On the menu for Thursday is a five-game slate. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic vs. Atlanta Hawks – $12,600 DraftKings
Hosting the Hawks, who rank 27th in defensive efficiency and are playing their second game in two nights, Doncic should feast tonight and is the undisputed No.1 overall play on the slate. When these clubs last met in late January, Doncic had a historical night, scoring a career-high 72 points en route to an eye-popping 101.5 DraftKings points. Obviously, we can’t expect this type of performance, but Doncic should record nothing less than 60 DraftKings points tonight. The superstar has only failed to exceed 60 DraftKings points once in his last eight starts, and the Mavs boast the highest implied team total on the slate by nearly six points (120.25 points), via FantasyLabs’ Vegas page.
When at home and playing behind an implied team total of 120 points or more, Doncic is amassing 62.9 DraftKings PPG this season (13 games), via the Trends Tool. Despite the slate-high salary, the guard is rating as a top-three value on the board in our NBA models.
Top Value: Miles McBride vs. Sacramento Kings – $5,900 DraftKings
Since joining the Knicks’ starting lineup eight games ago, McBride has generated 33.4 DraftKings PPG, thanks to a whopping 44.7 minutes per game. In fact, when we compare the entire NBA’s last eight games, no player in the league has seen more playing time than McBride, by nearly 3.0 minutes per game. With Julius Randle (shoulder) and OG Anunoby (elbow) remaining out and Josh Hart (wrist) questionable, the insane volume for McBride isn’t going anywhere, and with a guaranteed role of over 40 minutes, the guard must be considered for all formats for this five-game slate.
The Kings rank 13th in pace, compared to New York, who ranked dead last night, and McBride should top 30 DraftKings in this up-tempo matchup.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Jalen Green vs. Golden State Warriors – $8,800 DraftKings
Tonight is a must-win for the Rockets. They host the Warriors, who they trail by four games for the final Play-In spot in the West with only six games remaining. If Houston loses this contest, they will be essentially eliminated from the postseason, and this game should deliver a playoff-like atmosphere. Green is, without a doubt, the Rockets’ most important player with Alperen Sengun (ankle) on the shelf, and Green should see huge minutes in this must-win situation.
With Sengun inactive this season, Green is leading Houston with a 31.3% usage rate – which is a 3.2 percentage point upgrade from his season average – and 48.3 DraftKings PPG (10 games), via the On/Off Tool. Green has a ceiling over 50 DraftKings points tonight and is only expected to be around 13% owned on DraftKings, which is relatively low for a five-game slate.
Top Value: Cam Whitmore Vs. Golden State Warriors – $4,100 DraftKings
Whitmore is also a viable target from the Warriors tonight. The rookie returned from a nine-game absence due to a knee injury two games ago and has produced 22.5 DraftKings points in 22.6 minutes per game.
Overall, Whitmore has scored over 20 DraftKings points in five of his last eight contests. The 19-year-old supplies a strong 1.2 DraftKings PPM with Sengun off the court and is one of the best pure punts this short slate has to offer.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Paul George vs. Denver Nuggets – $8,400 DraftKings
George has a ton of merit at this price tag, with Kawhi Leonard (knee) inactive. With the forward off the court this season, George’s usage has jumped 3.9 percentage points to 31.3% – both of which are team-highs for this situation – resulting in 1.3 DraftKings PPM for the veteran. The Nuggets present a subpar matchup, with them ranking 10th in defensive efficiency, but George is amassing 40.1 DraftKings PPG against the defending champions in three matchups this season.
In his final meeting of the season with Denver, George is a safe bet for at least 40 DraftKings points.
Top Value: TIm Hardaway Jr. vs. Atlanta Hawks – $4,000 DraftKings
While his floor is shaky, Hardaway Jr. is a cheap way to gain a share of the Mavs’ slate-high implied team total (120 points). As noted above, the Hawks rank 27th in defensive efficiency, and they are on the second leg of a back-to-back. While Hardaway’s game log is inconsistent, Josh Green (ankle) remains sidelined, which means a role around 25 minutes off the bench for Hardaway Jr.
The veteran has had two outbursts of at least 29 DraftKings points in his last five and has a chance to top 20 DraftKings points, with the Mavs expected to produce a ton of points tonight.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Jalen Johnson at Dallas Mavericks – $6,900 DraftKings
Johnson is a tough fade in this slate-high total vs. the Mavs (228 points). The forward was incredible last night vs. the Pistons, tallying the first triple-double of his career, resulting in a career-best 76 DraftKings points. With this effort, Johnson is now providing 47.5 DraftKings PPG for the five starts he has made without Trae Young (hand) and Saddiq Bey (knee) this season. Both these players remain out Thursday, and in those five contests sans them, Johnson handled a 26.7% usage rate, which is a team-high 7.4 percentage point increase from his season average.
While Dallas has improved defensively as the season comes to a close – they rank fourth in defensive rating over their last 10 games – Johnson is criminally underpriced right now and is a must-play for this short slate.
Top Value: Draymond Green at Houston Rockets – $6,400 DraftKings
With a chance to essentially eliminate the Rockets from catching the Warriors for the final Play-In spot in the West, Green should step in tonight and post a solid stat line. Not only is eliminating Houston important, but Golden State is only two games behind the Lakers for the No.9 seed, so every game from here on out is crucial for the Warriors.
If we exclude March 27th, when Green was ejected in the first quarter vs. the Magic, the veteran has surpassed 30 DraftKings points in four of his past seven starts, most notably with a 59 DraftKings point double-double vs. the Spurs. Plus, Golden State is favored by four points tonight, and when competing as a favorite this season, Green is collecting 32.1 DraftKings PPG (30 games), via the Trends Tool.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic at Los Angeles Clippers – $11,900 DraftKings
With FantasyLabs projecting him to be less than 5% owned on DraftKings, Jokic is an incredible GPP play tonight, and building around him for some lineups with the hope that Jamal Murray (questionable, knee) remains sidelined is a sharp strategy. Jokic is coming off a 77 DraftKings point explosion vs. the Spurs with Murray inactive Tuesday and is supplying 64 DraftKings PPG with the guard out this season (18 games). In those tilts, Jokic’s usage and assist rates increased by 3.9 and 7.2 percentage points, respectively. Overall, the center generates a whopping 1.9 DraftKings PPM with Murray off the floor this season.
If the guard remains out, Jokic has the potential to expose this struggling Clippers’ defense for over 70 DraftKings points. Over their last 10, Los Angeles ranks 26th in defensive rating.
Top Value: Daniel Gafford vs. Atlanta Hawks – $5,700 DraftKings
Gafford is the No.1 value on the slate in our NBA models and is an easy choice with Derreck Lively (knee) out. Gafford and Lively usually split the Mavs’ center minutes pretty evenly when both are available, and with the latter missing, Gafford naturally will see a few extra minutes of work. Since joining Dallas at the trade deadline, the center has played four games without Lively, and in those contests, Gafford thrived with 36.9 DraftKings PPG.
Expect a similar result from the big man tonight, and make Gafford one of your core plays for this five-game slate.
