The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: CJ McCollum vs. San Antonio Spurs – $7,500 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel
On the two-game Thursday slate, the Pelicans and Jazz are significantly favored over the Spurs and Wizards, respectively. Those two teams bring most of the higher ceiling options, including McCollum, who has the highest ceiling projection of all the PG on the slate by 17 DraftKings points and 16 FanDuel points. A great matchup with the Spurs definitely helps, and it’s an excellent spot to lean into the Pelicans since they have a 0.9 Pace Differential against the Spurs, who play at the eighth-fastest Pace in the NBA.
McCollum also gets a significant boost from the absence of Zion Williamson (health and safety protocols). When he and Brandon Ingram (toe) have been off the floor, McCollum garners a 30.8% usage rate, the highest of all players who have played multiple games in that scenario. More usage gives him an even higher ceiling and could lead to a monster game.
The Pelicans’ guard is especially valuable on DraftKings, where he seems underpriced and checks in with the highest projected Plus/Minus of all point guards despite having the highest salary at the position.
Since returning from a four-game absence due to injury, McCollum has averaged 18.6 points, 5.2 assists, 4.8 rebounds, and 35.5 minutes per game. He has heated up more recently, though, with at least 27 points in four of his five most recent contests, exceeding salary-based expectations in each of those four contests, including his most recent game on Monday when he had 31 points, nine assists, eight rebounds, 51.1 FanDuel points, and 56 DraftKings points in a loss to the Bucks.
Top Value: Tre Jones at New Orleans Pelicans – $6,500 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel
Jones has the third-highest projected Plus/Minus of all point guards on DraftKings and the highest on FanDuel, just edging out McCollum for the top spot in that category. Jones has scored at least nine points in 13 games, but most of his production comes from his non-scoring numbers as the Spurs’ chief creator in the backcourt. He has averaged 6.5 assists per game to go with his 13.7 points per game over that nine-game stretch.
Jones had to step up and carry a little more of the offense without Keldon Johnson (hamstring), who is doubtful on Thursday. Johnson leads the team with a 28.3% usage rate, so like with Zion, he’ll leave lots of valuable fantasy work for the rest of his teammates to absorb.
Overall, Jones is a steady producer who brings good value and low risk, but he can also pop for a big game every once in a while. At the end of November, he hit the 50-fantasy-point plateau with a 23-point, 12-assist game against the Lakers, so you’re also not giving up on a high ceiling if you slot him into a guard spot as a value option.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Devin Vassell at New Orleans Pelicans – $7,400 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel
Vassell has the highest ceiling of any shooting guard on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel, behind only McCollum. Vassell is second to Johnson on the Spurs in terms of usage with his 24.2% usage rate, and that jumps to 26.9% with Johnson off the floor.
On Monday without Johnson, Vassell poured in 26 points in 29 minutes while adding five assists and four rebounds for 42 DraftKings points and 39.3 FanDuel points. He has at least 13 points in 14 straight games dating back to mid-November and usually chips in good non-scoring numbers as well, although usually not approaching a double-double.
The added scoring responsibility gives him the highest ceiling of any shooting guard on Thursday’s two-game slate, but it is worth keeping an eye on the situation in Washington. Kristaps Porzingis (illness) is questionable, and if he’s ruled out, Bradley Beal will get a big bump, so check back in the models for updated projections if Porzingis is out.
Top Value: Malik Beasley vs. Washington Wizards – $5,200 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel
Beasley brings the fourth-highest projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard on FanDuel and the seventh-highest at the position on DraftKings. He has fit in beautifully to his role off the bench for the Jazz this season and is a solid midrange source of value from the “other game” on this slate that isn’t expected to get nearly as much fantasy attention.
Due to his role as “instant offense” off the bench, Beasley can sometimes run hot and cold. He had a woeful 1-for-10 shooting performance against Cleveland on Monday but bounced back with a much more typical performance of 17 points and 22.25 DraftKings points on Tuesday. He has scored at least 17 points in seven of his past eight games, with that Cleveland game the only outlier. His high point during that run was a 23-point game against his former team, the Timberwolves, and in that game, he finished with 35.5 DraftKings points.
His production is primarily due to his scoring, but he brings enough of a ceiling if his shot gets hot to be a strong play on this slate.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Lauri Markkanen vs. Washington Wizards – $8,300 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel
The Jazz have the highest Implied Team Total on the slate, so even though it makes sense to lean into the Pels-Spurs matchup, don’t exclude high-ceiling options like Markkanen. The Finnish forward has fit in fabulously with the Jazz and has shown the ability to live up to the hype he got as a top-10 draft pick in 2017.
