Following the NBA Cup quarterfinals, the NBA’s season regular season continues Thursday with a three-game slate. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Cade Cunningham at Boston Celtics – $9,700
Cunningham has been incredible as of late, scoring 61.25 DraftKings points against the same Celtics team he will face tonight and then 71.5 DraftKings points in a road win over the Knicks. The guard has topped 50 DraftKings points in 11 of his past 14 starts. Cunningham is averaging 1.5 DraftKings PPM this season, with a 31.8% usage rate and 48.5% assist percentage, both of which are career highs.
While the Celtics rank eighth in defensive efficiency, Cunningham has been very successful against Boston, with at least 52 DraftKings points in three of his past four meetings with the defending champions. Cunningham should add another strong outing to his resume vs. the Celtics tonight and is the best spends on the slate.
Top Value: Davion Mitchell at Miami Heat – $4,300
The Raptors received some tough news Wednesday that Scottie Barnes (ankle) will miss several weeks. Immanuel Quickley (elbow) also remains sidelined. With these two starters sidelined, Mitchell should rejoin Toronto’s starting five.
The Raptors have played nine games without Barnes and Quickley this season, and Mitchell started in all of those games, which translated into 25.6 DraftKings points in 32.6 minutes per game for the guard, via the On/Off Tool. The Heat are a mediocre matchup – they rank 11th in defensive efficiency – but Mitchell is underpriced for his expected role as a starter and is one of the better cheap options available for this short slate.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
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NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Malik Monk at New Orleans Pelicans – $7,300
Before the Kings blew out the Jazz by 44 points this past Sunday, which limited Monk to 25.5 DraftKings points in only 26 minutes, the Kentucky product was on a great run, with 44.3 DraftKings PPG in his previous six. Monk’s impressive play forced the Kings’ coaching staff to move him into the starting lineup five games ago, and he should get back to playing over 30 minutes tonight vs. the Pelicans, with Sacramento on the road and only favored by seven points.
The pure scorer is producing 1.1 DraftKings PPM this season, and facing this New Orleans defense that ranks 27th in defensive efficiency, Monk has a ceiling near 50 DraftKings points in our ShotQuality projections.
Top Value: Duncan Robinson vs. Toronto Raptors – $4,200
The Heat have won three straight games, and Robinson has been a huge factor during this streak, ranking third on the team in plus/minus (19.7) and scoring 28.7 DraftKings points in 27.9 minutes per game. The sharpshooter has knocked down 3.3 three-pointers per game during this run, and given Miami’s success, we should continue to see a heavy dose of Robinson tonight vs. the Raptors.
Toronto ranks fifth in pace and 23rd in defensive efficiency, and the Heat carry a season-high implied team total of 117.25 points. Robinson should be able to exceed 5x value in this elite spot. He is one of the best ways to attack Miami at this cheap salary.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Jaylen Brown vs. Detroit Pistons – $8,200
Brown is a solid target tonight that would become a must-play if Jayson Tatum (questionable, knee) misses his second game of the season. Ironically, the forward’s lone absence came last Wednesday against the same Pistons team the Celtics will face tonight. With Tatum inactive, Brown flirted with a triple-double and posted 53.5 DraftKings points.
Brown and Tatum lead the Celtics in usage and when half of this dynamic duo is missing, the other player dominates in an alpha role. In the seven starts Brown has made without Tatum the last two seasons, he has supplied 46.9 DraftKings PPG with a 32.7% usage rate and 18.3% assist percentage. Boston presents the highest implied team on the slate (119.25 points) and Brown will be a core play if Tatum sits.
Top Value: Malik Beasley at Boston Celtics – $5,200
Beasley just posted 36.5 DraftKings points vs. the Celtics last Wednesday, and the veteran has the potential for a similar output for tonight’s rematch with the defending champions. Beasley has recorded at least 34 DraftKings points in three of his past five games and despite coming off the bench, the wing ranks fourth on the Pistons in playing time (28.4 minutes per game) and usage rate this season (21.8%).
Beasley is hitting a career-high 3.7 three-pointers per game, and his salary for tonight is a notable $400 drop from his last game.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Jimmy Butler vs. Toronto Raptors – $7,400
Amid all the rumors that he wants to be traded, Butler should be highly motivated to prove his worth tonight and going forward. The veteran has surpassed 40 DraftKings points in three of his past five starts – including a 42.5 DraftKings point performance vs. the Raptors – and for the season, Butler is generating 1.1 DraftKings PPM with a 21.8% usage rate.
As noted above, the Heat carry their highest implied team total of the season against the fast-paced Raptors tonight (117.25 points) and when Butler has played by an implied team total of 115 points or greater the last two seasons, he has been excellent with 43 DraftKings PPG (12 games), via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Herbert Jones vs. Sacramento Kings – $5,000
Jones is the No.1 power forward value on the slate in our ShotQuality projections and is vastly underpriced. The forward returned to the Pelicans lineup three games ago and has seen heavy minutes with his team depleted, logging 35.3 minutes a night, which has resulted in 32.5 DraftKings per game for Jones.
Brandon Ingram (foot) and Zion Williamson (hamstring) remain sidelined, and in the four starts Jones has made with Ingram and Williamson inactive the last two seasons, he is averaging 32.3 DraftKings PPM. Jones’ salary peaked at $5,800 earlier this season and he should have zero issues beating his $5,000 price tag Thursday against a Kings team that ranks 12th in pace.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Jakob Poeltl at Miami Heat – $7,500
Poeltl has been awesome with Barnes and Quickley inactive this season, producing 45.8 DraftKings points in 34.3 minutes per game (nine games). Behind a 2.8 percentage point upgrade to his usage, Poeltl is amassing 1.3 DraftKings PPM with both Barnes and Quickley off the court this season, via the On/Off Tool.
The Heat do rank 11th in defensive efficiency, but Poeltl has had no problems vs. Miami this season, with him eclipsing 40 DraftKings points in both of his meetings with the club, even with Barnes active for both of these games. With the forward missing from the picture this time around, Poeltl has a ceiling near 50 DraftKings points in our ShotQuality projections and is a no-brainer at less than $8K on DraftKings.
Top Value: Yves Missi vs. Sacramento Kings – $5,000
With both Ingram and Williamson inactive Sunday vs. the Spurs, Missi tallied a double-double worth 43 DraftKings points in 31.4 minutes. The center has been the primary beneficiary for the Pelicans when both Ingram and Williamson have been out this season, with Missi scoring 34.2 DraftKings points in 28 minutes per game in the seven contests Ingram and Williamson have missed together.
Missi’s usage has increased a team-high 4.5 percentage points in those games, and he is far too cheap for his upside against this fast-paced Kings team on Thursday.
