For tonight, DraftKings and FanDuel are running two different slates. DraftKings’ main slate includes the first six games, while FanDuel’s includes the first seven. As a result, the Lakers vs. Wolves game is not included in DraftKings’ main slate this evening.
The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Ja Morant vs. Indiana Pacers – $9,500 DraftKings, $9,800 FanDuel
In his anticipated return from his suspension, Morant shined Tuesday, pouring in 57 DraftKings points vs. the Pelicans. Not only did the guard log 34.5 minutes, but Morant saw a massive 42.3% usage rate in the win. In his second start back tonight, Morant’s playing time should increase, and this is a perfect matchup for him.
The Pacers are playing their second game in two nights, leading the league in pace and rank 28th in defensive efficiency. Morant dominates in up-tempo matchups, and not only does this game carry the highest total on the slate (247 points). No team boasts a higher implied team total than the Grizzlies on Thursday (125.25 points), via FantasyLabs’ Vegas page.
Morant owns a career average of 46.7 DraftKings PPG in totals of 240 points or greater (14 games) – via the Trends Tool – and is a core play for this slate at these sub $10K salaries.
Top Value: Josh Giddey vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $6,100 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel
Giddey has been stuffing the stat sheet recently, scoring over 40 DraftKings points in three of his past four starts. For the season, the guard is handling a 24% usage rate and a 23.9% assist percentage, resulting in 1.1 DraftKings PPM. The Clippers are on the back end of a back-to-back set, and the Thunder’s implied team total is set a large 120.25 points.
Giddey is providing 32.9 DraftKings PPG when playing behind an implied team total of at least 120 points this season and is an excellent GPP play. In his last two starts, Giddey has been less than 5% owned in DraftKings main GPP of the night.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Cade Cunningham vs. Utah Jazz – 8,600 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel
This is a huge tilt for the Pistons. They have dropped 24 games in a row – the NBA record is 28 – and tonight is the best chance they have seen to get a win in a long time, hosting the 10-18 Jazz, who are depleted and will be playing their second game in two nights. For the season, Utah ranks 25th in defensive efficiency. Detroit is only a one-point underdog for this matchup, and as the team’s best player, Cunningham should see big minutes and put up a huge stat line. The guard leads the Pistons with a 30.6% usage rate and a 32% assist percentage, resulting in 1.1 DraftKings PPM.
In addition to the tight spread, this game’s total is up to 235.5 points. Cunningham has been more productive on his home floor this season, and for the two occasions he has competed at home and in a total of at least 235 points, the 22-year-old is producing 43.6 DraftKings PPG, via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Talen Horton-Tucker at Detroit Pistons – $7,000 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel
With Jordan Clarkson (thigh) and Keyonte George (foot) sidelined, Horton-Tucker has started the last two games and been awesome with the role, generating 42.75 DraftKings points in 30.3 minutes per game. The veteran has ranked second on the team in usage in these last two (26.4%), and that number could grow further tonight if Lauri Markkanen is rested, with this being the second of a back-to-back for the Jazz. The forward just recently returned from a lengthy absence due to a hamstring injury and sat out the second game of a back-to-back set for Utah last week.
Nonetheless, Horton-Tucker’s role is going to be immense with both Clarkson and George unavailable, and this is a great spot, with the Pistons ranking 26th in defensive efficiency. With those two guards off the floor this season, Horton-Tucker is supplying 1.1 DraftKings PPM with a 25.4% usage rate and a team-high 29.9% assist percentage, via the On/Off Tool.
Update: Along with Markkanen, Horton-Tucker has been ruled out Thursday. The Jazz now become extremely shorthanded and in this situation, Collin Sexton is an easy choice. With Markkanen, Horton-Tucker, Clarkson and George off the floor this season, Sexton leads the Jazz with a 27% usage rate and 1.43 DraftKings PPM. Kris Dunn should also start in this situation and makes for a compelling value play, with him scoring 0.9 DraftKings PPM sans those four players.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: DeMar DeRozan vs. San Antonio Spurs – $8,400 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel
DeRozan has played well against the Spurs since joining the Bulls, averaging 44 DraftKings PPG in five matchups, and is fresh off a 51.75 DraftKings points outing vs. the Lakers last night. The veteran is now amassing 44.8 DraftKings PPG in these past nine he has played sans Zach LaVine (foot). The guard remains out tonight, and San Antonio is a tremendous spot, with the club ranking third in pace and 24th in defensive efficiency.
DeRozan is a safe investment for over 40 fantasy points tonight and a compelling value at these price points.
Top Value: Bojan Bogdanovic vs. Utah Jazz – $6,700 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel
Just like with Cunningham, Bogdanovic should see heavy minutes with the Pistons looking to snap their lengthy losing streak tonight. The veteran only trails Cunningham in usage for the Pistons this season and is shooting an efficient 42% from beyond the arc while gunning 7.4 threes per game. No team in the NBA is allowing more made threes per game than the Jazz, and let’s not forget they are Bogdanovic’s former team.
The sharpshooter has surpassed 40 DraftKings points twice in his eight starts this season and brings that type of upside in this meaningful tilt.
NBA DFS Power Forward Pick
Top Ceiling: Paolo Banchero at Milwaukee Bucks – $8,200 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel
Banchero has been inconsistent as of late, but that factor should translate into low ownership, and this is a great spot to peruse his ceiling in GPPs. Banchero leads the Magic usage this season (28.2%), and the Bucks rank fourth in pace and 19th in defensive efficiency. The Duke product went off for 51.75 DraftKings points in his first meeting of the season with the Bucks, and this game’s total is the third-highest on the slate (236.5 points).
Furthermore, Milwaukee is a seven-point favorite, and Banchero has recorded at least 41 DraftKings points in three of his past four starts when playing as an underdog.
Top Value: Patrick Williams vs. San Antonio Spurs – $6,500 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel
Williams is an appealing option tonight, especially at less than $6,000 on FanDuel. With LaVine missing these past 10, Williams has supplied 27.2 DraftKings PPG, and with LaVine off the floor this season, Williams’ production has increased to 0.83 DraftKings PPM.
As mentioned above, this is a prime matchup for the Bulls, with the Spurs ranking third in pace and 24th in defensive efficiency, and against the club earlier this month, Williams posted 37 DraftKings points with LaVine inactive.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Nikola Vucevic vs. San Antonio Spurs – 8,100 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel
The Spurs are an outstanding spot for Vucevic. On top of ranking third in pace and 24th in defensive efficiency, San Antonio is giving up the third most rebounds in the league. With LaVine sidelined for the past 10, Vucevic has scored at least 40 DraftKings points six times and has topped 50 DraftKings points twice. Overall, with LaVine off the court this season, Vucevic is collecting 1.2 DraftKings PPM with a 25.1% usage rate, which is a 1.5 percentage point upgrade from his average for the season.
Vucevic has 50 fantasy-point upside tonight and is especially appealing at only $8,100 on DraftKings.
Top Value: Bismack Biyombo vs. Indiana Pacers – $4,700 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel
Biyombo is a risky target given his unpredictable role, but this is a perfect matchup vs. the Pacers, which makes him worth taking a flier on in GPPs. As noted above, this game’s total is the highest on the board (247 points) and in addition to their league-high pace and defensive woes, Indiana is very susceptible to opposing centers, allowing the most points in the paint by a huge margin. Biyombo strictly operates in the paint and has double-double upside in this beautiful spot.
The veteran is amassing 0.8 DraftKings PPM this season and has topped 20 DraftKings points in 11 of his 19 games.
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