The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic vs. Houston Rockets – $12,000 DraftKings, $12,400 FanDuel
After a historic performance on Tuesday, Doncic and the Mavs host Houston in another great matchup. He has the highest ceiling projection of any player on the slate by a margin of over 13 DraftKings points and 10 FanDuel points. He actually has a positive projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel, which is very unusual for a player priced over $12K and indicates he’s still a strong value.
Against the Knicks on Tuesday, Doncic had the first ever 60-20-10 triple-double in NBA history and finished with an unreal 110.75 DraftKings points and 105.2 FanDuel points. While that level of production is unprecedented, he has been in a great groove lately, with over 55 FanDuel points in four straight games while averaging 41.8 points, 11.8 rebounds, 9.8 assists, and 2.5 steals in 41.4 minutes per game.
He and the Mavs just visited Houston last week, and Luka had 50 points, 10 assists, eight rebounds, three steals, and 82 DraftKings points. His 37.1% usage rate is third in the NBA, and his projected usage of 38.1% is the highest of any player on Thursday’s six-game slate.
Even though he probably won’t drop triple-digit fantasy points again, he has an extremely high ceiling and has to be considered a building block since he has been smashing slates with such regularity lately.
Top Value: Miles McBride at San Antonio Spurs – $3,200 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel
Another matchup in the Lone Star State that looks favorable, especially for some value plays, is the Knicks’ trip to San Antonio to take on the Spurs. With R.J. Barrett (finger) out after leaving early in Tuesday’s game with a finger laceration, there will be plenty of extra minutes and usage available for his teammates. Jalen Brunson (hip) also missed Tuesday’s game and is questionable for this contest with the same hip soreness.
As a result, McBride is one of several Knicks with a great projected Plus/Minus in this contest. The Knicks have the third-highest implied team total of the 12 teams in action, and they have very favorable Opponent Plus/Minus marks across the board since the Spurs rank last in the NBA in defensive rating.
McBride has the third-highest projected Plus/Minus of all point guards and the second-highest projected Plus/Minus of all shooting guards on DraftKings, where his salary is still barely more than the minimum. On FanDuel, he did get a bigger bump and is only eligible at point guard, but he can still be considered as a cheap play, especially if Brunson joins Barrett on the sideline.
The 22-year-old out of West Virginia is in his second year with the Knicks but has played a minimal role, averaging just 11 minutes over his first 22 games and not even appearing in 12 of New York’s games. On Tuesday, though, McBride started the second half in Barrett’s spot and played 46 minutes in the overtime loss. He shot just 1-of-9 from long range and 4-of-14 from the field but produced 22.7 FanDuel points on 14 points, two steals, a rebound, and an assist. With Barrett out, he appears to be lined up for lots of time, and this juicy matchup makes him hard to pass up with such a small salary.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Donovan Mitchell at Indiana Pacers – $8,600 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel
Spida brings the highest ceiling projection at shooting guard on DraftKings and the third-highest on FanDuel, where Luka and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are eligible at the position but come at much higher salaries. Mitchell has had a few quiet nights lately while Darius Garland has been scoring more, but he should be poised to bounce back in a big way against the Pacers, who play at the sixth-fastest pace in the NBA and give Mitchell and the Cavs the most significant Pace Differential of any team on this slate.
Mitchell has had a tremendous first year in Cleveland, averaging a career-best 28.5 points along with 4.5 assists, 3.8 rebounds, and 1.4 steals per game. During the season, he has exceeded salary-based expectations 52% of the time and averaged 1.21 DraftKings points and 1.16 FanDuel points per minute.
He has gone off for over 47 DraftKings points in three of his past seven games, including a December 16 matchup with the Pacers in which he piled up 41 points and 51.75 DraftKings points. He has that kind of ceiling again on Thursday.
Top Value: Immanuel Quickley at San Antonio Spurs – $5,000 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
With Barrett off the floor, Quickley’s usage jumps from 20.0% to 21.4%, and it gets up to 24.4% when Brunson is off the floor as well. As a result of the expected extra work, Quickley has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate on FanDuel and the highest on DraftKings. He’s eligible at both guard spots on both sites, so he can fit into almost any roster build and has to be considered since he is in such a smash spot.
Even before the Barrett injury, Quickley was trending the right way. He had scored double-digit points in four straight games and averaged 24.1 FanDuel points in 25.0 minutes per contest. He took things to another level on Tuesday, though, with Barrett and Brunson out. Quickley ended up playing 51 minutes in the overtime loss and producing a huge stat line with 15 assists, 13 points, three rebounds, and a steal for 41.1 FanDuel points and 42.75 DraftKings points.
If Brunson is back, Quickley will likely take on more of an off-the-ball scoring role instead of playing quite so much point guard, but either way, his strong showing should earn him more work on the ball. Since Barrett’s absence will vacate so much usage, Quickley should be set up for success in San Antonio.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $10,300 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel
On both DraftKings and FanDuel, Tatum has the highest ceiling projection of all small forwards, with a slight edge over his teammate Jaylen Brown. His ceiling projection is the fifth-highest of any player on the whole slate as he continues his breakout campaign.
Tatum has vaulted himself into MVP consideration and the discussion of the best players in the league with a fantastic start to the season. He is averaging 31.1 points, 8.1 rebounds, 4.1 assists, and 1.2 steals for 51.87 DraftKings points and 50.57 FanDuel points per game. While he has been very consistent all season, he has also been heating up lately, with at least 30 points in six straight games. During that run, he averaged 37.5 points, 7.3 rebounds, 4.5 assists, and 1.5 steals.