On the season, Markkanen is averaging 39.05 DraftKings points and 37.39 FanDuel points in 33.9 minutes per game. He’s coming off one of his best games of the season on Tuesday when he knocked down nine three-pointers on his way to 38 points against the Pistons. Markkanen added five rebounds, an assist, and a steal to total 51.75 DraftKings points and 47.5 FanDuel points while leading Utah to a 15-point road victory. He has made at least three three-pointers in four straight games and has over 37 DraftKings points in eight of his past nine games.
Markkanen’s scoring potential and the favorable matchup with Washington give him the highest ceiling projection at both small forward and power forward on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Top Value: Trey Murphy IIl vs. San Antonio Spurs – $4,800 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel
The forward spot for the Pelicans is a little tricky to figure out but will offer plenty of value without Zion in the mix. Herbert Jones will get plenty of playing time and more opportunities, but he is more of a defense-first player who can sometimes be a fantasy letdown. Murphy is the flipside of that, offering plenty of offensive upside, especially when his shot gets going from long range. Murphy has already been getting more run with Ingram out and will now take on even more usage without Zion. As a result, he has the highest projected Plus/Minus of any shooting guard on this slate on DraftKings and the third-highest projected Plus/Minus at small forward on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Murphy has started each of the last 11 games for the Pelicans and has a 17.3% usage rate during that time, averaging 12.7 points, 4.2 rebounds, 1.5 assists, and 1.2 steals per contest.
He is coming into this matchup after a few down games since he has taken a little more of a back seat while Zion carried the load. He should be lined up for more chances in this matchup with the Spurs, and his streaky shooting gives him a high ceiling since more opportunities should be available for him.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Kyle Kuzma at Utah Jazz – $8,700 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel
If Porzingis is out, Kuzma makes a lot of sense as a ceiling play. On DraftKings, he has the second-highest ceiling projection of all power forwards, while on FanDuel, he has the third-highest ceiling projection at both small forward and power forward. Those projections are with Porzingis, too, so there is even more potential depending on how ready Porzingis is to contribute.
Kuzma has had a great road trip and has exceeded salary-based expectations on both DraftKings and FanDuel in four of his past seven. In those seven games, he has averaged 24.9 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 3.9 assists.
He has been even better in his two most recent games. In L.A. on Sunday, Kuzma had 22 points, 16 rebounds, and 50.5 DraftKings points against his former team, the Lakers. He followed that up with 29 points, six boards, six assists, and 51 DraftKings points when the Wizards knocked off the Suns by three in Phoenix. Kuzma makes a nice ceiling play at power forward as the trip continues in Utah.
Top Value: Naji Marshall vs. San Antonio Spurs – $3,700 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel
Marshall has the highest projected Plus/Minus of any player at any position on this slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel. That makes him a great source of value and probably one of the most widely owned players as well. It’s worth eating the chalk, though, since he comes with so much upside while Zion is out.
On FanDuel, Marshall is only eligible at small forward, but on DraftKings, he can slot into either forward spot. He’s projected to be a slightly better value on both sites than his teammate Murphy, but both definitely deserve strong consideration.
Marshall’s role and production can bounce around for the Pelicans, but he has shown a high ceiling on several occasions over the past month. He has averaged 10.9 points, 3.2 rebounds, 2.7 assists, and 1.1 steals in 25.5 minutes per game over the past nine games. He has produced double-digit points in six of those games and has exceeded salary-based expectations on DraftKings in six of his past eight games. That production has all come with his usual workload, but he should get a significant increase in opportunity with Zion out, raising both his floor and his ceiling.
Center
Top Ceiling: Jonas Valanciunas vs. San Antonio Spurs – $6,000 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel
On both FanDuel and DraftKings, Valanciunas has the second-highest ceiling projection at center, behind only Porzingis. Without Zion and Ingram on the floor, Valanciunas has a 27.2% usage rate, and he should be set to go off against a Spurs frontcourt that has been a favorable matchup for opposing centers.
Valanciunas has been a little up-and-down this season with a role that fluctuates wildly from game to game, but he reminded everyone of his ceiling with a massive game on Monday, producing 37 points, 18 rebounds, and 73 DraftKings points in his best fantasy game of the season. He can go off in any matchup and could be poised to do so tonight.
There is also some risk, though, since he had been held under 27 DraftKings points in five straight games before that massive performance. The big game alone probably wouldn’t be enough to make him a good play, but when joined with Zion’s absence, he’s hard to overlook on this small slate.
Top Value: Zach Collins at New Orleans Pelicans – $4,900 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel
While Valanciunas has the highest projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel at the position, Collins is second and not that far behind. Going with Collins as a contrarian play to fade the Valanciunas chalk makes sense if you need the salary difference to upgrade other spots.
Collins doesn’t bring nearly the same high ceiling as Valaciunas, but he has been very consistent for the Spurs lately. He has at least nine points and six rebounds in five straight games, averaging 11.6 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 3.6 assists with over 21 FanDuel points and 22 DraftKings points in each of those games.
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