DraftKings in our ShotQuality projections.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Jalen Johnson vs. Chicago Bulls – $9,000
Johnson has scored at least 43 DraftKings points in four of his past five starts and the forward gets one of the best matchups in the league Thursday with the Bulls in town. Chicago ranks third in pace and 25th in defensive efficiency this season, and this game’s total is the highest on the slate (242.5 points). Plus, the Hawks carry the second-highest implied team total on the board (124.5 points).
With career highs in usage (22.5%) and assist rate (21.5%), Johnson is amassing 1.3 DraftKings PPM this season, and he has exposed the Bulls for 46.9 DraftKings PPG in two matchups. As evident from these results, this is a perfect spot for Johnson, and he is a strong target for all formats. While he feels likely to play, it is worth mentioning Trae Young (heel) is questionable, and if the guard is out, Johnson will become a must-play. With Young off the court this season, Johnson’s usage increases by 4.3 percentage points, and he is leading Atlanta with 1.4 DraftKings PPM.
Top Value: Larry Nance Jr. vs. Chicago Bulls – $5,000
With Onyeka Okongwu (knee) remaining sidelined, Nance Jr. is a compelling, cheap way to attack the Hawks’ huge implied team total. With Okngwu sidelined for the last three, Nance Jr. has operated as Atlanta’s backup center and he has supplied 35.3 DraftKings points in 25.3 minutes per game with this role.
Nance Jr. has been extremely productive this season, averaging 1.2 DraftKings PPM while shooting a career-best 53% on three-pointers, which ranks second in the NBA this season among players who have attempted at least 30 three-pointers. Nance should have no issues exceeding 5x value in this elite spot vs. the Bulls and is a great target for all formats at this affordable salary.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Nikola Vucevic at Atlanta Hawks – $8,300
Vucevic is scoring 44.6 DraftKings PPG in two matchups with the Hawks this season and his success against the club should continue Thursday. With a 23% usage rate, Vucevic is leading the Bulls with 1.3 DraftKings PPM, and with both Chicago and Atlanta ranking top-three in pace this season, this game’s total is the largest on the slate (242.5 points).
Vucevic has eclipsed 40 DraftKings points in six of the eight starts he has played in a total of at least 240 points this season, and the big man is a strong combination of safety and upside Thursday. Also, Ayo Dosunmu (Achilles) and Josh Giddey (ankle) are both questionable and if either of these guards sits, Vucevic will benefit from extra usage and see a boost to his fantasy stock.
Top Value: Zach Edey vs. Toronto Raptors – $5,100
Edey is one of the best values on the slate at this affordable salary. The Grizzlies boast the highest implied team total on the board against the lowly Raptors (125.25 points), and Edey has been the main beneficiary for Memphis with Smart inactive this season. In the the nine games Edey has played with Smart out, Edey is collecting 28.8 DraftKings PPG, via the On/Off Tool.
Edey rejoined the Grizzlies’ starting lineup three games ago, and the rookie is generating 1.2 DraftKings PPM with a 19% usage rate with Smart off the floor. Edey should effortlessly beat this cheap price tag and is a tough fade for all formats Thursday.