He did have a double-double with 20 points and 11 rebounds in the Celtics’ last meeting with the Clippers, but Los Angeles handed Boston a 20-point loss. Look for the Celtics to be out to avenge that defeat on their home court as they look t continue a successful holiday homestand.
Top Value: Jalen Williams at Charlotte Hornets – $5,000 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel
As we move into the frontcourt looking for value, one matchup leaps out above the rest that we haven’t touched on yet. The Thunder and the Hornets both come with lots of value options in what should be a high-scoring game since both teams play fast and have a very suspect defense. LaMelo Ball and Gilgeous-Alexander going toe-to-toe in the backcourt should be tons of fun, but they’re expensive. There is great value in their supporting cast, though, since the teams check in with the top two implied team totals on the entire slate, and the game has the highest over/under by a margin of 10 points.
One of the midrange options I like the most is Williams, who was the Thunder’s pick at No. 12 overall in last year’s draft and is putting together a solid rookie campaign. He has started eight straight games for OKC, averaging 32 minutes per game. He had a weird one-point outlier against the Grizzlies during that stretch, but other than that game, he has scored at least 11 points in each contest, averaging 12.4 points, 5.0 rebounds, 3.3 assists, and 0.8 blocked shots per game.
Williams has exceeded salary-based expectations in five of his past eight games and is coming off one of his best games of the season. On Tuesday against the Spurs, he finished with 39.3 FanDuel points on 15 points, nine rebounds, three assists, two blocks, and a steal in 31 minutes. With Aleksej Pokusevski (leg) out a while, Williams could have even more work available as he continues to try and cement his place as a core piece for OKC.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Julius Randle at San Antonio Spurs – $9,500 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel
The impact of the absence of Barrett stretches to the New York frontcourt as well, making Randle one of the highest-ceiling plays on the whole slate. Randle has the highest ceiling projection of all power forwards on DraftKings and also offers the second-highest projected Plus/Minus. On FanDuel, he has the highest projected Plus/Minus at both power forward and center and the highest ceiling projection at both positions as well. In all those projections, Brunson is assumed to be playing, too, so Randle would get a bump to be an even better play with more work coming his way if Brunson misses a second straight game.
After a miserable year last year, Randle has bounced back nicely and has been on a very strong run lately. He has at least 29 points in four straight games and at least 25 points in nine of his past 11. During those 11 games, he has averaged 27.9 points, 12.2 rebounds, 4.0 assists, and 37.3 minutes per game. He has eight double-doubles during that span and has hit for at least 48 DraftKings points in nine of them.
Randle has exceeded salary-based expectations on both FanDuel and DraftKings in nine of his past 10 contests and has an impressive +9.47 average Plus/Minus on FanDuel over that span. Even without any absences on his team, he would be a strong play, but given his extra work and great matchup, he becomes one of the top plays in just about every model.
Top Value: P.J. Washington at Oklahoma City Thunder – $5,300 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel
The Hornets have two of the top three power forwards in projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings in Washington and teammate Gordon Hayward. On FanDuel, Washington is PF/C eligible and has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus at power forward behind only Randle and third-highest at center behind Randle and Mike Muscala. He should be set up for success against the Thunder’s depleted frontcourt.
Washington showed promising signs of breaking out on the Hornets’ recent six-game road trip. He had big games against the Lakers and Blazers, posting 45.25 DraftKings points on 24 points in Los Angeles last Friday and 22 points and 38.5 DraftKings points on Monday in Portland. He did have a quieter game against the Warriors on Tuesday with just 24.5 DraftKings points, but the Warriors often mess with opposing big men in unique ways.
Overall this season, Washington has been hit-or-miss, but this looks like a spot he could go off and produce big-time value from his mid-range salary.
Center
Top Ceiling: Pascal Siakam vs. Memphis Grizzlies – $10,200 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel
There is no center on the slate that comes close to matching Siakam’s ceiling on DraftKings, and only Randle is in the same stratosphere on FanDuel. His ceiling projection is 14 DraftKings points higher than any other center and 12 FanDuel points higher than any other option except Randle.
Siakam has been racking up big numbers lately for the Raptors, playing over 40 minutes in each of their last four games. The versatile big man has averaged 38.0 points, 10.0 rebounds, 6.8 assists, 1.3 steals and 0.5 blocked shots for 62.1 FanDuel points and 63.8 DraftKings points over those four games. He dropped 52 points in one of those games against Randle’s Knicks, and in another, he had a 38-point, 15-rebound double-double against the 76ers.
Even though the Grizzlies aren’t an ideal matchup for a center, Siakam brings enough upside that he’s still the top ceiling play at the position by a wide margin.
Top Value: Mike Muscala vs. Charlotte Hornets – $3,400 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel
Let’s go to the other end of the salary spectrum and go with an ultra-cheap play to round out this preview. The veteran big man isn’t a super-spicy pick or an exciting emerging option, but he is a play that makes a lot of sense in this matchup with the Hornets. He has the highest projected Plus/Minus at center on DraftKings, where he also brings the second-highest projected Plus/Minus on the whole slate. On FanDuel, he has the third-highest projected Plus/Minus and the top mark at center.
Muscala is expected to help pick up some of Pokusevski’s minutes and was already proving to be a serviceable punt play. In the Thunder’s past four games, he has played at least 15 minutes and has over 15 DraftKings points in each game. On Tuesday against the Spurs, he had 19 points, six rebounds, 35 DraftKings points, and 35.2 FanDuel points in a season-high 21 minutes.
Coach Mark Daigneault’s rotations can sometimes be a little hard to follow as the team balances so many developmental priorities, but Muscala should stay involved enough to be a solid value if you go cheap at this spot on Thursday.
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