The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Kevin Porter Jr. at San Antonio Spurs – $7,300 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel
On this three-game slate, Porter has the highest ceiling projection of all PGs available, significantly higher than both Damian Lillard and Anfernee Simons, who are more expensive plays at the position on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Part of that is that he’s in the best environment since the Rockets-Spurs game checks in with the highest over/under on our Vegas Dashboard by a significant margin. The Spurs play at the seventh-fastest Pace in the NBA and the fastest on this slate.
Still only 22 years old, Porter is having the best season of his NBA career, averaging 19.0 points, 5.8 assists, 5.7 rebounds, and 1.3 steals per game for an average of 37.33 DraftKings points and 35.74 FanDuel points. He’s carrying a heavy workload with Houston, with his 25.0% usage rate ranking second on the team behind Jalen Green.
Porter has taken at least 16 shots and scored at least 20 points in three of his past four games. He had 40 DraftKings points in his most recent contest on 24 points in Monday’s overtime win over the 76ers.
On this slate, KPJ is a great way to get top-tier production while not having to pay all the way up to the top of the salary structure.
Top Value: Tre Jones vs. Houston Rockets – $6,400 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel
On the other side of that Texas-sized matchup, Jones is a very nice value option at the position and checks in with the highest Projected Plus/Minus of any point guard on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Jones gets a great matchup against the Rockets, who have been very generous to opposing point guards all year.
After Dejounte Murray’s departure this past offseason, Murray has been the Spurs’ starting PG all season and has produced 29.5 DraftKings points and 29.63 FanDuel points while averaging 30.2 minutes. Much of his fantasy production comes from his 6.9 assists per game, which he adds to 12.1 points and 1.5 rebounds per game.
Jones has out-produced salary expectations in three of his past five games, including a massive game two weeks ago against the Lakers, when he dropped 57.2 DraftKings points on 23 points and 13 assists. That’s the kind of ceiling he brings in the mid-tier, but he also brings a relatively safe floor. He has at least 32 DraftKings points in three of his past five and could easily approach and surpass that number on Thursday given this favorable matchup.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Jalen Green at San Antonio Spurs – $6,900 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel
Especially since he’s under $7K on both sites, Green brings a ton of upside to his matchup against the Spurs. As mentioned above, he leads the team in usage rate this season at 27.9%, and he’s projected for 27.8% usage in this contest, which is the third-highest among the shooting guards on this slate on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel. He has the second-highest ceiling projection at shooting guard, trailing only Paul George.
On the season, he has averaged 21.6 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 4.0 assists, producing 0.98 DraftKings points per minute. Green has exceeded salary-based expectations in four of his past seven games, including his most recent game, in which he dropped 27 points and seven assists on his way to 41.0 DraftKings points.
He has been in a little bit of a shooting slump, going 0-for-12 from three-point range in his two most recent games. However, he still has over 40 DraftKings points in four of his past seven contests and has shown the ability to go off for massive nights, especially against lower-echelon teams like the Spurs.
Top Value: Bruce Brown at Portland Trail Blazers – $6,200 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel
Especially on FanDuel, Brown offers very nice value in this matchup against Portland. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all shooting guards and the third-highest on the entire slate on FanDuel. He’s also in the top 10 in that metric at shooting guard on DraftKings, where he brings the added flexibility of small forward eligibility.
While the Nuggets have dealt with multiple injuries and illness issues this season, Brown has been one of the steadying forces for the team and has become a key contributor due to his versatility and steady production. Brown has delivered over 25 DraftKings points in four of his past five games and exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his past 10 on FanDuel.
Brown has started nine of Denver’s last 13 contests and averaged 33 minutes per game, contributing 12.9 points, 6.1 rebounds, 5.2 assists, and 1.4 steals for 32.0 DraftKings points per game. As a complementary offensive option, he can sometimes go through scoring droughts, but he produced across enough categories that he’s still a solid play.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Keldon Johnson vs. Houston Rockets – $7,600 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel
Johnson has the highest ceiling projection at small forward on both DraftKings and FanDuel, ahead of more prominent names like George and Jimmy Butler. Since he’s doing his work for the off-the-radar Spurs, he can sometimes get overlooked as an elite fantasy option, but the smaller slate gives us an excellent chance to focus on his emergence.
In his fourth year with the Spurs, he’s posting a team-high 28.1% usage rate, which is almost a full five percentage points higher than any other player on the team. He has produced 31.87 FanDuel points and 33.73 DraftKings points in his 32.3 minutes per game, with a diverse average stat line of 20.4 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 3.1 assists per game.
On Sunday, he had 27 points and 38.25 DraftKings points in 33 minutes, giving him at least that many DraftKings points in three of his past four games. He has a high ceiling with a game over 50 DraftKings points in that span, and he should thrive in this matchup with the Rockets.
Top Value: Caleb Martin at Los Angeles Clippers – $5,000 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel
The Heat have been frustratingly hard to figure out all season with a revolving door of rotations and injuries. Martin has emerged as one of their regular producers, though, with his multifaceted game offering a lot of flexibility to fill in gaps where needed.
On this slate, he has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at small forward on FanDuel behind just Johnson and the sixth-highest on DraftKings, where he has been priced up a little bit.
Martin had a nice run of six straight games with double-digit points scored before his most recent outing when he struggled to 1-of-7 shooting from the field and only three points against the Pistons. In those six previous games, though, he averaged 16.7 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 1.7 assists and went for over 44 DraftKings points twice. While the return of Butler makes him less of an offensive centerpiece, he still should get plenty of chances to contribute and produce in this matchup against the Clippers. The minutes and chances are still there for him to return value.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Jimmy Butler vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $8,600 DraftKings, $9,900 FanDuel
When Butler has played this season, he has been very productive, which is why he has the highest ceiling projection at power forward on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel. Butler is questionable for this contest due to “return to competition conditioning,” and the Heat have muddied the waters enough with their injury reports all season to totally obscure exactly what that means.
If he plays, though, Butler is definitely an option to consider. He went off for 52.25 DraftKings points in his return last weekend against the Celtics and then produced another strong game with 37.5 DraftKings points against the Grizzlies on Monday. He took Tuesday off, so it makes sense that he’d be ready to return and carry the load again for Miami, but be sure to have a clear direction and a backup plan just in case.
He’s averaging over 42 DraftKings and FanDuel points per game when available, so his availability will have a huge impact on a slate this size.
Top Value:
Tari Eason at San Antonio Spurs – $4,300 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel
Full disclosure: I have been captivated by Eason’s upside since he went crazy in the Summer League. The first-round pick from LSU has been getting more run in Houston’s offense lately and brings an intriguing set of skills to Houston’s athletic young core.
Eason has scored at least nine points in three straight games and posted 28.5 and 34.5 DraftKings points in his last two games. Whether he’s ready for a full breakout remains to be seen, but he continues to flash fantasy potential when given the opportunity with his ability to contribute stack defensive stats and three-pointers.
He’s a small forward on FanDuel and a power forward on DraftKings, and he ranks third in projected Plus/Minus in both. I’m ready to buy into the “Bucket from the Bayou” on this slate and think he has the potential to be a breakout fantasy contributor the rest of the way.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic at Portland Trail Blazers – $11,300 DraftKings, $11,500 FanDuel
Jokic has the highest projected ceiling on this slate by a wide margin. On DraftKings, his ceiling projection is almost 20 points higher than any other center on the board.
He’s coming off a little bit of a down game against the Mavericks on Tuesday, finishing with only 41.5 DraftKings points. Before that down game, though, the Joker had been doing his thing, posting seven straight games with over 50 DraftKings points. Over that span, he averaged 27.7 points, 11.3 rebounds, 8.9 assists, and 1.0 steals and posted three games with over 60 DraftKings points and even a ceiling game with over 70 DraftKings points against the Pelicans.
On a small slate like this, his ceiling is too high to ignore, and he hits it regularly enough that overlooking him is often disastrous. It also helps that he gets a favorable matchup against the Trail Blazers.
Top Value: Charles Bassey vs. Houston Rockets – $3,600 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel
With Jeremy Sochan (quad) and Jakob Poeltl (knee) still sidelined, the Spurs will remain very thin up front, and Bassey should be set up for significant minutes off the bench once again. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all centers on DraftKings and the sixth-highest on FanDuel, where he’s over $1,000 more expensive.
Bassey played 21 and 20 minutes in his two most recent games, producing 28.75 and 16.75 DraftKings points. When he has gotten minutes, he has regularly turned in around 20 fantasy points, which is enough to make him an excellent value to consider in lineups without Jokic.
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